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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, it's not too hard to figure out who is likely going to win the contest.  You!  but I'll be a close second.  We'll see.  @canderson is likely going to bust low.  He really should try to be more optimistic.  :snowing:

For all the snow weenies in here, I thought they’d be some higher numbers.    I could still see them reporting 4” or something

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42 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like some of the better enhanced stuff is even making it all the way up towards Williamsport. The whole Sus Valley from there down appears to be getting into the best rates of this event currently. Looking at LWX radar some of the really heavy stuff is traversing the Mason-Dixon and bottom tier of PA counties (Cashtown and Bubbler) and especially just below in northern MD. This should catch everyone else down below MDT towards York/Lancaster the next couple hours. 

I think it could be a legit threat Sunday morning simply because we’ll have pack down and the coldest temps of the season on the lead up to Sat Night/Sun Morning. If there’s some rad cooling Sat Night before clouds move in it could be well below freezing. It doesn’t look like a big QPF producer but it doesn’t have to be to make for some really icy roads in that kind of scenario. Def something to keep an eye on once we get through the current event.  The actual warm-up on the surface will probably be brief as well, with a frontal passage and reinforcement of cold by Sunday evening. After that it appears we have a stable pattern of western ridge/eastern trough and we’ll have to keep an eye on any shortwaves that eventually materialize. 

Do we get ice up here or not enough precipitation 

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Main stuff has mainly shut off here, measuring 2.5” total. A tad less than I thought we might get here... but a nice snowfall. Judging by PBZ radar, could have some upslope stuff flare up with the westerly flow behind the system toward daybreak.  

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Pixie dust was falling here for last hour, but rates picking up a bit.  Steady light snow now.  Spitballing 3-4" here.  Not sure where the heavy rates are??  NBD, I'm happy as a lark and if we can score another 1" before the snow gun shuts off...thats just fine, but I'm not convinced.  Congrats all.

 

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A final tally of 4.3" here.  Currently sitting at 25 degrees, will convert snow to liquid a bit later on.

Looking more and more like we should have a decent shot at a glaze to perhaps a tenth of an inch of ice on sunday morning, before reestablishing and locking in some cold for next week.  Nothing crazy on the horizon but winter has arrived and I'm here for it.

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Well, I learned something new today -- that you can find yourself on a NWS LSR just by tweeting your total to them ha.  My first ever LSR, big day!  It seems they just used generic coordinates for Mount Joy since they don't know my exact location.  Also, I know @Cashtown_Coop is a an observer for NWS but saw a report from Rouzerville last night and was wondering if that was @Bubbler86?

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 AM     SNOW             MOUNT JOY               40.11N 76.50W
01/07/2022  E4.3 INCH        LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC
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1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well, I learned something new today -- that you can find yourself on a NWS LSR just by tweeting your total to them ha.  My first ever LSR, big day!  It seems they just used generic coordinates for Mount Joy since they don't know my exact location.  Also, I know @Cashtown_Coop in a an observer for NWS but saw a report from Rouzerville last night and was wondering if that was @Bubbler86?

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
717 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 AM     SNOW             MOUNT JOY               40.11N 76.50W
01/07/2022  E4.3 INCH        LANCASTER          PA   PUBLIC

Alas, it was not me.  I would put my forecasting chops up on display but not snow measuring.  Too lazy with it.    Congrats on being published! 

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28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6.5" here but only 2-3" on the driveway.  I do not melt down but guessing I was doing 7 or 8-1 at the start and finished up with powder in the 13-1 or 15-1 range.  Ratios definitely kept totals down here as over half of the snow was in the 8-1 period (my estimate). 

6.5 was my total as well.  

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

6.5 was my total as well.  

I thought you would have busted into the 7's.  To get my 6.5 I had to measure on top up a few elevated surfaces that did not get much wind.   I am guessing I only got 2" or so after going to sleep.   Most of the damage was before 11. 

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