Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,163
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


Typhoon Tip
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro ensembles having so much spread are definitely eye opening. Hopefully it’s not setting the stage for a rug pull to a gfs like solution 

There was far more consensus on Monday than there is today...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro ensembles having so much spread are definitely eye opening. Hopefully it’s not setting the stage for a rug pull to a gfs like solution 

It’s falling on deaf ears .  But it’s a issue that I hope goes away . That EPS was about as poor of a look as you could have for such a amazing OP crushing run . People want snow .

I would love for 18z Op to be within 25 miles of 12z but I think ..well...it’s set up to be entertaining . Hope Garbage GFS make a tickle left at 5pm

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not too worried about the EPS spread...the superior res of the OP should have a firm handle on this at day 2. There was also some decent split at times with respect to MLK, which never made a bit of difference, ultimately.

I agree we are past the time of ignoring the OP in favor of the ensembles. But I don't think we can say that there's still not high sensitivity to the timing of the capture

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...hey, if I grab a 40-burger, I'll extended him a lifelong salute.

if it looks like you have any chance of that in 24 hours, he will have already come back with a new 3 paragraph post about a 60 spot somewhere

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, JC-CT said:

I agree we are past the time of ignoring the OP in favor of the ensembles. But I don't think we can say that there's still not high sensitivity to the timing of the capture

I'm not saying that there isn't high sensitivity, but I trust the OP at this range. I will say, I think that the JUNO rug got pulled out from NYC at like hr 24....but I'll take my chances.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s falling on deaf ears .  But it’s a issue that I hope goes away . That EPS was about as poor of a look as you could have for such a amazing OP crushing run . People want snow .

I would love for 18z Op to be within 25 miles of 12z but I think ..well...it’s set up to be entertaining . Hope Garbage GFS make a tickle left at 5pm

Yes, it’s easy to get gassed about op, but eps looking so poor def makes me pause. 70% chance of 6 or more inches is nothing to sneeze at, but it means 1/3 of the members are nothing burgers 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, dan11295 said:

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

All you need is 12 hours in a storm like that.

And RE deaf ears...I hear it, understand, I'm just simply not as concerned as some others.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Well--that might make the name all the more appropriate.  :)

For the purposes of the board though, regardless of what they call this, we should all refer to it as James.

Look, I love the sentiment, but I'd just rather be a little bit more confident that a large chunk of the subforum won't look back on this storm...unfondly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

Frb8/9,2013 our little city received 36” which mainly came down within 8-12 hours…

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

27 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

As mentioned the spread in the 12z EPS has only grown larger from 06z and 00z. Not really what you like to see this close to an event.

What surprised me was how many members have really ugly solutions. For example, 30% of members have <6" of snow for Boston. That's not an insignificant amount and it has increased from 00z.

As others have mentioned it looks like two clusters in the EPS, which could be increasing spread despite there only being two "right" answers. To me it looks like the EPS got a little worse aloft in the mean, so I would expect probabilities and whatnot to come down slightly.

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX just hoisted watches here, Must of liked the euro.

Or the day shift was only 50% confident you might get 6 inches. :lol:

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...