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Winter Banter


Rjay
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6 hours ago, gravitylover said:

January and Feb 2019, back to back ice storms, Feb 2021 two also and many other years were similar but my faulty brain is coming up empty. 

This area doesn't get many serious ice storms (>0.50 inch) and the big ones we did get didn't really affect us that much around here, they're far worse for the South as I've been repeatedly saying and Abbott's incompetence and lack of regulation of methane companies (so-called "natural" gas) hasn't helped any.

 

It's a good thing I remember pretty much everything I've ever seen or read...it comes in handy (especially for finding hidden patterns in even seemingly random things.)  I even remember stuff I memorized back in middle school, like pi to 100 digits, the presidents (first middle and last names), the chemical elements, the constellations, square root of 2 to 100 digits and the Greek alphabet.  I hope I die before I ever start to lose my memory.

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7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Having recently lived in both Bergen County NJ and Rockland County I can honestly say that Rockland is like a poor man’s version of Bergen County.

I've never been to either so I'll take your word for it.  I've actually never been north of Yankee Stadium or I-80/ GWB aside from my trips to Albany when I was a newspaper reporter covering the state capital.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I've never been to either so I'll take your word for it.  I've actually never been north of Yankee Stadium or I-80/ GWB aside from my trips to Albany when I was a newspaper reporter covering the state capital.

 

This is the most Long Island thing I think I've ever read.

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43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lmao probably.

Here's the ironic thing. I've been a lot more west (on I-80) than I have been north.  I just looked at anything north of the GWB/Yankee Stadium as the Arctic Tundra lol.

 

Good evening Liberty. It may have been a different story if the bridge had been built. As always ….

 

 

FEF0FE04-F03C-4898-BEA5-962309B4A545.png

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14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

one of my all time favorites.  historic ice storm and power didn't even budge

 

Yeah, 1994 was our most impressive ice storm.  It seems like we had around .5 to .75 ice build up on the trees. To get those totals we were near 20° at the start of the event.  The winds were very light in that storm so there weren’t any power outages in the Long Beach area. I can’t imagine what it would be like to get 3.00 of ice like areas to our north had in January 1998.

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

This storm had historic impacts across northern New York, northern New England and southeast Canada due to the prolonged duration of the event (both meteorological and recovery period) and the magnitude of ice accretion and precipitation amounts. The most famous meteorological aspect of this storm was the devastating and destructive ice accumulation of more than 3 inches (75mm) in portions of northern New York and southeast Canada, with heavy ice accumulation across northern New England as well. Another major aspect of this storm was the extremely heavy precipitation across the region, including over 5 inches of rain that caused major flooding in portions of western New York.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 1994 was our most impressive ice storm.  It seems like we had around .5 to .75 ice build up on the trees. To get those totals we were near 20° at the start of the event.  The winds were very light in that storm so there weren’t any power outages in the Long Beach area. I can’t imagine what it would be like to get 3.00 of ice like areas to our north had in January 1998.

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

This storm had historic impacts across northern New York, northern New England and southeast Canada due to the prolonged duration of the event (both meteorological and recovery period) and the magnitude of ice accretion and precipitation amounts. The most famous meteorological aspect of this storm was the devastating and destructive ice accumulation of more than 3 inches (75mm) in portions of northern New York and southeast Canada, with heavy ice accumulation across northern New England as well. Another major aspect of this storm was the extremely heavy precipitation across the region, including over 5 inches of rain that caused major flooding in portions of western New York.

 

 

Hey Chris is there any way to see what JFK's top ice storms were and their amounts?  Curious to see how 1994 compares to 1973 which gets talked about so much.  I remember JFK didn't get to freezing in that storm at all.  It reminds me of how we had ice in VD2007 but that wasn't a pure ice storm, it started as snow.

 

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey Chris is there any way to see what JFK's top ice storms were and their amounts?  Curious to see how 1994 compares to 1973 which gets talked about so much.

 

You might have to find some old news articles. There was another ice storm in January 1978 along the Long Island South Shore . It wasn’t so bad in Long Beach with the temperature around 32°. But there was about .5 to .75 of ice along Sunrise highway were it was 30°. Long Beach had smaller ice storms only around .25 on Valentines Day 2007 and 2-2-11. 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You might have to find some old news articles. There was another ice storm in January 1978 along the Long Island South Shore . It wasn’t so bad in Long Beach with the temperature around 32°. But there was about .5 to .75 of ice along Sunrise highway were it was 30°. Long Beach had smaller ice storms only around .25 on Valentines Day 2007 and 2-2-11. 

