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East coast storm targets our subforum Noon Sunday-3PM Monday 1/16-17/22 with significant impact potential for heavy snow/heavy rain, a period of gusts 45-60 MPH along the coast with possible coastal flooding Monday morning high tide.


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1 minute ago, Torch said:

The high pressure over us this weekend is not heading out. It will hang over New England long enough to keep us snow.

Could be sleet too if it stays long enough but the storm still cuts/hugs

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3 minutes ago, North and West said:

Anyone else (who’s old enough) getting March 1993 vibes?

Not saying that it’s anywhere near that magnitude, but the inland track and major storm signal.

I am and this is brings to mind the fact that most of the "greats" were well-modeled several days out.  Not saying we're doomed on this one as shoving this thing east just enough to give us a big snow is well with the envelope of a well-modeled storm 5 days out.
 

 

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1 hour ago, romba said:

 

Difference in maps is the resolution? Algorithm? Does the bottom one show sleet as snow? Bottom seems to have been smoothed out and shows Central Jersey for example as 10-12 and top one shows it as 4-6. Pretty big difference in map totals....

The top map with the higher amounts to the north was from the College of Dupage website.  On their website they state that the data presented is downloaded directly from the NCEI servers.   It uses a 10:1 ratio to calculate snow amounts.  We all know that these clown maps have their limitations and that actual ratios that occur will vary from place to place.  WRT to SV I will leave that up to you to determine the validity of the data presented.

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1 hour ago, Torch said:

The high pressure over us this weekend is not heading out. It will hang over New England long enough to keep us snow.

The strength and placement of high will be so key in terms of front end snow. Almost any storm with successful front end snow for the I95 area starts with a really strong well positioned high. 

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My only comment on all that is posted. Think ensembles mxd precip & sleet is counted as snow 10 to 1 ratio. Therefore be cautious where mixed precip can occur and think se EDGE might be way too high??? Gradients are always a problem.

All modeling has se 850 inflow till  late Monday morning= Cold Air Damming for the interior. 

In the meantime, I will probably wait til 6 hours before the period of snow (and possibly rain) that I think is going to occur LI/CT/MA, especially east sections of all, with small accumulation possible Friday. Not enough members covered for a thread except possibly OBS-NOWCAST.  

Will reevaluate all by 720AM Thursday.

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