ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Isn’t BUF much more likely than bermuda though? I know cherry picking defeats the purpose of the ens and at d4, any member is plausible to a certain degree/percentage. I don’t know if it’s more likely…it’s close enough for me not to be the arbiter of which one stays and which one goes. There’s definitely a western limit to this and BUF may be near that limit. There’s more room on the eastern side than on the western side…the skew won’t be a normal/Gaussian distribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm thinking my met in Connecticut is riding the GFS camp. His forecast right now for Monday is heavy snow turning into Heavy Rain with a couple of inches of snow... But he did say at the end that things could change as there are still 4/5 days until this storm. Not looking at the ensembles I guess As he shouldn't be in this type of storm apparently. No reason to not follow the GFS op. It has led the way WRT the other models up until this point. They all follow the GFS. Kind of been like that for a while now anyway. If the op makes a major move east then I guess we would be back in the heavy snow game but for now, it's lights out for this "threat". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You remember that ..lol... like me, you must be old Unfortunately we all do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 If nothing else it underscores the instability/ poor continuity ( perhaps "dubious continuity" as in, deceptive ) that really going on with this thing. Trend is by also "discontinuous" ... so it can also be indicative of 'changeability' in future runs as a flat consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Those are the GEFS I know. But we've known for a while that its snowfall algorithm is crap. I think it prints out snow if any level below 700mb is below freezing. Other vendors provide better, though still dubious, snowfall estimates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I know. But we're known for a while that its snowfall algorithm is crap. I think it prints out snow if any level below 700mb is below freezing. There all crap, Some just take a bigger dump then others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm thinking my met in Connecticut is riding the GFS camp. His forecast right now for Monday is heavy snow turning into Heavy Rain with a couple of inches of snow... But he did say at the end that things could change as there are still 4/5 days until this storm. Not looking at the ensembles I guess Sounds like Bob Cox on WTIC. He's ridden the GFS for years, although he does qualify the variables more these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Those off hour runs tend to be a lot wonkier. 18z GFS is usually more progressive so I'd like to see a continuation at 0z to see if there's any hope. Good to see the GEFS trend east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Who is your met and do you have him all to yourself? HA!!assuming it's Ryan, as that's what was forecast this far out and discussed three pages back, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there. DC is pretty far west relative to eastern MA. If the whole structure of this thing shifts east, it's still possible they get 2 feet and eastern SNE gets warm-sectored. That would be Very unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there. My god with the ridiculous hyperbole. There is not going to be a "monster blizzard" anywhere in NE. Give it rest already. You must be like 13 y/o or something 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, George001 said: I’m thinking based on a blend of the big 3, we see a low track over Long Island and then go inland a bit into se mass, like a March 2017 type track. In my area, that means heavy snow to mix to rain. It’s a bit disappointing that it’s not all snow, but it is what it is. This happens sometimes in la ninas, the risk is storms running too far inland leading to rainier solutions, but hey I’ll take that over not having a low at all or watching DC get 2 feet while we get nothing. I’m probably gonna get a sloppy foot, im a little bummed about it because of what could have been, but that’s better than nothing. The NNE guys though I think they will be very happy with this outcome, it would be a monster blizzard up there. I would not mind a hug track for my neck, a BM storm doesn't really hit me as good as SEMA and just NW, a 495 special, but a canal track I like for mby anyway, don't mind a bit of taint, I think it's going to be something similar though, at this range, has the s/w even come ashore yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Those off hour runs tend to be a lot wonkier. 18z GFS is usually more progressive so I'd like to see a continuation at 0z to see if there's any hope. Good to see the GEFS trend east though. Honestly, the 0z runs and their ensembles are what I’m looking to for some trend clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ha. The circus is more entertaining when the clowns are present though. This morning was classic. Weenies left and right drinking and sobbing and panicking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: I know. But we've known for a while that its snowfall algorithm is crap. I think it prints out snow if any level below 700mb is below freezing. Other vendors provide better, though still dubious, snowfall estimates. So the 18z GEFS showed 95% rain for Sandy Hook NJ? It was a couple degrees above zero at the surface but under 0 at 925 and plenty cold above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: My god with the ridiculous hyperbole. There is not going to be a "monster blizzard" anywhere in NE. Give it rest already. You must be like 13 y/o or something Well, in all fairness, there could still be a monster snowstorm somewhere in New England out of this system, it just might not meet blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 doh, we lost nogaps. i'm out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Actually taking the GFS verbatim for the concerns of snow going over to rain...in the GFS scenario we may actually dry slot before any transition to rain can happen lol. With H7 tracking that far west and as developed as it is there would certainly be a mean dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: puzzling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Who is your met and do you have him all to yourself? He's mine... Mine all mine!!! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: puzzling Less to the west it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm really stoked about the fact that we are all looking at different versions of the same model 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Less to the west it seems. it's just...completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Less to the west it seems. Same time stamp with different sfc placements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 are there two different GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm really stoked about the fact that we are all looking at different versions of the same model Maybe there is a secret gefs on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe there is a secret gefs on wxbell. No seriously, his says 0.25 degrees. Are there different resolutions running in tandem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe there is a secret gefs on wxbell. I stole that somewhere else but weather models still had more to the west then that wxbell map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now