Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Patfan1987]

Just listened to Harvey not even a peep about backing down. 

Same with fish.

[JC-CT]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Final call. We kept our original forecast pretty much the same with amounts just tilted the axis of snowfall a bit to orient it more SW to NE. Tri-state area stayed very similar with the 12-20" range extending farther west across long island.

CT:

Tri-state:

CT warnings:

Lol every map on this board does the Tolland split. So cruel.

43 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Well this was an odd sight… are the seagulls on to something? 

Yeah, a Walmart.

[CoastalWx]

Kiss of death from Bouchard

[TalcottWx]

4 minutes ago, Patfan1987 said:

Same with fish.

Thats every station besides 7. Love JR. I didn't see what he did though. I refuse to watch after they laid me off two weeks before Christmas. Classy move! WHDH is great for for the established talent. And a small group of people. They grossly underpay in every way compared to every other station in the city. Just keep it in kind if you give them your viewership. A lot of great people work there. The very higher ups, just don't care. I loved working there. All my coworkers. So many legends. Hausle, Cooper, Khazei, Thompson, Sciacca, Amarasino. I would have shut my mouth and worked there forever if I could have. 

[TheSnowman]

I just E-mailed Pete Bouchard to ask Why....  

[Henry's Weather]

I have a hard time imagining that this solution doesn't croak anyone from a line from Hartford to Nashua

[MegaMike]

A good chunk of the storm has been offshore for the past several cycles. Prior to that, the models likely had an easier time resolving the convection on their own (explicitly or with a parameterization). Now that part of the storm is offshore (and is still developing), the models are more reliant on data assimilation to create an accurate initialization state to accurately predict the interaction between both disturbances. Remember when we thought it was weird that radiosondes were dropped downstream (Atlantic) as opposed to upstream (Pacific) of the disturbance(s)? This was likely the reason, in my opinion.

Let the storm mature and let the PBL stabilize further south as the night progresses. Data assimilation will improve and so will NWP. I wouldn't be surprised if the system becomes more consolidated/further west by 00 UTC (as other mets suggested). 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kiss of death from Bouchard

He’s always been ...bad 

[EastonSN+]

Ryan's on tv now!

[Ginx snewx]

50 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Well this was an odd sight… are the seagulls on to something? 

I have yet to see a massive coastal where the seagulls didn't mass inland. Of course they know.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Ryan's on tv now!

Clothes on or off?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Lol every map on this board does the Tolland split. So cruel.

Yeah, a Walmart.

I am certain it’s on purpose except for SNE wx guys 

[JC-CT]

Just now, MegaMike said:

A good chunk of the storm has been offshore for the past several cycles. Prior to that, the models likely had an easier time resolving the convection on their own (explicitly or with a parameterization). Now that part of the storm is offshore (and is still developing), the models are more reliant on data assimilation to create an accurate initialization state to accurately predict the interaction between both disturbances. Remember when we thought it was weird that radiosondes were dropped downstream (Atlantic) as opposed to upstream (Pacific) of the disturbance(s)? This was likely the reason, in my opinion.

Let the storm mature and let the PBL stabilize further south as the night progresses. Data assimilation will improve and so will NWP. I wouldn't be surprised if the system becomes more consolidated/further west by 00 UTC (as other mets suggested). 

 

This stuff does fascinate me. So I'd intuitively think that the knowledge gained by seeing parts of the storms formation into reality would far exceed any initialization complexities...like, the difficult initialization of reality is still better than an easy initialization of a future cyclogenesis event out in model fantasy time. Maybe not.

[CoastalWx]

I thought about the 2-15-15 bust earlier. That was a good one. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I thought about the 2-15-15 bust earlier. That was a good one. 

What did that end up doing

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this doesn't exactly scream "strung out low....lower impact storm for SNE"....it's literally how you would probably draw it up on an idealized setup

 

 

 

Post of the thread in my opinion ^^  

I've posted the same image my self scratching head like how in the f is this thing not spreading more snow farther W with that 300 mb evac fan....

