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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Looks to me like a better than average chance of February snowfall, not an ideal pattern but very little torch potential after the brief warming around Thursday, even that could lead to a bit of snow in northern parts of MD and higher parts of WV. I see one scenario in particular around ten days from now that looks promising, with much colder air digging back into the interior west and central plains regions.

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

Must have been some days ago... haven't seen it in the past few days

The GEFS has consistently had something for the Feb 6-7 timeframe but confined to the SE then offshore. That's the period I thought had some potential based on the advertised h5 look a few days ago. Still a window to watch.

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7 hours ago, WinterFire said:

Fwiw, at DCA Feb 2016 was almost exactly average temp-wise with almost a week below freezing (2/10-2/15). Only other comparable cold outbreak since then was late Dec-early Jan 2017-2018. Granted it’s DCA with a different climate than where you are but I don’t know that Feb 2016 was really an all-out torch anywhere in the region?

I never said February was warm specifically. The winter as a whole was above average. December was a torch and January was saved by the cold period leading up to the big storm. It quickly warmed up again after that. Yes you are right, Feb was generally average temp wise here(one of the few places on earth). If you recall that was one of the warmest months ever recorded globally, and I would have to go back and look at h5 and 850t, but I would bet there was very little cold air available in our source region.

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55 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

6z GFS beginning to look interesting starting this weekend as the frontal boundary puts us on the right side of us. Looks to be busy starting next weekend also.

I thought you guys were exaggerating but I looked at it myself...it does look icy...it's a hmmm type look

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Heavy rain changing to ice...because that scenario always pans out. But it is King GFS so yeah. Seriously tho....it would be funny now that the Ukie and others lost it if the GFS somehow leads the way with this one. 

6z gfs is very similar to how those 1-2 euro runs looked over the weekend. 

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Heavy rain changing to ice...because that scenario always pans out. But it is King GFS so yeah. Seriously tho....it would be funny now that the Ukie and others lost it if the GFS somehow leads the way with this one. 

Yeah obviously not common but I’d just like to see the cold air push trend better this week and see if we can get some frozen. 

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