pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 fwiw for sunday, gfs showing deeper cad signal. ICE ICE baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Good morning to all snow weenies out there! Judging by posts this was really a solid event. I just took my post-midnight measurement and got 2.0". That brings the storm total to 5.5". the 2.0" melted down to 0.15" which was 13:1 which was the same as my pre-midnight measurement. My melted storm total was 0.42" which also produced very close to 13:1. Like others have mentioned, there appears to be less on walkways and my cul-de-sac street. So just to recap: Snowfall since midnight = 2.0" with liquid of 0.15" Snowfall yesterday = 3.5" with liquid of 0.27" Snowfall storm total = 5.5" with liquid of 0.42" and a storm ratio of 13:1. It it currently 24.1 degrees and hasn't budged during the last hour. My overnight low was 23.0 degrees. Great storm! Now we move on to the ice storm on Sunday. I live in an area that is usually the last to break above freezing. The warmth comes in from the west or south or combination of the two. Talk to you later...have a restful day. I know I will since I'm retired...lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 This ones for you Bubbs....looks like we'll have the cold. Lets find some vorts n chat it up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Change of plans. No going through Pillow to Sunbury. Boss called me as I got to Tamaqua and told me to turn around and do Allentown loads instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You have the challenge to put Mount Joy on that same pedestal. LOL. I do not think Cashtown has any lights after all. By my count, the Borough of Mount Joy has nine stoplights. We are big time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: This ones for you Bubbs....looks like we'll have the cold. Lets find some vorts n chat it up... GFS has been fairly consistent the last 3 or 4 runs with its depiction of a brutally cold period in that timeframe and the ensembles are showing a notably strong signal for cold considering how far out it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, canderson said: Piles of weed inside on a table doesn’t count. Why you think I was bitching about Kolaches last night? Didn't have any and the grass kicked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yes That looks like a problem. I know the models underestimate how long it takes to get rid of the cold air, is this gonna be another one of them too? But will the warmer air eventually win out in the Susquehanna Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: That looks like a problem. I know the models underestimate how long it takes to get rid of the cold air, is this gonna be another one of them too? But will the warmer air eventually win out in the Susquehanna Valley? CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: By my count, the Borough of Mount Joy has nine stoplights. We are big time. On the morning of December 24th it took me 20 minutes to get from Angle Street to Chickies Creek near the Turkey Hill. Town gets gridlocked a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Very windy, but temp is climbing. Was 24 at 9am, now up to 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: That looks like a problem. I know the models underestimate how long it takes to get rid of the cold air, is this gonna be another one of them too? But will the warmer air eventually win out in the Susquehanna Valley? One thing I have noticed is that the amount of precip is not overly heavy so glazes yes but model wise, not sure I see a ton of heavy ice accretion. But I do suspect, for those East of the mountains in the LSV, its going to take a long time to scour out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I call this Roses In Snow(tm) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I never made it to bed. Stayed up for whole event then starting plowing. Managed to slip and jar me knee I had surgery on so now that’s bothering me. Funtime. Ice it and wear your brace. Your debut and your falling apart. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, pawatch said: Drink a lot of Jim Beam. Ice it and wear your brace. Your debut and your falling apart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 "Your debut" was what MillvilleWx had to perform for Kolaches the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 43 minutes ago, TimB84 said: GFS has been fairly consistent the last 3 or 4 runs with its depiction of a brutally cold period in that timeframe and the ensembles are showing a notably strong signal for cold considering how far out it is. Yep, consensus has been growing for sure. Now that we got last night outta da way....I'm ready for the next one (beyond Sundays ice-which is nice cause it serves as pack retention agent... