Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just gonna check 12z EURO, then its models off, radar on and weenie out

Yup agreed….gotta just enjoy after the euro.

This thing has a fabulous look at H5 and H7. Let’s watch it unfold over the next 24-36 hrs.  Already snowing here so it feels and looks like the storm has started here already. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said:

A sentence I never thought I'd read

I just freaked out at the thought of a nasty dry slot..I never expect to jackpot.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

Weenie blob over my house.

[PhineasC]

What are we really thinking in terms of ratios? 

[dendrite]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Weenie blob over my house.

VT dry humping me

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS

Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like  ~.7" of QPF here and that map printing out like 20" of snow?   Maybe if all .7" were under a ripping deffy band ok, but if deffy is east .7 qpf might yield 7".

[Chrisrotary12]

40 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we starting to lose our collective composure?

We've been tracking this storm for 10 days. So we lost it about a week ago.

[mattm4242]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just freaked out at the thought of a nasty dry slot..I never expect to jackpot.

You’ve nailed this thing almost from the start, crazy impressive.

Where do you think does jack? South shore and the 495 area seem like the most mentioned spots.

[Torch Tiger]

[JC-CT]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs still has a spread

The spread this late is incredible 

 

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly 

This is for down here. I will post your area.

 

This is just the dual low structure showing up.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

What are we really thinking in terms of ratios? 

Just a guess....generally 12:1 outside of I95.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd actually be okay with 2' over 3' if it means you grab a foot...I don't need absolute jack, though its nice.

Thanks man. We appreciate that. I'll send you 3 dongs if I can get a dong and half....

[dendrite]

Just now, radarman said:

Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like  ~.7" of QPF here and that map printing out like 20" of snow?   Maybe if all .7" were under a ripping deffy band ok, but if deffy is east .7 qpf might yield 7".

At those amounts/rates you start dealing with the weight of snow upon itself too...even if you measure every 6/8/12hrs. Add in the wind and 25:1 in theory probably becomes half that.

[ROOSTA]

NO DRY SLUTS... (typo) oops I mean NO DRYSLOT.
Rooting for a stall thus, higher jacks!   

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, mattm4242 said:

You’ve nailed this thing almost from the start, crazy impressive.

Where do you think does jack? South shore and the 495 area seem like the most mentioned spots.

I should have a presentation ready around like 3 or 4....I have a group soon, so I will probably just wait on EURO, then write.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like  ~.7" of QPF here and that map printing out like 20" of snow?   Maybe if all .7" were under a ripping deffy band ok, but if deffy is east .7 qpf might yield 7".

Thje DGZ is super deep on a lot of these soundings, so I'm guessing that is where those ratios are coming from. I'm skeptical of huge ratios....but they will be over 10 to 1.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

At those amounts/rates you start dealing with the weight of snow upon itself too...even if you measure every 6/8/12hrs. Add in the wind and 25:1 in theory probably becomes half that.

Think 15-20:1 is doable up here? I usually have little wind in these events either.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

At those amounts/rates you start dealing with the weight of snow upon itself too...even if you measure every 6/8/12hrs. Add in the wind and 25:1 in theory probably becomes half that.

I'm not sure if that map would factor wind in?

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its proprietary, its explicitly says it, but seems most akin to Cobb....

Do you have the qpf map?

[MarkO]

Power outage expectations.

Anyone, please help me out. We've got our annual BOD meeting up in Waterville Estates Sunday at 11AM. Not expecting much up there. Maybe 6" and a little wind. But 75% of the owners are 2nd home owners, most of which primary residences are within the Blizzard Warning area. My thoughts are that it would be prudent to postpone the meeting due to power outages. With the high winds forecast through Sunday AM at least, I believe power companies may not even be allowed to work on the lines. 

Any thoughts form the experts about anticipated power outages appreciated.

 

I should mention the meeting will be available via Zoom, but I'm concerned they will not have prepared to log in.

[JC-CT]

RAP spreads the love

[weathafella]

CMC just shat on itself.

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

CMC just shat on itself.

I'm guessing it did the exact same thing as the rgem.

[radarman]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Thje DGZ is super deep on a lot of these soundings, so I'm guessing that is where those ratios are coming from. I'm skeptical of huge ratios....but they will be over 10 to 1.

Tend to agree because I'm hoping/thinking deformation comes west of (some) progs, but if not there's a pretty good chance we baking powder as we did in 2015.

[Ginx snewx]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice trend for Columbia, CT.

Just started snowing here in Columbia. By the way when you said you looked closer at the NAM and saw  12 to 18 max I assume you didn't take ratios into play or look at the 3K. 

[OrangeCTWX]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

CMC just shat on itself.

That doesn’t sound good.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I'm guessing it did the exact same thing as the rgem.

Yes

[ROOSTA]

Pins and needles, crushed dendrites will settle like an avalanche. Expect the 18-24" amounts (hate to say it) could be cut to half.
I think this is my first detrimental post ever. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just started snowing here in Columbia. By the way when you said you looked closer at the NAM and saw  12 to 18 max I assume you didn't take ratios into play or look at the 3K. 

Yes on ratios, and I was alluding to 12k.

[TheSnowman]

I wrote up early.  When does the Euro start?  Right now I'll get ready and pack as IF I'm leaving.  But this Duel Low is scary.   

 

REMEMBER:  I will have to drive-in from Buffalo from 10:30PMish to 5:30/6AM