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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It was not a good run even for western folks due to later arrival and less precip. 

Yeah, that was pretty horrific overall, even for mountain valleys.  Only the high elevations looked good from the 3K NAM.  The onset of precipitation was much later than with the other models, too.  Ugh.

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From GSP Afternoon Discussion 

As of 300 PM Friday...Winter Storm Watches will be upgraded to
Warnings with this afternoon forecast package, as confidence
continues to increase in a significant winter event this weekend.

A strong low pressure system will track from the Lower MS Valley
thru the Deep South Saturday night, then across the Carolinas
Sunday, lifting NE of the area Sunday night. Models are in good
agreement on the track and overall evolution of the cyclone. Strong
forcing and ample moisture will provide a period of solid precip
band crossing the area late Saturday night thru at mid-aftn Sunday,
then a dry slot will punch in from the south and a deformation zone
will pivot over the area Sunday evening. There will be nice supply
of cold air, as a 1030-1035 mb sfc high will move across the Great
Lakes to New England, causing strong hybrid cold air damming. So
the forecast is on track for the mountains to get mostly snow with
this entire event. Where it remains murky (as usual) is across
most of the Piedmont, especially along I-85 and to the south. The
12z models have trended stronger with a warm nose punching in with
the warm conveyor belt, transitioning snow to sleet and freezing
rain. In fact, it starts out warm enough that our southern zones
from Elbert to Chester counties go straight from rain to freezing
rain. The latest trends result an uptick in ice accums across
the entire Piedmont, and less snow/sleet. Either way, confidence
is high enough on snow, sleet and/or ice impacts to upgrade the
entire watch to a warning.

Damaging accumulations of ice continue to appear more likely along
and south of a line from Anderson to Spartanburg to Gastonia, to
Salisbury, including Charlotte and vicinity. Northwest of there,
morning snow/sleet followed by a likely transition to freezing
rain/drizzle of a few hours is expected to result in a somewhat
narrow zone of a mixed bag of accums of 2 to 5 inches. Gusty NE
winds within the CAD will add to the threat of power outages as
ice accums on sides of wires, branches and poles.

The forecast for the mountains and NC foothills continues to look
on track, where 8-12 inches/locally higher amounts of mostly snow
continue to look like the best bet. Strong cold advection combined
with snow pack in some locations will result in min temps Sun night
10-15 degrees below normal...or well below freezing in most areas,
so little improvement in road conditions can be expected through
Monday morning. A brief, moist northwest flow in the wake of the
departing cyclone could result in additional light accums across
mainly the high elevations of the TN border counties Sun night.

Continues should improve some on Monday, as skies clear out
(except for along the TN border within continued NWLY upslope
flow). Temps should get above freezing everywhere below roughly
3500 ft, thawing out some of the roads. But highs will be about
10 to 15 deg below normal limiting the melting.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-150500-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.IS.W.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/
Elbert-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Including the cities of Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton,
Ruckersville, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Laurens, Clinton, Union,
Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, Great Falls, Ware Shoals,
and Ninety Six
347 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
  one tenth to four tenths of an inch, with minor snow and sleet
  accumulations also possible.

* WHERE...The lower Piedmont of upstate South Carolina and
  northeast Georgia from Elbert County to Chester County.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to midnight EST Sunday
  night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be nearly impossible. At least scattered
  power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice and
  gusty winds.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light rain, possibly mixing in with snow
  and sleet, will begin Saturday evening and will gradually change
  over to freezing rain early Sunday morning. The precipitation
  should taper off Sunday afternoon and evening, perhaps as a
  period of light snow. Temperatures may stay below freezing until
  late Monday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

An Ice Storm Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions
are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of ice
accumulations will make travel dangerous or impossible. Travel is
strongly discouraged. Commerce will likely be severely impacted.
If you must travel, keep a flashlight, food, and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. Ice accumulations and winds will
likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches that
add to the danger. Prepare for possible power outages.

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.
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This is some temp and qpf data i've been taking for Clemson, SC. Interested to see if the GFS busts too high on temps. It's in chronological order with the top data being the oldest.

