Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, PhineasC said:

GGEM has been jumpy too, going back and forth between the GFS and Euro looks each cycle.

IMO a lot of it is convective feedback problems.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM hammers se Mass just west of the canal, holy smokes 

[JB_Wchstr]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

If only this wasn't the NAM.

Better the NAM than nobody lol

[PhineasC]

Just now, NeonPeon said:

And you're immune to this how, exactly?

You're someone on the interior joyfully hoping that the cape rains so that you get your snow. Tale as old as time. Well, not really, since the advent of publicly consumable computer modeling, anyway.

Don't let the 84hr NAM spook you. I'm sure GFS is about to drop a turd in the western camp punchbowl and go further east.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

It sounds like all of your mental corrections bring the best snows right over your house. Helpful, for sure. LOL

I do NOT have a "Jack POT" fetish or an IMBY mentality. I have seen these models not just how they performed this year, but others, and this trend has continued. Believe what you must but I have lived and seen this many times before.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

QPF will absolutely NOT be underdone with this. I mean this inflow is ridiculous

Yea, this autopilot mode of defaulting to traditional biases needs to be checked IMO. These are pretty exceptional circumstances.

[NeonPeon]

Just now, SnowEMass said:

Better the NAM than nobody lol

This is how you get an STD.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Greg said:

I do NOT have a "Jack POT" fetish or an IMBY mentality. I have seen these models not just how they performed this year, but others, and this trend has continued. Believe what you must but I have lived and seen this many times before.

I'll bet you would have called BS on the QPF in December 14, 1992 and March 31. 1997, too.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Let's hope permanently.

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

RGEM is not gonna pull a NAM unfortunately. Looks similar to 6z

Meh, Reggie's been getting high on his own supply since '15.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, this autopilot mode of defaulting to traditional biases needs to be checked IMO. These are pretty exceptional circumstances.

Precisely. We all know models have a tendency to overdo QPF but like you said these are exceptional circumstances. I mean when you have 80+ knots of warm/moist inflow into such a cold airmass...it doesn't take rocket appliances to know what that will do or means. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

GGEM has been jumpy too, going back and forth between the GFS and Euro looks each cycle.

Both the GFS and EURO have been very steady for the past 24 to 48 hours in their own camps....The GFS has been on the EPS eastern cluster, while the EURO has been hanging out on the Western side of the EPS. So obviously there are still moves to be had being 72 hours out from start time.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Good points. I like a balanced discussion.

As I watch the 12z NAM roll to hr 42 and also look at that trend Gif I posted of the GFS—look at that pacific ridge axis-now as far west as Vancouver at that hr. Never say never, but this is NOT a long-wave spacing/setup for down east ME and Nova Scotia, to take the brunt. To my mind the betting risk is highly asymmetric in favor of west of current guidance.

That's a salient observation, no argument!  

Yeah I am a big fan of those 'total scaffold' orientations ( which can also be moving in time to offer some delicious headaches that way too...), for determining what I call 'correction vectoring'  

- all else being equal, if the vector is unaccounted for as remainder, ...future guidance tends to move in that direction.
 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Meh, Reggie's been getting high on his own supply since '15.

The WOR crowd probably has PTSD from Reggie absolutely nailing Jan 2015 right down to the Ginxy-ORH-495 band and then 8-14" of sand for western areas.

I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point....maybe inside 48.

[dryslot]

Well its name is I Con and has done that to many.

[klw]

Thread summarized:

[EastonSN+]

This is so fun. Every model run east and west like boxers trading punches.

[JB_Wchstr]

4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

This is how you get an STD.

Gotta use the NAM safely! 

[CT Rain]

RGEM is east but at least it's not a shut out lol

 

Not too far from the GFS

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Meh, Reggie's been getting high on his own supply since '15.

It has not been good and is somewhat better the last 36hrs in and i've seen times even 24hrs or less it catches on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

This is so fun. Every model run east and west like boxers trading punches.

Its like the last two minutes of the BUF/KC game.

[NeonPeon]

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Don't let the 84hr NAM spook you. I'm sure GFS is about to drop a turd in the western camp punchbowl and go further east.

I'm not spooked, there's a great storm brewing that seems increasingly likely to do well for all. Its sensible impacts here are almost certainly going to be less than everywhere else, due to climo. I've yet to see a nor'easter not favor other areas, and I've been here for more than a decade now.

As to the cape being nervous? They know the deal, as do I, for any storm, unless they are unhinged. Mixing is often a threat that requires tracking till the last minute. They aren't going to turn on being nervous or not at 3 days out. They are nervous till the flakes fall, if they are weenies at all.

[Greg]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet you would have called BS on the QPF in December 14, 1992 and March 31. 1997, too.

Probably not the QPF in 1992 nor 1997. But those were different storms.

[tiger_deF]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, you stole my line....I was gonna reply that hopefully it means the ICON super computer burnt out and can't be replaced.

The ICON supercomputer? I was expecting the ICON room-sized vacuum tube computer

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The WOR crowd probably has PTSD from Reggie absolutely nailing Jan 2015 right down to the Ginxy-ORH-495 band and then 8-14" of sand for western areas.

I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point....maybe inside 48.

Oh, Reg definitely was on a heater in '15. It nailed a couple of those systems, but it's generally puked on itself ever since.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Greg said:

Probably not the QPF in 1992 nor 1997. but those were different storms.

I don't know of anyone who accurately predicted the QPF in those two events at any type of lead.....except for you, I guess.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Let the hype begin.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tiger_deF said:

The ICON supercomputer? I was expecting the ICON room-sized vacuum tube computer

Well it's pretty high resolutioon....even if it sucks, lol.

The old NGM was the model that I could probably run on my high school graphing calculator.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its like the last two minutes of the BUF/KC game.

And just like that game this will come down to a coin flip!

[Zeus]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The WOR crowd probably has PTSD from Reggie absolutely nailing Jan 2015 right down to the Ginxy-ORH-495 band and then 8-14" of sand for western areas.

I wouldn't worry too much about it at this point....maybe inside 48.

The Reggie look at 500 around hr 52 has some noticeable contrasts to just about every other model as to the structure of the key southern piece that gets dragged through Texas. Can't be discounted in the absence of better consensus from the bigger players, but it also doesn't carry any extra weight as an outlier here.