Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Ditto. Bones too old for 0. Cold enough for snow is my cup of tea. We both know thats way too far out to "worry" about, but takeaway is that cold looks to hold, so we just gotta find some qpf to throw into it. I would be surprised if nothing transpires (qpf wise) over the next two-three weeks despite the GFS depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think its mostly zr. looking at nooner it looks like we start out in the mid/upper teens Sunday AM and yeah warm layer above is plenty sufficient to support ZR and no pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I'm still sitting at 25 here. As for Sunday, I believe the Euro is the only model that has consistently been less than impressed on the icing potential for the LSV. We'll see what she brings this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, paweather said: Pretty consistent at 10am Sunday on the GFS: **** me, it's rain here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: **** me, it's rain here Hey I don't want to hear it pal! Your elevation benefits you more times than not, but in these situations it certainly pays to be east of the range and down in the valleys. Cheers mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 really blowing out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Will Sunday be more sleet than zr? I hope so. ZR is no bueno. I’m personally concerned about the potential for really icy roads Sunday Morning despite what might only be a couple tenths of precip. I look to 925mb often to make that determination on sleet v freezing rain and 925mb gets routed pretty quick on the models with precip arrival along with pretty warm 850 temps that are already established. That’s why you see a really defined line at the Allegheny Front on the 2m map. Probably the first half of Sat Night looks pretty clear and calm so surface temps are going to fall pretty rapidly east of the Alleghenies. This after the cold day today and like temps in the low to mid teens tonight and pack on the ground. I-80 corridor north in C-PA might hold enough depth in the cold to get some sleet while the folks near the M/D line in the LSV might moderate at the surface quicker and have a later onset of precip, but this has higher impact advisory ZR event written all over it for most of PA east of the Laurel’s IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I’m personally concerned about the potential for really icy roads Sunday Morning despite what might only be a couple tenths of precip. I look to 925mb often to make that determination on sleet v freezing rain and 925mb gets routed pretty quick on the models with precip arrival along with pretty warm 850 temps that are already established. That’s why you see a really defined line at the Allegheny Front on the 2m map. Probably the first half of Sat Night looks pretty clear and calm so surface temps are going to fall pretty rapidly east of the Alleghenies. This after the cold day today and like temps in the low to mid teens tonight and pack on the ground. I-80 corridor north in C-PA might hold enough depth in the cold to get some sleet while the folks near the M/D line in the LSV might moderate at the surface quicker and have a later onset of precip, but this has higher impact advisory ZR event written all over it for most of PA east of the Laurel’s IMO. Falls primarily as some kinda frozen for eastern 1/2 of state. Maybe a little drizzle at end for lower LSV. That could be a notable glaze if this look holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 23 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: **** me, it's rain here Yea, your days of significant ZR events are lessened with your move. Welcome to the team as I am in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: Where is this at in Tower City? No. I got pulled off that run and am delivering by Lehigh Valley Intl Airport. That's just south of Tamaqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1.5 storm total here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 MDT recorded 5.5” it seems. An inch or so more then me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Snowfall map compiled earlier this morning - virtually all of the "true" LSV (Adams, York, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster fell between 4-8". As shown, highest totals were found in York, Adams, and out into Rouzerland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Snowfall map compiled earlier this morning - virtually all of the "true" LSV (Adams, York, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster fell between 4-8". As shown, highest totals were found in York, Adams, and out into Rouzerland. I feel like this was another storm that, for the most part, was modeled pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I feel like this was another storm that, for the most part, was modeled pretty well. I sure think so! This is my pet peeve with snowfall accumulation forecasts - if we get .3" of rain instead of .5", only a weenie would know that. (and many of them who wouldn't, either) But .3" of QPF that falls as snow can look a lot different than .5". It's amounts, ratios, temps, time of day...there is so much. It all matters. But when a forecast HAS to be made, and it's for 2-5" and someone gets 6" or 7"...oh my, what a terrible forecast! Except it really wasn't. The models did well with the overall placement of the 2 heaviest axis of snow...one in the mountains to our SW, the other primarily to our NE. Parts of our area got into that first axis that might have been a bit of a surprise, but as far as trying to forecast amounts for that type of storm, the models and forecasters did their jobs. And well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Someone broke the GFS today run is way behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: Someone broke the GFS today run is way behind Jan 15.....Shortwave wandering through the south, a still to be determined the sharpness of trough over us...roll the dice/throw the darts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Jan 15.....Shortwave wandering through the south, a still to be determined the sharpness of trough over us...roll the dice/throw the darts. I saw that it rolled out to sea below us but that could definitely change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, paweather said: I saw that it rolled out to sea below us but that could definitely change And I am searching for the foot plus dealio. Last night was great but it was progressive and had the transfer issue. I want to see a Gorilla to our South West. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Day 8 on the Euro looks like an interesting timeframe That is our mid month shot I think. GGEM looks interesting two days later but the flow is a big progressive and the trough-N/S Shortwave behind it does not seem to yell phase. Maybe I am not looking at it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And I am searching for the foot plus dealio. Last night was great but it was progressive and had the transfer issue. I want to see a Gorilla to our South West. Here's one for you - hard to believe it's been 26 years already: (I measured 30.5" in Centerville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That is our mid month shot I think. GGEM looks interesting two days later but the flow is a big progressive and the trough-N/S Shortwave behind it does not seem to yell phase. Maybe I am not looking at it correctly. Bob Chill was talking about that shortwave setting the stage for something to potentially follow on its heels a few days later - he doesn't think that this is the one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Here's one for you - hard to believe it's been 26 years already: (I measured 30.5" in Centerville) the best birthday present of all time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Day 8 on the Euro looks like an interesting timeframe Energy ejecting from the sw . Cold around Agreed but missing us otherwise there is really nothing on the EC but COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: the best birthday present of all time Only storm in my lifetime that I know for certain dropped more than 40" in our immediate area. (eastern York county) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Here's one for you - hard to believe it's been 26 years already: (I measured 30.5" in Centerville) I lived in Philly for that but looks like my future home jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Agreed but missing us otherwise there is really nothing on the EC but COLDWe are looking for patterns, not individual storms this far out. And the pattern advertised looks very good. I would roll with it every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: We are looking for patterns, not individual storms this far out. And the pattern advertised looks very good. I would roll with it every single time. Yea. any individual storms that are modeled that far out are close to a guarantee that it will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 So I have a question. Where did all the clippers go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, canderson said: So I have a question. Where did all the clippers go? Back to the Artic, you are right not much in Clippers at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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