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January 16-17, 2022 MLK storm obs/now cast

George BM

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

That 16z HRRR had near warning level ice for some of us.  Interesting 

There’s going to be a period of heavy precip as it transitions from snow to sleet to rain, per hrr, wouldn’t surprise me to see places pick up an inch of sleet on top of their snow, of course will be hard to measure that since it will crater snowpack. 

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16 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

2" of wind blown cold powder in Lynchburg. Still moderate/heavy snow, but I don't know how much more time of all snow I have left. Surface temperature hasn't budged since onset -  17 degrees. 

Not as much snow in Cville but the temp situation has been the same. If anything temps inched DOWN as the precip came in. Now at 18F

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From the NWS discussion: 

I performed a cursory analysis of current conditions this
morning and I found that temps are running a few degrees cooler
than forecast with dewpoints in the single digits. Up stream
observations in NC and southern VA suggests that snow is
over performing. I have adjusted my snow ratios this morning to
account for the well below freezing layer ahead of the
precipitation which should allow for higher snow rates. Initial
onset of precipitation is on track this morning and snow should
fluffy to start before switching over to wet snow as the layer
starts to warm and transitions over to a wintry mix for most
areas along and east of I-81. I will continue to monitor current
conditions to see if I need to up snow totals. It wouldn`t
surprise me if we get higher snow totals further eastward than
expected due to extremely cool air mass ahead of this system.


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