Go ahead and crown me king of the weenies for doing this. I don't care. lol

  7:00 PM 1:00 AM total liquid 1am 7:00 AM total liquid 7am snowfall notes about snowfall  
18z gfs 41/32 37/36 .21 liquid 34/32 1.21 2 kuchera    
18z Nam 3k 37/32 32/29 .05 liquid N/A N/A N/A    
18z Nam 38/29 32/28 .02 liquid 27/23 0.57      
18z RGEM 42/25 37/28 .01 liquid 29/27 0.65 5 kuchera    
12z Euro 41/31 35/30 .02 liquid 27/23 0.54 8    
12z Ukmet 40/33 38/33 .00 liquid 33/33 0.11 7    
00z Nam 37/29 33/30 .02 liquid 28/23 0.5      
00z Nam 3k 38/30 35/26 .00 liquid 27/23 0.3 0 kuchera through 7am  
00z gfs 41/32 37/36 .08 liquid 33/32 1.04 3 kuchera    
00z RGEM 42/23 38/25 .01 liquid 30/27 0.68 6 kuchera    
00z EURO 39/32 35/31 .04 liquid 28/26 0.76 8    
00z Ukmet 40/33 37/34 .00 liquid 35/34 0.06 7    
06z RGEM 43/24 37/28 .01 liquid 30/28 0.54 4 kuchera    
06z Nam 3k 39/31 36/26 .00 liquid 28/24 0.28 1 kuchera through 7am  
06z Nam                
06z gfs 41/33 38/37 .20 liquid 36/33 1.17 3 kuchera    
12z NAM 39/30 33/32 .12 liquid 30/27 0.52 1 kuchera backside snow  
12z Nam 3k 40/31 37/26 .00 liquid 28/25 0.26 4 kuchera through 7am 5 through 7pm
12z Hrrr 39/34 36/33 .00 liquid 31/29 0.13 1 kuchera through 7am  
12z gfs 41/32 38/36 .11 liquid 33/32 0.97 4 kuchera    
12z ukmet 40/36 39/36 .00 liquid 33/33 0.52 6    
12z euro 39/33 35/33 .07 liquid 30/27 1.03 10    
18z NAM 37/33 35/32 .00 liquid 28/25 0.43 2 kuchera 1 front 1 back  
18z Nam 3k 37/32 36/30 .01 liquid 28/25 0.43 3 kuchera through 7am 4 through 7pm
18z Hrrr 39/31 36/29 .00 liquid 28/28 0.23 2 kuchera through 7am 5 through 1pm
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On 1/26/2021 at 1:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Lights out indeed. And I believe with that CAD signal the freezing rain would be further south and east than indicated by the models. This has the look of a classic Carolina ice storm. Been a long time since we’ve had a Miller B plus established cold air in place 

 

11 minutes ago, wake4est said:

New from RAH 

DDAF8DD3-FCA8-499E-AD03-D0D5158413C5.jpeg

3A1213C1-2BD9-4F2E-AF33-4A44BDBF3CBF.jpeg

So, RAH is basically saying most of what falls will be unfrozen and will fall when temps are over 32F pretty much from Greensboro east. 1 - 3" pf snow and .10" of ice?  Nothing to see here.

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Huntsville NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch but just for DeKalb & Jackson Cos., not even a Winter Weather Adv for any other AL counties. But all their TN counties have a watch. They havent updated their graphics since 7:30 AM which was before adding DeKalb & Jackson to the watch.

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6 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

 

So, RAH is basically saying most of what falls will be unfrozen and will fall when temps are over 32F pretty much from Greensboro east.

A lot of that qpf falls as sleet, so Greensboro might be 2" (.2 qpf) of snow followed by 2"  sleet (.6 qpf) followed by .16 zr (.3 qpf-accounting for run-off). But snow/sleet depth after compaction would only be around 3"

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It doesn't meet Warning criteria anywhere right of Winston.  Just saw your post Olaf...  That's what I was wondering.  Now, THAT makes sense.  The totals they are showing doesn't = qpf being advertised.  Your explanation clarifies.  Thank you!

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Just now, ILMRoss said:

Setting the table with what dews look like on 00z Sunday.....

18z HRRR:

image.png.61a71056eb7baa0a95041b78792db67e.png

12Z NAM 3km:

image.png.c8ff0404248d435ddeee4e1cd144e7c1.png

WRF-ARW (??)

image.png.47ef0e159513b6155b6c92665561b9e5.png

WRF-ARW2:

image.png.6e15c1be7e57ec31de4e5ed66afd7e36.png

Regular NAM:

image.png.27371e29b1facebcf083813d5b813f9a.png

GFS:

image.png.7624a3f136a5a541de41b50119c0aa2f.png

Going to ask my group chats why the ARWs (research models) have such low dews

Thinking to myself no big deal between HRRR/NAM/GFS dews. Shows 5, 20 and 28. Only a 23 point spread on things up this way :blink:

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This needs to be said: be very, very weary of the thermal profile depicted by the NAM. That model absolutely excels in CAD scenarios such as this. I’d be extremely concerned even in mountain areas if subsequent runs show that warm nose cutting snow off 1/2 way through the storm as this run did, that run was awful for everyone and sadly I give it heightened credence given that models excellent track record nailing warm noses in CAD events. Watch that trend 

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