Wmsptwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Love ice lol let’s do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 CTP’s latest AFD shows some definite concern for Sunday. Some type of Winter Advisory product(s) appear imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, canderson said: Why does everyone in that show speak English? 1 star. Discovery Channel is Anglophone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, canderson said: Why does everyone in that show speak English? 1 star. Apparently parts of Maine had 3" of zr in 1998. https://www.theactivetimes.com/worst-ice-storm-us-history-1998 In Canada, 35 were killed cause this storm. Damnnnn. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/ice-storm-1998-1.4469977 I swear when I was in school I came across something in one of my meteorology textbooks that mentioned KAOO reported more days of ZR on average during a year than any other station in the country. I could never relocate it again, so I can’t really support that claim haha. I do know we see more than enough ice setups in this valley right off the Laurels. I know I’ve mentioned this in the past, but the 1950 Great Appalachian Storm which gave Pittsburgh I believe it’s largest ever snowfall was probably the worst ice storm in the history of this local area and was something of the caliber of that or at least the Paducah ice storm. Was trying to find the article but saw something about it for sale on Amazon. I might have to buy it haha. The pictures just on the preview are insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Years ago (25?) I went to my monthly North Jersey Weather Observers meeting. The topic for the speaker that evening was the unbelievable storm of November 1950. In addition to what's been mentioned already about Pennsylvania, during the height of the storm Newark, NJ airport reported sustained winds of hurricane force for 12 consecutive hours!! I know, it sounds nuts and totally unimaginable. Another stat from that storm is the severity of the cold that was on the west side of the storm and how deep the trough was to have fueled such a beast. Tallahassee (and other north Florida locations) reported sub-zero low temperatures of around -4F. I don't know what the central pressure was but I have to believe this storm was on par with the superstorm of March 1993, or was even more intense than that storm. The weather can be so incredibly amazing while also being horrifically devastating at the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z Nam FRZ map...some of this is dictated by lack of precip in the far S/E I’m in the bullseye I’m ready with my ice pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 The 12z GFS looks loaded with Winter Storm potential in week 2. The end of the 12z Canadian looks like an incoming Gulf storm on day 10 when the run ends. After a brief lull in the action after our Sunday ice, the pattern the next few weeks should keep us very busy in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z GFS looks loaded with Winter Storm potential in week 2. The end of the 12z Canadian looks like an incoming Gulf storm on day 10 when the run ends. After a brief lull in the action after our Sunday ice, the pattern the next few weeks should keep us very busy in here. The RAP will need some time down to get ready to impress again. The things some MA posters say about it, and the HRRR, make the models cry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1) Despite never getting above 27, snowpack is down nearly 1" since this morning 2) Joe Bastardi is a lightning rod, and understandably. I don't care about his "outside of weather" stuff, I go to people I trust for all of that stuff. As for the weather, my biggest beef is his sensationalism. Every storm is a 500 year storm, for crying out loud. However...I also believe that he knows more than most in here combined. There are a lot of respected mets locally and nationally that praise him. Horst is one of 'em - Eric considers him to be about the best in the business. (he's said as much in his tweets over the years) Bottom line - I can understand both sides of this little ditty. Agreed, putting the politics/personal opinions aside.. I do read and watch some of his posts on WB and have read his posts in the past when he was still with AccuWx. I kinda think there’s a certain way to “interpret” him if you will, or at least that’s how I approach reading his stuff. He’s very big on analogs and comparing past patterns to a potential upcoming one (often ones that produce a historical past event). And I think the more one realizes that you often can have similar patterns and potential materialize without having it come together for said comparable historical event… the more you can at least kind of see where he’s coming from with any given setup.. He’s also big on sticking to his ideas for as long as possible no matter how sideways the sensible weather pattern gets in comparison. Case in point: this past December. However, I saw a lot of other busted forecasts when it came to this past December and I was wrong in my initial thinking going into the month as well. At any rate, I think that’s a big reason he can come off as sensationalist. That and he has really pushed the 95-96 narrative much more than average this year haha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 CTP’s ice accretion map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 hours ago, canderson said: So I have a question. Where did all the clippers go? We haven’t had patterns conducive for them much the past couple winters. Two winters ago we had such a positive NAO/AO all winter that the northern branch track was way too far north for them to track where they need to for our area. Last winter we had NAO blocking galore and got the big hitters but still couldn’t score much of those events in between the December and February storms. The mean trough dumped west of us, resulting in that insane OK/TX cold wave later in February and us being on the front of the trough. And of course, this question offers an opportunity to market the potential for clippers going forward with this pattern haha… because it certainly looks like a clipper pattern to me. Broad ridge in the west and us on the back of the trough (NW flow). It also looks like standard colder phase NINA business with the progressive pattern. Gonna be hard for models to see an individual waves in the fast flow, even in the medium range.. so I wouldn’t be surprised if a lighter event suddenly starts showing up. This pattern is going to have some bigger storm potential but is going to really depend on timing for any phasing of shortwaves.. again standard Nina business. It hasn’t been talked about much on here but we’re running in moderate territory in NINO 3.4 (-1.0ºC), with 3 and 1+2 in high end moderate territory (-1.4ºC and -1.5ºC respectively) this past week, and it has been that way the last several. The latest three month average was -0.8ºC. The Nina is definitely having an influence this winter, so hopefully we can keep the MJO away from 4-6 as much as possible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Finally got around to getting my qpf measurement. 