StantonParkHoya Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We need to just be glad it’s still showing a storm at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 18z GFSSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 No run is gonna be as good as the 12z. The fact that the signal is there, (big storms get sniffed out early), is awesome.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Need it further east so coastal areas get in the action. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 And again, this snow would remain on the ground for a white Christmas. Very cold after the storm, if it happens.Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks to me that vort was two far north and west. Plenty of time for that to change with the massive cold on its heels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks to me that vort was two far north and west. Plenty of time for that to change with the massive cold on its heels Yeah, it cut sooner due to the flatter ridge Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks like the GEFS is going to take a step back tooSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: Yeah, it cut sooner due to the flatter ridge Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Yeah slightly flatter ridge and an earlier phase turning the trough negative quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks like the GEFS is going to take a step back tooSent from my SM-S102DL using TapatalkThe 18z GEFS ain't got to that hour yet. Hold ya horses lolSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 The 18z GEFS ain't got to that hour yet. Hold ya horses lolSent from my SM-N981U using TapatalkThat may be so but I am just doing a basic observation off the lead-in 2m and 850mb temps, both went up for hr162Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We all know the rules in most of NC. Wet cold rain, or dry and terribly cold are safe bets until proven otherwise. Models see this when they get closer in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 GEFS looks good to me. Minimal changes, maybe actually small improvements. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 That may be so but I am just doing a basic observation off the lead-in 2m and 850mb temps, both went up for hr162Sent from my SM-S102DL using TapatalkCorrect but the storm doesn't really come until after hr 174Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 GEFS what you doingSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Y'all. Take a deep breath and step away from the models for a bit. We won't really know much about what's going to happen for another few days 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 18z GEFS Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Van Denton is a must-watch for the Triad in winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GEFS Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk What’s really odd is the low actually shifted closer to the coast on the 18z GEFS. Kinda thought it would increase the median but I’m still very pleased we have back to back solid runs. REALLY hoping to get something here. I wanted to see how far back the models nailed that Dakotas blizzard and they were toward a week or so forecasting what was going to transpire, which makes me feel good as we get closer. Let’s hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Before the 12z dream scenario no one on here would have complained with that run 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Before the 12z dream scenario no one on here would have complained with that run This. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 My gawd the mood swings up in here 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 I just have to say, this is a thing of beauty 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Those are from 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Those are from 12z Yes. The 18z ensembles have not loaded on wb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Overall QPF went up on the mean and snow went slightly down for most. Looking at the individuals there are a few more that get too amped up too quick and we rain. Small potatoes at this range, all in all still a great signal on the GEFS. And still showing potential past this 23rd threat as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Still looks good WB only runs the below algorithm at 0z and 12z 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Too early to be stressing amounts when we were canceling winter a few days ago. Just enjoy the ride everyone! Buckle up. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Man if I didn’t know anything and saw the map at 108 I’d think for sure we have a Miller A on our hands. Too bad that didn’t materialize. Let’s see what happens with the storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 This is about to be another big run I think of the GFS. Shortwave looks stronger than 18z and digging pretty far south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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