Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO did tick west a hair for western zones, but not enough to pork easties...perfect run

 

[Newman]

Just booked a Beverly, MA AirBnB for 5 of my meteorology classmates/friends and I this weekend... and wow that Euro run just comes out. Boy am I giddy, I'll be posting in this subforum to relay obs from my location tomorrow and Saturday

[SRRTA22]

You guys around boston are gonna get creamed...congrats

[ice1972]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Agree. I'm fine with that. That has been consistent in my mind, even with the wild NAM run. 

A tick west helps me, but I'd rather they underperform (but get something) than see the E Mass zone dryslot. That'd be painful to watch. 

I honest to god don't know how, but you also said winter would be over in 6 weeks in like mid December  

I know you hated that but I wasn’t wrong…..6 weeks from mid December is basically now and this storm is probably the storm of the season….it’s gonna melt next week right?

[WeatherWilly]

I never thought I would say the words 4 feet of snow anywhere near here.

[The 4 Seasons]

Goodnight all

im just gonna leave this here..

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Thats actually a decent shift W on the RAP

[Roger Smith]

Can't wait for the 945 mb low on the 06z NAM, and its three victory laps around the Gulf of Maine. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Starting to get real dicey for outer cape and ACK, which my first map planned on. I may not change the map much qualitatively, just quantitatively.

[SRRTA22]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm jealous 

Why? We still get the biggest snowstorm of the season

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Just booked a Beverly, MA AirBnB for 5 of my meteorology classmates/friends and I this weekend... and wow that Euro run just comes out. Boy am I giddy, I'll be posting in this subforum to relay obs from my location tomorrow and Saturday

Good choice.  North shore will be fun.

[MuddyWx]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Just booked a Beverly, MA AirBnB for 5 of my meteorology classmates/friends and I this weekend... and wow that Euro run just comes out. Boy am I giddy, I'll be posting in this subforum to relay obs from my location tomorrow and Saturday

nice! another in Beverly. should be awesome

[MuddyWx]

we gust

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Good choice.  North shore will be fun.

Yea, that area will clean up with wind and maybe some oes..

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I know you hated that but I wasn’t wrong…..6 weeks from mid December is basically now and this storm is probably the storm of the season….it’s gonna melt next week right?

I don't hate it, I just find it funny. February is to KU winter storms what September is to hurricanes. It's the peak of the season, regardless of sun angle, warmer climo relative to January, etc. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm jealous 

NYC area/SW CT will do just fine with this. For 3-4 days it's been on the wall that this would be an eastern New England focused storm. A foot maybe in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. And there are often surprises on the western QPF gradient.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

NYC area/SW CT will do just fine with this. For 3-4 days it's been on the wall that this would be an eastern New England focused storm. A foot maybe in NYC is nothing to sneeze at. And there are often surprises on the western QPF gradient.

Agree

[wxsniss]

Not worth much at this point, but will be interesting to trend... 0z HREF:

[ice1972]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't hate it, I just find it funny. February is to KU winter storms what September is to hurricanes. It's the peak of the season, regardless of sun angle, warmer climo relative to January, etc. 

that’s fine and all but in September I’m not looking for rain pack - so the lone timber trasher is fine with me….to get this storm now after a really futile effort by winter to lay down a decent pack is disappointing - as usual…..I’ll take it I guess but still bummed what could have been…..I have high standards

[TheSnowman]

So do I come in??  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

So do I come in??  

Euro backed off on the RI screw hole

[wxsniss]

8 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

we gust

Yeah I'd be surprised if blizzard warning is limited to southeast MA... winds >30 knots for hours seem likely for much of coastal eastern MA

[40/70 Benchmark]

Someone in the southern half zone will get 40"+

Keeps edging NW...

[George001]

18 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I know you hated that but I wasn’t wrong…..6 weeks from mid December is basically now and this storm is probably the storm of the season….it’s gonna melt next week right?

Nope we still have 2 months left, yeah it’s gonna melt some next week but the long range models are indicating the warm up will be only a few days long, and then we reload this pattern we are in now with a big ridge out west. Winter isn’t anywhere near over, I strongly believe that there will be multiple blizzards this year. I agree this will be the storm of the year though, and likely the storm of the decade as well.

[mattb65]

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Even with 3" qpf it's tough because you need ideal snow growth for hours.   The winds will have a say in that. 

Winds and drifting are probably going to make it tough to measure accurately in this storm.  Having said that,  some of the soundings show an absurdly wide dendritic growth zone with huge lift especially in the deform band area. The ratios and rates for whomever gets lucky enough to get under this band will probably see extreme rates with high ratios.

I can't recall too many storms where the snow depth maps are significantly more than the 10:1 ratio maps. Wishing I could be back in Boston for this one. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't hate it, I just find it funny. February is to KU winter storms what September is to hurricanes. It's the peak of the season, regardless of sun angle, warmer climo relative to January, etc. 

I think ocean temps keep dropping until March, or February as a peak season for snow with onshore winds makes sense, especially if one thinks of sun angle as being something of a sine wave, not changing much a month either side of the Solstice, and changing most rapidly at the Equinox.  'Relatively' low sun angle for the colder offshore waters.

[MarkO]

No doubt blizzard warnings hoisted for coast and inland 20 or so miles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run is also shoving the low level fronto a little further inland into eastern Mass, too, which will negate losing the mid level band if that continues, as things tic west a bit more. Some hints of it now briefly getting back to near my area down to Wilmington and through metro west into Norwood area at height, before collapsing back to coast, now that this is tracking a bit closer

[ice1972]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Nope we still have 2 months left, yeah it’s gonna melt some next week but the long range models are indicating the warm up will be only a few days long, and then we reload this pattern we are in now with a big ridge out west. Winter isn’t anywhere near over, I strongly believe that there will be multiple blizzards this year. I agree this will be the storm of the year though, and likely the storm of the decade as well.

Don’t kid yourself….there’s like 3 weeks left to work with - after that the elevation idiots have the advantage for like a couple more weeks then it’s Morch and we all know how that goes….

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm jealous 

Yea but it wouldn’t take much to overperform qpf from mid level goodies there. You’re in the same boat as wct peeps.