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: On the morning of December 24th it took me 20 minutes to get from Angle Street to Chickies Creek near the Turkey Hill. Town gets gridlocked a lot. Oh wow that seems especially bad, can't say I've ever seen it quite like that. I do know that light at 772 and 230 can get hairy, as well as the "Y" where Marietta Pike feeds into 230 down by Twisted Bine. To be fair though, I don't get into town much anymore and rarely around rush hour. As you know I live in West Hempfield Township surrounded by farmland, and I think we may actually have less stoplights in the township than Mount Joy Borough. I wonder how many East Donegal Township has? Inquiring minds want to know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 36 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: That looks like a problem. I know the models underestimate how long it takes to get rid of the cold air, is this gonna be another one of them too? But will the warmer air eventually win out in the Susquehanna Valley? sorta yes n no. If you look at thermal progression, models have different depth of cold, so we need to look at winds to "scour" the valleys out. Verbatim IF cold holds (which if the gfs verifies (but is often a couple degrees too cold) we'd likely see the ice make it through as there is a brief window of warmth before the cold raced back in. If cold is shallow, ice accretion may be lost before said cold hardens up whatever we have otg. Here is my point we've lost 850's so one says....oh no big deal...what ice you talkin bout Willis?. This is "warmest" panel. Buutttttttt....Willis forgot to look at 2m temps at same timestamp. Verbatim thats deep enough surface temps to warrant concern. Sounding show how "deep the cold is...or isnt. As you can see the layer is very shallow (picked Lanco for soundings). Look at bottom of graph and chalk a line from the 0 straight up. We dont have much cold, but for this situ...its all about the surface and how long it takes to erradicate that little cold layer. Hope that helps a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Oh wow that seems especially bad, can't say I've ever seen it quite like that. I do know that light at 772 and 230 can get hairy, as well as the "Y" where Marietta Pike feeds into 230 down by Twisted Bine. To be fair though, I don't get into town much anymore and rarely around rush hour. As you know I live in West Hempfield Township surrounded by farmland, and I think we may actually have less stoplights in the township than Mount Joy Borough. I wonder how many East Donegal Township has? Inquiring minds want to know! I believe it's 4 - 3 on 441. (Ore Mine Road, Anderson Ferry, and PA 743) and then the light at the old high school that's now the junior high. The light on 441 and 23 is all you in West Hempfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Snow loading... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: sorta yes n no. If you look at thermal progression, models have different depth of cold, so we need to look at winds to "scour" the valleys out. Verbatim IF cold holds (which if the gfs verifies (but is often a couple degrees too cold) we'd likely see the ice make it through as there is a brief window of warmth before the cold raced back in. If cold is shallow, ice accretion may be lost before said cold hardens up whatever we have otg. Here is my point we've lost 850's so one says....oh no big deal...what ice you talkin bout Willis?. This is "warmest" panel. Buutttttttt....Willis forgot to look at 2m temps at same timestamp. Verbatim thats deep enough surface temps to warrant concern. Sounding show how "deep the cold is...or isnt. As you can see the layer is very shallow (picked Lanco for soundings). Look at bottom of graph and chalk a line from the 0 straight up. We dont have much cold, but for this situ...its all about the surface and how long it takes to erradicate that little cold layer. Hope that helps a bit. Thank you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: Snow loading... Where is this at in Tower City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Pretty consistent at 10am Sunday on the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: One thing I have noticed is that the amount of precip is not overly heavy so glazes yes but model wise, not sure I see a ton of heavy ice accretion. But I do suspect, for those East of the mountains in the LSV, its going to take a long time to scour out. and to further that disco....just looking at 2m loops on 3k...there's about a 8-10 hr "window" where we get above 32 w/ 35 max at my house....so I'd say that roads n stuff should eventually be fine, but some spots may sturggle...especially if that 35 becomes 33. Gonna depend on how much icing accrues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I believe it's 4 - 3 on 441. (Ore Mine Road, Anderson Ferry, and PA 743) and then the light at the old high school that's now the junior high. The light on 441 and 23 is all you in West Hempfield. I think you're right except I think you're missing the one where the new Donegal schools are located (Koser Rd and 772). As for the 441 and 23 intersection, that's a tough one, as it's right on the line of three municipalities. I actually think it may be Marietta Borough. I'm sure everyone in the forum is thrilled with our discussion here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Will Sunday be more sleet than zr? I hope so. ZR is no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 46 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yep, consensus has been growing for sure. Now that we got last night outta da way....I'm ready for the next one (beyond Sundays ice-which is nice cause it serves as pack retention agent... The brutal cold is not my cup on tea so hard for me to root for it....but definitely with you on the look out for the next snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, canderson said: Will Sunday be more sleet than zr? I hope so. ZR is no bueno. I think its mostly zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The brutal cold is not my cup on tea so hard for me to root for it....but definitely with you on the look out for the next snow. Ditto. Bones too old for 0. Cold enough for snow is my cup of tea. We both know thats way too far out to "worry" about, but takeaway is that cold looks to hold, so we just gotta find some qpf to throw into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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