Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie definitely very elongated low

[snowman21]

Blizzard warnings added for all of RI and the rest of eastern MA.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie definitely very elongated low

Ugh not good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie definitely very elongated low

Has output drastically changed?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Ugh not good.

Everything is on track . It changes nothing lol

[MarkO]

That's quite an expansive area of BW. For posterity. Updated to include coastal CT (just upgraded)

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Has output drastically changed?

It's not a big deal for eastern peeps....but I does limit some of the westward expanse of the heaviest precip.

[Typhoon Tip]

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man H5 looks great. I dunno....I feel like the low should concentrate near the vort max or at least the other low should have a shorter life span.

Agreed ...

I'm not "sweating" these peregrinated model solutions like this...  The situation is sooo sensitive to those convective feedback processes. It's really like it's outside the technological ability of the models to figure that out ahead - almost fractal/chaos ?  you know -   "if it happens, it happens"

When it doesn't, we get 00z NAM-like solutions.  When it does, we get GFS.  GFS has been wholly and totally committed to pearling lows all along. It's clear that "its" feedback dumbs this from a magnificent to just above medium impact.   

I dunno -seems this is the deterministic rub with this particular storm - the unknown wildcard.   Like we joked before, "we can be 100% that we are going to the casino; what happens there, not so much ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MarkO said:

That's quite an expansive area of BW. For posterity

I mentioned in Wednesday's write-up that blizzard conditions east of about a ORH to ASH line, so makes sense to me

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's not a big deal for eastern peeps....but I does limit some of the westward expanse of the heaviest precip.

I think we are just obsessing over the trees in the midst of a historically expansive forest-

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie definitely very elongated low

Maybe I’m wrong, but to me, this mostly affects those on the western edges. The output is changing very little east of like ORH

[weatherwiz]

blizzard warnings into coastal CT

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we are just obsessing over the trees in the midst of a historic forest-

Its just worriers worrying over nada 

[MarkO]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned in Wednesday's write-up that blizzard conditions east of about a ORH to ASH line, so makes sense to me

Do you (or anyone) remember the last time it was west to Worcester?

[PhineasC]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe I’m wrong, but to me, this mostly affects those on the western edges. The output is changing very little east of like ORH

You have been locked in for 20"+ for days. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe I’m wrong, but to me, this mostly affects those on the western edges. The output is changing very little east of like ORH

On behalf of all our western-fringed friends: NO SHIT

[wxeyeNH]

Good Morning

I have not been on the forums since last evening.  I have not gone back and read the many pages either.

Quick thoughts on my layman read of the models without getting into the weeds.

 Some of last evening and overnight runs were epic

There now seems to be a slight shift east again. 

The models are picking up this double barreled low.  The lead one seems to be mucking up the super strong solutions.

Just noise differences along the immediate coast but big differences for us on the edge

Takeaway  I hope this trend with the lead low does not continue and shifts east.  On the other hand won't there be a deformation band well inland?  Sometimes there is a double max way out west.  Maybe for me (Im selfish) that would set up here and along the Conn river valley

Enjoy the storm.  Going to be an enjoyable ride watching it play out

[snowman21]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

blizzard warnings into coastal CT

New London County.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

blizzard warnings into coastal CT

Yes, there and also Long Island, except for for Western Long Island. I wouldn't be surprised if they extend these blizzard warnings through most of Connecticut may be stopping around Litchfield County

[ORH_wxman]

I can't believe all the western peeps are worrying over the RGEM/NAM when it still gives E MA 2 feet.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I think we're all in agreement that naming winter storms is a stupid practice...but I can't help but notice Ch3 in CT has gone with the name 'Bobby'. I can't think of a more underwhelming name for a storm of this magnitude. Cringeworthy.

[dendrite]

zero point zero

 

[TalcottWx]

38 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, anyway....sweating a floor of 15" is a first world weenie problem to be sure.

He's back! The ray we all know and love!

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

On behalf of all our western-fringed friends: NO SHIT

I'm not letting myself get concerned.  In almost EVERY big event, I end up with 6-12 more than forecast/modeled.  I'll stick with historical precedent on this one.

[MarkO]

Reed Timmer heading to the Cape.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

zero point zero

 

There really is a chart for everything.

[Mr. Windcredible!]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

zero point zero

 

already out of date. OKX has them issued for LI/SE CT, so they should be at zero now too

[snowman21]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yes, there and also Long Island, except for for Western Long Island. I wouldn't be surprised if they extend these blizzard warnings through most of Connecticut may be stopping around Litchfield County

The rest of Connecticut probably won't meet the wind criteria.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

On behalf of all our western-fringed friends: NO SHIT

First of all, if you even want to say Western fringes maybe slightly affected.. Then we're talkin back in Eastern New York. At this point Connecticut itself is pretty much locked into Where We Are as far as accumulations. I'm so surprised that the fear of things changing drastically are that much of a concern LOL. At this point these slight little changes mean nothing. I wouldn't be surprised if this afternoon they go the other way, and then go back the other way again tonight. We're getting what we're getting and there will be some surprises good and bad. So just enjoy what we're getting because we weren't getting any of this a day and a half ago. ;-)

[Patrick-02540]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I think we're all in agreement that naming winter storms is a stupid practice...but I can't help but notice Ch3 in CT has gone with the name 'Bobby'. I can't think of a more underwhelming name for a storm of this magnitude. Cringeworthy.

They were just looking for a gender neutral name.  That's the new criteria.