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Jan 14-15th Hybrid Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Obviously long range HRRR not reliable but find it interesting it has the sfc low and snow shield significantly farther east than global models. Definitely something to keep an eye on. 

Probably typical long range HRRR being overamped type of deal.

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12 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow.  I wish it was correct, but it's garbage.  The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow.

Yeah I'm sure it is. They are definitely too east. But I also think globals may be underestimating eastward extent of snow band. We shall see

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39 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 21z RAP has rain in western Iowa where every other model has 8" of snow.  I wish it was correct, but it's garbage.  The HRRR and RAP will correct southwestward tomorrow.

Can't win them all as they say.  Yeah, RAP is a toss.  I would also like to point out that the 18z NAM 3k shuts out Cedar Rapids, which wouldn't be surprising lol.  Got lucky with the January 1 storm, can't be lucky twice in a row.

EDIT: Just checked the forecast snow totals on the 18z RGEM for eastern Iowa.  Has several inches of snow in Cedar Rapids (likely way overdone).  I would think that 2-3 inches is more realistic although it's still 36 hours out.

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Can't get over how far ne rap/hrrr are with low and wintry precip. Almost bring rain into my area. Definitely overdone but makes me wonder if hi res will catch on to a possible slightly more easterly shift and possibly north shift. System comes on shore late tonight. Should have full sampling tomorrow so hopefully will help with model data. 

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9 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Can't get over how far ne rap/hrrr are with low and wintry precip. Almost bring rain into my area. Definitely overdone but makes me wonder if hi res will catch on to a possible slightly more easterly shift and possibly north shift. System comes on shore late tonight. Should have full sampling tomorrow so hopefully will help with model data. 

I'm not even asking for much, just not a complete shutout. I never really considered this to be even a medium-dog

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Less than 30hrs out from the event now, and the models range from nothing to 4" here.  Precip shield will prob struggle against dry flow from the east/northeast, so I'm gonna guess that we receive nothing.  

Interestingly some models have shown a few lake effect snow showers making it this far southwest.  It's pretty rare, but it has happened before.  A few evening lake effect flurries may be the highlight of this 'event' here. 

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13 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Less than 30hrs out from the event now, and the models range from nothing to 4" here.  Precip shield will prob struggle against dry flow from the east/northeast, so I'm gonna guess that we receive nothing.  

Interestingly some models have shown a few lake effect snow showers making it this far southwest.  It's pretty rare, but it has happened before.  A few evening lake effect flurries may be the highlight of this 'event' here. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Cedar Rapids got nothing from this, to the dismay of hawkeye_wx, hlcater and myself. :lol: Very unlikely that would happen though, but I'm only expecting 2-3 inches here but the globals forecast more than that (except the Euro).

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And I will end up with an LES event from this set up. Very cold air running parallel at the surface and mid levels (ENE) with a bullseye on my area. Exact placement determines if it's 1" IMBY or 6". It should make its way down towards Duluth during the day, as winds turn more NE. They maybe undercasting the snow down that way, especially downtown area/Superior, but since it'll be afternoon by then, streamers usually peter out some as the day warms, so I guess we shall see what happens.

LES event 1-14-22.gif

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Now that the Euro has nudged back east this morning, I'm solidly within the 3-6" area on nearly all models.  It's still a sharp edge, though, so any west or east nudge matters.

Must be nice. Lol. You're going to score solid on both winter storms so far this year. I'm forever riding on the edge here. 

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