Next run, even more bullshitty -

I dunno. Chalk it up a sometimes weird things happen I guess.

[EastonSN+]

TWC is now focusing on the winds rather than heavy snow.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought about the 2-15-15 bust earlier. That was a good one. 

Oh my god was that the “all rain East of 495” storm where I cleared like 18” in Peabody? 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, JC-CT said:

What did that end up doing

Like Will said, it was verbatim maybe a 5-10” deal? But man all the red flags were there. Good H5 setup, 700 low in good spot, but all models taking WCB into Maine. Instead the thing blew up and heavy snow blossomed to eastern CT into NE Ma. Cantore had epic TSSN in Plymouth. I drove to work in snow so heavy, I had to follow the guardrail on the expressway so I knew when the road was turning. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

Oh my god was that the “all rain East of 495” storm where I cleared like 18” in Peabody? 

I think you’re thinking of the March 2013 storm?

[CoastalWx]

But others are also right too. When various models with various physics packages All  show this stupid double low, you kind of can’t ignore it either.

[BostonWX]

The more panic and negative posts I see the more optimistic I’m getting 

[HimoorWx]

1 minute ago, SlantStickers Anonymous said:

Oh my god was that the “all rain East of 495” storm where I cleared like 18” in Peabody? 

No, that was the March 2013 storm which dumped two feet on me.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Like Will said, it was verbatim maybe a 5-10” deal? But man all the red flags were there. Good H5 setup, 700 low in good spot, but all models taking WCB into Maine. Instead the thing blew up and heavy snow blossomed to eastern CT into NE Ma. Cantore had epic TSSN in Plymouth. I drove to work in snow so heavy, I had to follow the guardrail on the expressway so I knew when the road was turning. 

I'm trying to determine if this was the mystery model bust @weathafellaand I were trying to figure out during the 1/7 storm discussion.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think you’re thinking of the March 2013 storm?

Ahhh yeah that’s the one! That was amazing, my most memorable positive bust 

[Wonkis]

54 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

Well this was an odd sight… are the seagulls on to something? 

 

There's a great paper "Seabirds Perched on Big-Box Stores Prior to East Coast Storms." 2017?

I'll dig up the link, but the premise is you can approximate the QPF by multiplying the number of perched birds x .04

 

[CT Rain]

It is strange to see a lot of the TV people ramping up and the BOX AFD bordering on Armageddon. I don't really see it after the 12z runs and the data since - particularly in the Hartford area. Running with a 12-20" total was just too much for me given the guidance. Even getting more than a foot seems like a challenge at this point.

I do like the look for S CT look for a nice burst overnight.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

I love the enthusiasm... but that BOX AFD seems completely divorced from the reality of every piece of guidance today.

Yeah ..I don't get that.  are there conference calls they didn't mention with NOAA head quarters -what... dunno. That doesn't seem right. 

[dryslot]

54 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah...

I think I'm pretty good, but I can't computer all this environmental info in my head. I have to base it on something. And right now I don't see a lot of evidence for high confidence historic storm. Locally? Maybe. But to do historic at the 4 major climate sites you need at least 17 at BDL and PVD to be in the top 10 2 day snowfalls, and 22 at ORH and BOS.

Who's call is it at the WFO?

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

Guidance supports more than the QPF maps indicate. I’m no met either, but from what I have read the surface is also not supported by obs, the low is more west and is deepening more than expected. I mean look at this, the 12z euro which is “bad” qpf wise has 3 CLOSED CONTOURS off the cape. Bernie Rayno said on his livestream that a good rule of thumb is 1 foot of snow for each closed contour. It starts closing off south of Long Island and continues to deepen. 
 

 Problem is you can make the contour interval whatever you want it to be. Traditionally it’s 6dm at H5 which is probably the voodoo Rayno is referring to. As you can see, TT uses 3dm.