Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[tiger_deF]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro ensembles having so much spread are definitely eye opening. Hopefully it’s not setting the stage for a rug pull to a gfs like solution 

There was far more consensus on Monday than there is today...

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Can we name this storm "James"?

This storm is going to hit the Gulf Stream and just explode RIP James 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm kidding, jesus lol

Roger's not lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not too worried about the EPS spread...the superior res of the OP should have a firm handle on this at day 2. There was also some decent split at times with respect to MLK, which never made a bit of difference, ultimately.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The euro ensembles having so much spread are definitely eye opening. Hopefully it’s not setting the stage for a rug pull to a gfs like solution 

It’s falling on deaf ears .  But it’s a issue that I hope goes away . That EPS was about as poor of a look as you could have for such a amazing OP crushing run . People want snow .

I would love for 18z Op to be within 25 miles of 12z but I think ..well...it’s set up to be entertaining . Hope Garbage GFS make a tickle left at 5pm

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Roger's not lol

I know...hey, if I grab a 40-burger, I'll extended him a lifelong salute.

[dan11295]

The dual lows plus EPS members are telling me to keep expectations in a little bit of check. Still minor timing issues which could have sig impacts to realized amounts.

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not too worried about the EPS spread...the superior res of the OP should have a firm handle on this at day 2. There was also some decent split at times with respect to MLK, which never made a bit of difference, ultimately.

I agree we are past the time of ignoring the OP in favor of the ensembles. But I don't think we can say that there's still not high sensitivity to the timing of the capture

[JC-CT]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know...hey, if I grab a 40-burger, I'll extended him a lifelong salute.

if it looks like you have any chance of that in 24 hours, he will have already come back with a new 3 paragraph post about a 60 spot somewhere

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I agree we are past the time of ignoring the OP in favor of the ensembles. But I don't think we can say that there's still not high sensitivity to the timing of the capture

I'm not saying that there isn't high sensitivity, but I trust the OP at this range. I will say, I think that the JUNO rug got pulled out from NYC at like hr 24....but I'll take my chances.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

if it looks like you have any chance of that in 24 hours, he will have already come back with a new 3 paragraph post about a 60 spot somewhere

Hey, 'cmon...he's been dishing out 3 paragraphs about 60 burgers for years...have some respect for Roger.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s falling on deaf ears .  But it’s a issue that I hope goes away . That EPS was about as poor of a look as you could have for such a amazing OP crushing run . People want snow .

I would love for 18z Op to be within 25 miles of 12z but I think ..well...it’s set up to be entertaining . Hope Garbage GFS make a tickle left at 5pm

Yes, it’s easy to get gassed about op, but eps looking so poor def makes me pause. 70% chance of 6 or more inches is nothing to sneeze at, but it means 1/3 of the members are nothing burgers 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The Nam hopefully keeps the dopamine drip feeding us 

[dan11295]

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dan11295 said:

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

All you need is 12 hours in a storm like that.

And RE deaf ears...I hear it, understand, I'm just simply not as concerned as some others.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

4 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

Mmm, sooo meaty.

[moneypitmike]

12 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

probably should be extra certain the cape doesn't rain first

Well--that might make the name all the more appropriate. 

For the purposes of the board though, regardless of what they call this, we should all refer to it as James.

[dryslot]

GFS MOS with an 8 for saturday here.

[SnowHole413]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

more SREF members looking better atleast  

Keep it coming man, I love the enthusiasm 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Well--that might make the name all the more appropriate. 

For the purposes of the board though, regardless of what they call this, we should all refer to it as James.

Look, I love the sentiment, but I'd just rather be a little bit more confident that a large chunk of the subforum won't look back on this storm...unfondly.

[skierinvermont]

NAM looks tasty at 6hr

[JC-CT]

Just now, skierinvermont said:

NAM looks tasty at 6hr

historic

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, skierinvermont said:

NAM looks tasty at 6hr

Check the ensembles before you celebrate the 6 hour output.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, skierinvermont said:

NAM looks tasty at 6hr

My guess is will be better then yesterday at 18z . My god that run was a joke 

[Spaizzo]

12 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

The storm isn't going to be that long of a duration. Meat of it is 9-12 hours. Going to be some high rates for sure, but without a bigger stall than implied don't get too crazy,

Frb8/9,2013 our little city received 36” which mainly came down within 8-12 hours…

[skierinvermont]

I mean what is the point of a model that has such massive 500mb shifts in its initialization from run to run

but the trough does look more amped

[Go Kart Mozart]

41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that's pretty bifurcated at 48 hours

Yes, two distinct camps.  Forget the mean, one of the two camps is correct.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

Yes, two distinct camps.  Forget the mean, one of the two camps is correct.

Unless neither is

[weatherwiz]

gotta watch that confluence here...

[OceanStWx]

 

27 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

As mentioned the spread in the 12z EPS has only grown larger from 06z and 00z. Not really what you like to see this close to an event.

What surprised me was how many members have really ugly solutions. For example, 30% of members have <6" of snow for Boston. That's not an insignificant amount and it has increased from 00z.

As others have mentioned it looks like two clusters in the EPS, which could be increasing spread despite there only being two "right" answers. To me it looks like the EPS got a little worse aloft in the mean, so I would expect probabilities and whatnot to come down slightly.

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX just hoisted watches here, Must of liked the euro.

Or the day shift was only 50% confident you might get 6 inches.