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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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As I mentioned many days ago that warm core/sub tropical structure on guidance is causing chaos (additional uncertainty) in the phasing and resolving the best area for surface pressure falls. More tropical-like it is, the later the H5 capture.

Outside of the SE coast, SST’s are not supportive of a tropical system. Period. So the system will quickly gravitate towards baroclinicity. The question remains how fast? I’d hedge sooner vs later given the temps over the northern Gulf Stream are closer to 70F vs low 80’s during tropical season. Conversely if this was late November I’d be hedging the other way.

I do think the hook back scenario is likely and it will be more pronounced the longer it takes the tropical component to shake its “warm-core” predominance. 

559A1BCD-8B5A-4634-AA8A-D3CDE602AFDE.gif

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just catching up on euro and 06z runs. Wow to that euro run and wow to that NAM run. Still a little leery about the dumbelling elongated solutions. Looks like 06z reggie did that with a solid bump east. 

Taking in to account all of the various guidance; I thought the 00z Euro run seemed very logical from a meteorological perspective. We've seen countless times in the past that its tough to slow down a freight train and that the capture and "stall" typically occurs a little north of where expected. i.e. not south of MVY like the NAM, but east of the Cape like the Euro.

If one were to take the Euro 10:1 snowfall map and increase it by 20-30% across eastern and western areas. And by 40-50% in the central areas where one thinks the death band sets up. That would be a reasonable forecast. Basically 20"+ in the east and central. 10-20 in central-west and dropping off from there.

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1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

The Euro and the NAM seem to be on their own with the heavy precip and westward extent. Some of the other hi-res models aren’t as bullish for central and western New England. Wish this felt like a slam dunk for everyone but waking up still feel like there’s still some details to sort out today that will affect this board. Only consensus is for 12” or more east of 95/495… that’s about it and we are 18 hours from go… weird…

Ignore the Euro? Been rock solid and lead horse. Save a horse ....

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