4.3” snow melted down to .33” liquid for a 13:1 ratio, about what we all expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 MDT event total snow was 5.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Suddenly after all of the doom & gloom of the warm December, MDT is now sitting at 6.6 inches of snow for the season. Normal snow for the season through today is 6.8 inches, so all of a sudden, MDT is only .2 behind for the season! All it takes sometimes is one storm to get a snow season back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 hours ago, TimB84 said: Isn’t there a thing with ZR where the accretion is almost always less than the QPF for some reason or another? I was just going to post that I don't think I've ever seen a model map of freezing rain accretion actually verify. It's always much less, at least in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I was just going to post that I don't think I've ever seen a model map of freezing rain accretion actually verify. It's always much less, at least in my backyard. Sometimes it verifies just on the branches. I have seen some real FRZ events though where everything was frozen. Shuts down interstates. Not thinking Sunday is one of those events as the temps are in the teens and low 20's during those episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 This is unacceptable... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 It’s damn cold out. Winter. Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Voyager said: This is unacceptable... First negative night for your rig? (I forget if you had one already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: First negative night for your rig? (I forget if you had one already). Yes, I had one before. That one recorded a -12 years ago. Don't think it'll be that cold next week, but with a forecast of +3, who knows. it could dip below zero here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Yes, I had one before. That one recorded a -12 years ago. Don't think it'll be that cold next week, but with a forecast of +3, who knows. it could dip below zero here. At least your water isn't sitting on that tNker for over 12 hrs freezing up the valve at the outlet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 This post tonight from @Bob Chill made me smile… “ I wasn't being super specific with the analogs as I'm more interested in the entire upcoming 2-3 weeks. Not just the upper air progs on d11. That analog list is loaded with good winter wx in the east in general. That upper air pattern looks beautiful and when setups like this come along, it usually last for a while. If things play out as it looks now, there's going to be multiple threats to track. Seems like it wants to snow here for some reason too. Weird.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 0z Nam's quicker w/ onset of Sunday skating event, and further south w/ ice signal. Latching onto the cold already in place or will tomorrow go back warm? Mind you....In situs like this, this is NOT used for snow forecasts....I use it merely to see where the frozen vs wet boundaries...thermal profiles similar to 18z, so dunno what this really means...just looking for trends.. Now back to your beers/bevies or whatever suits you on a cold winters night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Already down to 19 here. With mostly clear skies and a fresh snowpack all we need are these winds to die down and who knows how low we can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: At least your water isn't sitting on that tNker for over 12 hrs freezing up the valve at the outlet. If it's down near zero, all it takes is an hour for the valve to freeze up. Then we need to heat it with a torch just to open it. Even the outlet pipe cap will be frozen on. At 20 degrees or less, we need to either hit it with a mallet or dead blow hammer, or hit it with the torch as well. If the vent freezes up, and we don't know it, bye bye trailer as it will implode when unloading. Plain and simple, in the summer, water hauling is a great gig. In the winter it kind of sucks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: In the summer, water hauling is a great gig. In the winter it kind of sucks... What are you? The official spokesman for hoses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: What are you? The official spokesman for hoses? Oh don't get me started on hoses...lol. Let's just say the one in Hazleton is hard all winter long... Seriously though, that one is a real PITA, and is the one location I hate loading out of because the hose is stored outside, so it freezes, and it's like trying to bend a steel pipe when hooking it up to the trailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I get my water from sinks. I don’t need a damn tanker. People need to get with the program. Also I’ve had lots of gin. If that makes no sense blame Mr Hendricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: I get my water from sinks. I don’t need a damn tanker. People need to get with the program. Also I’ve had lots of gin. If that makes no sense blame Mr Hendricks. Water is big business. We pull anywhere from 75,000 to 100,000 gallons per day out of some of the springs (wells)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Water is big business. We pull anywhere from 75,000 to 100,000 gallons per day out of some of the springs (wells)... Huh. What happened to pipelines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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