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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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44 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO

3DD90A85-4495-46A0-9930-930AD35845F5.png

Dayum, WV!  What’s a brother got to do to make that purple and pink head east about 50 miles? (self-weenie and lol)

Looks like a blend of the models says 2-4” for most of us, with 5-7” lollies.  After the recent 10” here in Churchville NW of Staunton and it being snow on snow, I obviously take whatever I can get- especially considering everything that falls will stay, despite what a jacked up snowfall depth map Chuck might show us says. Highs here are below freezing Friday (28°), with a low of 8° Friday night.

It has been fun reading all of you for years, for real.  I wish I could participate more, but I only recently know a little and I am usually teaching 8th graders or brewing beer at a nanobrewery as my side gig.

Happy new year, fellow snow freaks/ weenies!

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5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

That is a map of wind speed.  Deformation aloft indicates rising motion.  That's what we want.

I honestly don’t know what to “root” for up here. If the deform doesn’t crank in time I get a pretty decent event from the mid level SW associated band. If the deform develops in time I “could” do even better but I’ve seen this enough to know if that gets going but stays SE of me I end up in the screw zone between bands from the subsidence on the NW periphery of the deform. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I honestly don’t know what to “root” for up here. If the deform doesn’t crank in time I get a pretty decent event from the mid level SW associated band. If the deform develops in time I “could” do even better but I’ve seen this enough to know if that gets going but stays SE of me I end up in the screw zone between bands from the subsidence on the NW periphery of the deform. 

Go big or go home!

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Nah. We are good. I am saying 4-6 for us. 2-4 north and east of us. I am looki9ng forward to playing around in the SPC Meso Analysis site tomorrow. Should be able to see the Def bands set up. Hopefully right over us. :)

I think you do well. You’re far enough NW that you should cash in on the initial band before the coastal interferes much. So I think 2-4 is a safe bet. Maybe 3-5 with good ratios. 

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3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Snowshoe has 8" on the season and Canaan is closed right now...They need this...

My season to date total is higher in Alexandria than McHenry, which is insane.  Wisp re-opened today after closing on New Years Day - super limited runs but planning more openings tomorrow and into this weekend.  Upcoming pattern looks great for the mountains in MD/WV, especially as we get into mid month.  Prime snow making conditions and could easily see clippers with great ratios enhanced by the orographic lift.

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You're under an WWA right now, Northern Virginia, but trust me, its gonna get upgraded to a warning. Its only a matter of time.

You guys are on a heater. There's just no doubt about it. No sleep at all, none, all you are gonna do is chase exciting model runs and drink gallons of coffee then watch the snowstorm unfold right in front of you! You're gonna pile up snow on snow!

This is going to be a fun winter!

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11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

My season to date total is higher in Alexandria than McHenry, which is insane.  Wisp re-opened today after closing on New Years Day - super limited runs but planning more openings tomorrow and into this weekend.  Upcoming pattern looks great for the mountains in MD/WV, especially as we get into mid month.  Prime snow making conditions and could easily see clippers with great ratios enhanced by the orographic lift.

Yeah, the Allegheny front is about to cash. A cold nw flow is gravy for that area. It can snow out a partly cloudy sky over there.

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2 minutes ago, Jebman said:

You're under an WWA right now, Northern Virginia, but trust me, its gonna get upgraded to a warning. Its only a matter of time.

You guys are on a heater. There's just no doubt about it. No sleep at all, none, all you are gonna do is chase exciting model runs and drink gallons of coffee then watch the snowstorm unfold right in front of you! You're gonna pile up snow on snow!

This is going to be a fun winter!

You missed a good one.  How often does Dale City be close to the jackpot?  It was nearly the bullseye.  You would have been quite pleased.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

You missed a good one.  How often does Dale City be close to the jackpot?  It was nearly the bullseye.  You would have been quite pleased.  

I AM quite pleased! Everything is right in the world, now that I know Dale City got demolished by a foot of snow! The best part is, YOU ARE GONNA GET EVEN MORE!

I hope you all get totally DEMOLISHED, totally annihilated!

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6 minutes ago, Jebman said:

You're under an WWA right now, Northern Virginia, but trust me, its gonna get upgraded to a warning. Its only a matter of time.

You guys are on a heater. There's just no doubt about it. No sleep at all, none, all you are gonna do is chase exciting model runs and drink gallons of coffee then watch the snowstorm unfold right in front of you! You're gonna pile up snow on snow!

This is going to be a fun winter!

Yup...as famous weather weenie Robert Nesta Marley sang - "Strike the hammer while iron is hot"

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4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Yup...as famous weather weenie Robert Nesta Marley sang - "Strike the hammer while iron is hot"

If this little anafrontal deal the GFS is showing for Sunday/Monday turns into a thing, then we really know the horseshoe is firmly inserted into our asses.

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Super long range 00z HRRR QPF map shows the banding potential the Twitter Mets highlighted earlier.  This run of the HRRR puts one basically right along I-95.

I’d take this run in a heartbeat.  

image.thumb.png.4cc17646414408f4a81e557e897cf6d3.png

There's going to be some 8" totals in this

Those bands

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Super long range 00z HRRR QPF map shows the banding potential the Twitter Mets highlighted earlier.  This run of the HRRR puts one basically right along I-95.

I’d take this run in a heartbeat.  

image.thumb.png.4cc17646414408f4a81e557e897cf6d3.png

I would gladly take that .4 in Smithsburg.  Would probably translate into 5 to 7" with the expected ratios.

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