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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Really tempted to name it the LeakingGut Storm.   First, because it's my favorite member screenname, but more important, it could be a description of what we all will be doing after the tracking and fail.  

DO IT!  I wont shit the bed.

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25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nope.  I'd rather torture you and have you track what is a 50/50 fail potential.  

Nope. It’s a 49.9/0.1/49.9 It will be worse/same/better. And those numbers are indisputable lol.

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18 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Give us next Saturday and then you could cancel the rest of winter. WSW criteria for absolutely everyone here.

Let's do it.

I’ll never understand this mentality. I want all storms shown on gfs, plus one or two surprises events, plus all the storms after that for 6 weeks.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's a really tuff question... not sure. I recommend starting a thread asking if another thread should be started. 

Then step into the other thread, ask if another thread should be started...etc.!  Like those perpetual pictures that show someone painting themselves painting a scene, which shows themselves painting the same scene, which shows...!

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56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

On the 12z gfs, the setup is obvious by 174. Looked like a solid winter storm on the way for the east. Big precip field as expected. So far this year, I haven't been close to as interested as I am now. Gfs may or may not have the right shortwave to grow but it doesn't matter. Give us that upper level setup, let it spin and wobble for 10-14 days, and the odds of a region wide warning event with cold temps is as good as it gets without classic blocking. 

With you 100%. We were discussing this in the zoom 2 nights ago then the Gfs popped out exactly the type of result we envisioned.   People freaked out when the mini 2 day torch showed up because we couldn’t see past it at first to confirm it was just a temporary reshuffle and not a complete pattern breakdown. 
 

But I like this next iteration of the pac driven pattern better.  We’ve been stuck on the backside of the trough for weeks and that leaves us in the precarious spot of needing major amplifications to get a storm and without blocking those are thread the needle low odds propositions. The much better way to get snow in a progressive pattern are boundary waves but those won’t work when your in the suppressive NW flow on the backside of a trough. 
 

It looks like after the inevitable cutter and reshuffle the next cycle of the pattern puts the mean trough axis just to our west. Add in another arctic cold dump and we are in a good spot for boundary waves.  Cycle that look for 1-2 weeks and I’ll take my chances. Not an HECS look but on the other hand the last 10 years it seems like a cow farts and some weak wave spits out an inch of qpf. So these waves can be substantive.  
 

Very odd the pac continues to be very un Nina like other than the amplified NS. But the NS has been on roids for like 6 years now so not even sure how much we can attribute that to enso anymore. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With you 100%. We were discussing this in the zoom 2 nights ago then the Gfs popped out exactly the type of result we envisioned.   People freaked out when the mini 2 day torch showed up because we couldn’t see past it at first to confirm it was just a temporary reshuffle and not a complete pattern breakdown. 
 

But I like this next iteration of the pac driven pattern better.  We’ve been stuck on the backside of the trough for weeks and that leaves us in the precarious spot of needing major amplifications to get a storm and without blocking those are thread the needle low odds propositions. The much better way to get snow in a progressive pattern are boundary waves but those won’t work when your in the suppressive NW flow on the backside of a trough. 
 

It looks like after the inevitable cutter and reshuffle the next cycle of the pattern puts the mean trough axis just to our west. Add in another arctic cold dump and we are in a good spot for boundary waves.  Cycle that look for 1-2 weeks and I’ll take my chances. Not an HECS look but on the other hand the last 10 years it seems like a cow farts and some weak wave spits out an inch of qpf. So these waves can be substantive.  
 

Very odd the pac continues to be very un Nina like other than the amplified NS. But the NS has been on roids for like 6 years now so not even sure how much we can attribute that to enso anymore. 

Good stuff man. I'm at the point in this game where the type of potential storm determines my desire to get involved. I'm 100% done wasting time on low probability stuff. If that's all there is, I just don't have it in me anymore. ROI is awful. 

On the flip side, I have pent up desire to watch something from longer leads. So for now, I'll monitoring ens means in the 7-10 day range literally for the first time this year. 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Go on...

ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

Wrong storm. There will be a cutter next week. After that is the threat of a wave along the arctic boundary after it sinks south. Gefs can’t agree on which wave but there are a lot of hits day 9-16 between 3 different waves. Same general setup each time. 
 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wrong storm. There will be a cutter next week. After that is the threat of a wave along the arctic boundary after it sinks south. Gefs can’t agree on which wave but there are a lot of hits day 9-16 between 3 different waves. Same general setup each time. 
 

Euro doesn't have a shortwave like the gfs in Cali but how could it? Lol. Just give us the big bowl for 2 weeks. Shortwaves will b there for it. 

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