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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, mattie g said:

 

One day later than the GFS. Just means the atmosphere is primed.

The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM.  But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases.  Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up!:drunk:

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM.  But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases.  Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up!:drunk:

Juiced 

C97FD138-9369-494B-AEF4-657084E09498.png

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The northern stream wave that the GFS phases into the monster just scoots through the Lakes quickly on the GGEM.  But then this beastly closed 500mb low appears out of nowhere and partially phases.  Both look like very simple and clean solutions, so obviously a lot of model consistency coming up!:drunk:

There's some sort of energy (polar vort?) swinging around the back side of that northern stream wave. That energy looks about to interact with the vort over Georgia.

Timing and all that, but I cant help but think the atmosphere just wants to explode.

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1 minute ago, mattskiva said:

Way too far west at that latitude, as Ji said, congrats Cleveland

That would destroy the southern Appalachians though.  That's gotta end up like 50" in parts of WV

 

There's a legit block though. The main issue I could see is that there is an area of lower heights in the Great Lakes area that the storm could try to move towards. If that block folds back over the top/shifts just slightly west, I can't see it cutting.

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Wow at the GFS / GGEM. Of course, all we should be taking away from this is the overall potential for a bomb off the east coast in the 7-10 day timeframe, but DAAAAYUM, nonetheless. 30” in Augusta :lol:
 

Also appears we should not be writing off a potential for a quick 1-2” type clipper for Sunday PM or the Tuesday threat either at this juncture. Spacing looks better for Tuesday. A few more days with improvements at 500 and we are certainly in the game.  

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45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM and GFS both working slowly in the right direction for Tuesday next week with more spacing between the northern and southern waves.  Need that to continue so the northern stream can drag the cold air in enough.  GGEM today is very close to that and has a strong enough southern wave to flip us to 1-3" of snow after some rain by dragging in some colder air.  

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh90_trend-2.thumb.gif.d322391cb487f92906fc1bfa7e872d01.gif

Maybe a bit similar set up to the wave in early January 2014. I think it was the 2nd or 3rd. It wasn't really cold leading in but got very cold behind it and the timing was good. I know we got 3-6 north of the city but I'm pretty sure most everyone got at least a couple inches if not more.

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wow at the GFS / GGEM. Of course, all we should be taking away from this is the overall potential for a bomb off the east coast in the 7-10 day timeframe, but DAAAAYUM, nonetheless. 30” in Augusta :lol:
 

Also appears we should not be writing off a potential for a quick 1-2” type clipper for Sunday PM or the Tuesday threat either at this juncture. Spacing looks better for Tuesday. A few more days with improvements at 500 and we are certainly in the game.  

I’ll jump on the Sunday train with you … but Tuesday is the Titanic and I don’t want to swim lol

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GEFS has 1 or 2 members that remotely resemble the op. The majority that have a storm have it pretty far off the SE coast. There is something there during that period though.

Yes, I won’t post the mean or percentages or will have everyone taking my head off…ignorance is bliss.

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