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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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I have always said that sleet and freezing rain is such a waste of wintry weather....... Unfortunately that warm nose looks to be very very strong. Current forecast for all attached as well.

Unfortunately I had a very very busy day today and was away from my computer. The really unique aspect for me is how strong the storm is getting without being off the coast. The storm goes from 1001 mb on the Gulf to 996 mb in southern GA to 995 mb in NC to 987 mb in VA without really ever moving over the Gulf Stream. Anyways, the wind is going to be something that  will cause issues where the freezing rain area sets up. I think there will be numerous power outages in the freezing rain zone.

Kind of just a messy messy storm if you will. Anyways, enjoy and I will be glad to answer any questions to the best of my ability.

Video attached as well: 

 

 

1142022_FreezingRainAccum.png

1142022_SnowSleetMap.png

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8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Could someone explain the dynamics that is making this system go from southern Georgia sharply north to DC?

High pressure weakens a bit and slides east while the main low deepens from 1000 MB to around 990 MB in 12 hours. Of course it’s going to go hard poleward during that time, and it’s steered by the high as well

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The 0z NAM is a disaster of an ice storm... this is beginning to almost completely do away with the snow and just be an ice storm.... @Buddy1987, the NAM wouldn't even be good for yall man.

Yea Disc sounded the alarm late last night. That damn ULL is just screwing up everything from cooking the mid levels to punching a dry slot perilously close to WNC and western VA. I think at this point just based strictly off the nam we’d be lucky to get 3-6/4-8 before sleet ravages us. The ice storm threat is becoming a real concern for you down that way. 

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Greenville, Spartanburg and especially Asheville are getting smoked here and Charlotte is going to have one hell of a gradient. Still think snow totals are going to come in a bit higher than the models suggest with that cold air aloft, it won’t be all concrete 

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15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Could someone explain the dynamics that is making this system go from southern Georgia sharply north to DC?

The SL strengthens quickly because the ULL is so strong and closed off. The ULL begins to interact with a shortwave shown on the 500 mb map and its pulls the ULL northward quickly. The ridge off the coast allows the ULL to escape, and we get an inland track. Definitely not a normal track.

Screenshot_20220114-212653_Chrome~2.jpg

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16 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Greenville, Spartanburg and especially Asheville are getting smoked here and Charlotte is going to have one hell of a gradient. Still think snow totals are going to come in a bit higher than the models suggest with that cold air aloft, it won’t be all concrete 

Cen AL had a strong gradient Feb 21. Near the AL/MS state line got significant icing while Bham hovered 33-34 the whole time. As the system pulled out we saw some snow though. Admittedly the frigid air wasnt far west of us either. 

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4 hours ago, oconeexman said:

Gsp on que drops totals here after warning. Screenshot_20220114-170136_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f8dc11580b7798881a5ae54173667c8d.jpg

That's exactly where you want it, lol. Clemson's best snows are always underforecasted. I've seen several 6-8" forecasts for that area end up as 1" or less. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Worlds difference on ICON as it transfers to the coast long before it even remotely resembles the nams evolution. I’m assuming GFS will hold serve but man the 0z runs have kicked off with some nuttiness. 

Of course the models trend further and further away from each other as we get closer to event time. Talk about a mess for GSP to forecast especially along the I-85 corridor. 

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The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny.

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3 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny.

It does seem that way.  Was that the one where he had to jump in the fountain because he lost the bet?

 

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6 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny.

Remind me, weren't we supposed to get just an inch or 2 or 3 the night before that 2000 storm that dumped 1 ft plus?

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15 minutes ago, Snowacane said:

The best storms in the Triangle over the past 20+ years have been the ones that were not forecasted. I'll never forget Fish in the early 2000's saying that we were looking down the barrel of a gun and we were supposed to have over a foot. Next day was clear and sunny.

I remember those since I was at NCSU at the time  from 02 to 05 :mellow:

I had to travel home to catch Feb 04 ...

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16 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Of course the models trend further and further away from each other as we get closer to event time. Talk about a mess for GSP to forecast especially along the I-85 corridor. 

Yea it’s nuts leading up to game time here. The Nam can be the Nam for sure at times but this def gives me some cause for concern if you are rooting for wintry type weather, regardless of what you want. Need that low to transfer and lock whatever cad is still in 

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11 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

Remind me, weren't we supposed to get just an inch or 2 or 3 the night before that 2000 storm that dumped 1 ft plus?

Yes, and I'll never forget looking at radar and thinking it looked like a hurricane with snow.  We have had a number of those that were not forecasted and that had a great deal of energy.

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