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Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


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2 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

I have only seen sleet accumulate more than a coating once, that was in mid-90s in northern Virginia. Surface air temps were in low 20's entire time, got about 4" sleet.  I don't think we'll quite that much here but could come close.

Surprising. Feel like we got a ton of sleet storms in Raleigh growing up. I remember one in particular in February of 2006, I believe, that was 2.5-3 inches of solid concrete in N. Raleigh.

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22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Disc @Buddy1987 , I believe yall will get 10"+.... how much do you both think I will get in Dry Fork?

I’m thinking like a 4-8” type ordeal that way. I think If some of the earlier timed models can push in that wall of WAA before the ULL starts to cook up the mid levels that would potentially be a way to over perform for you. My intuition tells me to err on the lower side for non disappointment reasons. My bar is set for 6” so I can say if we get that I will be elated. I’m really starting to look hard at this ULL traversing right under me or almost directly overhead. That could release some small meteors as the column cools even more 

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2 hours ago, jrips27 said:

12-18 for Nashville? That sounds really high. Where are you getting that from? 
 

I think 4-8 inches seems much more reasonable and it’s a bit higher than what is currently progged there by the NWS. 

I'm curious of why the forecasts are so much lower than what models are showing. Predicting more sleet/low rates?

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4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I'm curious of why the forecasts are so much lower than what models are showing. Predicting more sleet/low rates?

In my experience there's like 2 ways to overperform on modeled snowfall and 87 ways to underperform on modeled snowfall. 

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13 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

 

In my experience there's like 2 ways to overperform on modeled snowfall and 87 ways to underperform on modeled snowfall. 

Just seems so hard for this to not pan out for the folks in West and Middle TN. Low is on a perfect track from Birmingham to Myrtle Beach before running up the coast to just slam the Tennessee Valley and Apps

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8 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Awesome.  You have maps you could share?

This is 10:1 so probably a little overdone. But even accounting for some loss to pingers at the end and a little melting at the start it should be a solid 6-8 hammer. 

DFEB79F3-2295-4388-94F6-0C6A9A36E9D3.png

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A word of caution on the pretty Euro maps; these lose accuracy close to the event and this will not be a 10-1 ratio for those outside the mountains. Hopefully we'll get a good front end thump though; I just hate we won't be able to ward of the warm nose. I'm interested to see how the HRRR does.

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15 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro is just an absolute crush job for north east Georgia and the northwestern upstate,sc. 

for newbies in the state....sometimes this is broadly defined. You may be referring to Oconee and Pickens Counties. I think you are referring to the mountains. But most break the "upstate" using I-85.  The upstate lower counties are McCormick, Greenwood, Laurens, Union. I'd love the entire upstate get clobbered. But I'm still thinking the sweet spot in SC will be along and above Hwy 11, but north of 85 should be very happy.

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10 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

A word of caution on the pretty Euro maps; these lose accuracy close to the event and this will not be a 10-1 ratio for those outside the mountains. Hopefully we'll get a good front end thump though; I just hate we won't be able to ward of the warm nose. I'm interested to see how the HRRR does.

It is what it is. Both January 2011 and February 2014 had a warmnose/sleet line push through as well. Both immediately after the frontogenical band moved through. Both were great snow events anyways. )except Feb 2014 for Pickens bc we got screw holed on the fronto band). 
 

my point being if we hold on to snow until the dry slot gets close and rates decrease… who cares! We got our dumping! Especially considering it’ll be mid 20s afterward so it’s not getting washed away or anything 

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9 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

for newbies in the state....sometimes this is broadly defined. You may be referring to Oconee and Pickens Counties. I think you are referring to the mountains. But most break the "upstate" using I-85.  The upstate lower counties are McCormick, Greenwood, Laurens, Union. I'd love the entire upstate get clobbered. But I'm still thinking the sweet spot in SC will be along and above Hwy 11, but north of 85 should be very happy.

I think north of 85 in SC is looking good for 4-8 inches of snow. My confidence level for that is pretty good all things considered. 
 

8-12 possible north of hwy 11 and 10-12+ in the sc mountains above 1500ft. 

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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

It is what it is. Both January 2011 and February 2014 had a warmnose/sleet line push through as well. Both immediately after the frontogenical band moved through. Both were great snow events anyways. )except Feb 2014 for Pickens bc we got screw holed on the fronto band). 
 

my point being if we hold on to snow until the dry slot gets close and rates decrease… who cares! We got our dumping! Especially considering it’ll be mid 20s afterward so it’s not getting washed away or anything 

If you get that scenario, it won't wash anything away as a matter fact, it will seal it in for you.

Good luck my friend. I am pulling for you.

 

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It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off.

Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick?

To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. 

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21 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Wow!  Def a western Carolina's / N GA storm!  Where are all these posters???

Over in the corner hiding from all the CNC and ENC posters.

In reality though, that is definitely overdone on the snow end. 

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1 minute ago, msuwx said:

It’s weird to me how this board can be lit up like a Christmas tree analyzing the Day 8 NAVGEM, but now that a major storm is about to hit many, many people in the region, the post frequency tails off.

Is it because the storm isn’t producing pure snow for many? Eastern NC getting the short end of the stick?

To me, this is pretty easily the most significant winter storm, per capita, in a few years. 

I think that nailed it..

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