Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Now get ready for the usual "mid-range lose the storm" phase.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just get naked and prance around BOX

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Now get ready for the usual "mid-range lose the storm" phase.

I don't think so.....probably tamer versions...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Now get ready for the usual "mid-range lose the storm" phase.

This is the mid range

[dryslot]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Now get ready for the usual "mid-range lose the storm" phase.

I don't think that will be the case with this one, Its been signaled pretty well the last 7 days or so albeit east

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The problem is we already pretty much hit the potential ceiling this far out so now comes the disappointment as we get closer in..........

you mean I shouldn't lock in a 20" solution 4.5 days out?

And then bitch endlessly every time a model shows a solution otherwise?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This cycle was run from George's basement. It doesn't get much better than that for his area.

Yeah, that's why I posted earlier about the Euro about to go boom.  You could just see it unfolding with the sharp trough with the s/w diving in on the backside.  That thing went apeshit in no time.  The ideal solution for eastern areas.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The problem is we already pretty much hit the potential ceiling this far out so now comes the disappointment as we get closer in..........

that's what people said about 2/8/13

[FXWX]

If the volatility / explosive deepening does indeed verify, which seems more likely than not, I would expect the slowing / stalling to actually occur a bit earlier than being model.  I would hedge the slowing and explosive deepening occurring a tad further south of where it is modeled.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Most everyone is happy with that, but potentially historic in AEMATT 

Not bad for WCT but yea, that’s historic for them yet again. Couple ticks w and we feb 13 it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so.....probably tamer versions...

Yeah it is going to be hard to just lose this storm....this is extremely good agreement for a D5 system right now. You have cross-guidance support on literally every piece of guidance and big ensemble support....this has been on the radar for days already too and it's a larger scale type system that is benefiting from a giant large scale ridge and associated large scale downstream trough. The only question is we're still figuring out where in a 200 mile wide zone this may track....but I'm not worried about losing this to Bermuda at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That run is a Juno redux. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

If the volatility / explosive deepening does indeed verify, which seems more likely than not, I would expect the slowing / stalling to actually occur a bit earlier than being model.  I would hedge the slowing and explosive deepening occurring a tad further south of where it is modeled.  

It actually usually verifies a bit later than modeled.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I am skeptical of the Euro burying the s/w in the SW.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

If the volatility / explosive deepening does indeed verify, which seems more likely than not, I would expect the slowing / stalling to actually occur a bit earlier than being model.  I would hedge the slowing and explosive deepening occurring a tad further south of where it is modeled.  

Violently agree

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

I dunno, some of the past upper echelon events have shown increased long lead run to run/cross model guidance. Maybe this one does as well.

[NorEastermass128]

Wow! 

[Go Kart Mozart]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Noise ...

But jesus - if this N/stream modulation were to be real AND the tucking SW boots more east...

 

I was thinking the same thing...if this is the old Euro bias and that SW energy comes around the horn more quickly....this becomes a dangerous animal.  Sandy with tons of snow.

[JC-CT]

I hope it's not rain by the time the NAM gets a hold of it

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It actually usually verifies a bit later than modeled.

idk...I feel like the lows that really go bonkers with the bombogenesis do it sooner than progged. That's all empirical from me though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Violently agree

Jan 2015 and to a lesser degree, Feb 2013 both captured a bit later and further east than modeled.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

idk...I feel like the lows that really go bonkers with the bombogenesis do it sooner than progged. That's all empirical form me though.

empirical? or anecdotal

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

idk...I feel like the lows that really go bonkers with the bombogenesis do it sooner than progged. That's all empirical form me though.

Congrats RIC?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

idk...I feel like the lows that really go bonkers with the bombogenesis do it sooner than progged. That's all empirical form me though.

I am talking last minute trends.

[Chrisrotary12]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The problem is we already pretty much hit the potential ceiling this far out so now comes the disappointment as we get closer in..........

Wait until we get into the NAMs range and we get one of its crazy 36-48" solutions.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2015 and to a lesser degree, Feb 2013 both captured a bit later and further east than modeled.

It did, I was looking at 3-6" until the last 24 hrs or so.

[dryslot]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Wait until we get into the NAMs range and we get one of its crazy 36-48" solutions.

Lolis to 72? You know the Nam will have at least one of these runs......lol

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

If the volatility / explosive deepening does indeed verify, which seems more likely than not, I would expect the slowing / stalling to actually occur a bit earlier than being model.  I would hedge the slowing and explosive deepening occurring a tad further south of where it is modeled.  

Agreed with this...especially in such a volatile setup...they do tend to do the explosive deepening a tad earlier and subsequently occlude earlier. In this scenario the deform band will essentially sit an rot 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jan 2015 and to a lesser degree, Feb 2013 both captured a bit later and further east than modeled.

Yeah I disrtinctly remember Feb '13 had a couple runs where it looked like we might get 40"+ over a large area because it stalled well into Saturday afternoon. But it ended up slipping a little northeast before it did that....2015 I feel like stalled "on time" but the system was a little bit east of some of the consensus...most glaring the Euro was too far west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

It did, I was looking at 3-6" until the last 24 hrs or so.

Maybe it trends sooner from here, then kicks back a bit late.