I lived in Lawrence in 1994 and from what I remember it was more than an inch of ice, so I'm trying to get a JFK amount..  It was on my railings outside my side door I remember I was shocked how thick the ice was, and there was a nice layer of sleet under that.  How long did that storm last?  Was it a two part storm?  The high temp was around 31 so just below freezing towards the end of the storm.

One of my favorite memories from that winter (the other was the unique daytime thundersnow CG event in early February.)

 

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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I lived in Lawrence in 1994 and from what I remember it was more than an inch of ice, so I'm trying to get a JFK amount..  It was on my railings outside my side door I remember I was shocked how thick the ice was, and there was a nice layer of sleet under that.  How long did that storm last?  Was it a two part storm?  The high temp was around 31 so just below freezing towards the end of the storm.

One of my favorite memories from that winter (the other was the unique daytime thundersnow CG event in early February.)

 

I remember light freezing rain starting in Long Beach around 7am in January 1994. It became moderate during the afternoon. Then briefly heavy in the evening before the temperatures went above freezing around 9 pm. Probably the most challenging driving conditions that I have ever experienced. The trees were gorgeous the next day when sun came out. 

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53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I remember light freezing rain starting in Long Beach around 7am in January 1994. It became moderate during the afternoon. Then briefly heavy in the evening before the temperatures went above freezing around 9 pm. Probably the most challenging driving conditions that I have ever experienced. The trees were gorgeous the next day when sun came out. 

Thats the thing, we never went above freezing here.  I kept checking the temperatures all night, at the height of it around 2-3 am we were 30-31 and JFK stayed in the upper 20s, similar to VD 2007

I remember the beautiful crystalline nature of the trees, looking like prisms in the bright sunlight under a backdrop of the clear blue skies.

 

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

You might have to find some old news articles. There was another ice storm in January 1978 along the Long Island South Shore . It wasn’t so bad in Long Beach with the temperature around 32°. But there was about .5 to .75 of ice along Sunrise highway were it was 30°. Long Beach had smaller ice storms only around .25 on Valentines Day 2007 and 2-2-11. 

http://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.html

 

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6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Quick post: NCEP EMC knows about the GFS problems handling sleet and snow mixes as all snow at 10 to 1. They also know that this biases GFS snow depth and make the boundary layer too cold (also this mornings busted temps on the se edge of the freezing rain).  May also be affecting  the FV3 shorter range model seen in TT.  All this in an 11AM WPC-EMC meeting yesterday. 

When it gets fixed?  Do not know. They did not have enough ice event samples in 2019-20 to witness this as problem for the recently implemented GFS upgrade.

Next: I like the pattern for Feb and if the SSW is real, could be a fun and interesting end to winter. All I know is that I won't end up with the 14.4" of snow so far this winter and could see a doubling or tripling by April 15 (especially if SSW) to get me to 40"?  I suppose that's a long shot but Feb pattern and possible SSW offer a little hope.

My concern is that the EPS weeklies do not seem to be doing well after 2 weeks, and I do not see a huge warmup in the east until we consistently lose the ridge in AK.  

Take a look at Feb 7-8: Some have given up, just as it's starting to look better. Could be NC to BOS near I95 period of snow or maybe a bit more than that?  

The 500MB pattern imo favors more events along the east coast with the cold trough straddling 80-85W for much of the month. As long as we keep getting 1045-55MB highs moving se out of W Canada, there is hope. Do NOT want to replace that consistently with low pressure.

Will post ice accums when its over in the thread.

Gotta work and expecting/hoping for a healthy grandchild #2 at Noon. 

 

Congratulations Walt, hope all are well and healthy!

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

This is how its going to be otherwise no one would ever come to these subforums lol

 

I have a family member to take off at 629P LGA.  I advised yesterday to keep the plan and not cancel.  Now I may regret that advise.  Temp 32F at 3P there will only go down with intermittent on-going precip through about 11PM I think. This means deicing the aircraft and getting it off the ground right away if I read the precip and temp cards correctly.  So the thread is of value and you have alot more info on how model problems develop and where errors can occur.  33 and rain is turning to ice for aircraft...which also prefer no long duration low level holds in this mixed thermal qpf environment.  Wait til sundown when solar insolation disappears and the ground temp drops 2F and suddenly UNTREATED surface ice up quickly like the trees are during the day (Solar influence minimal for non leaved trees) . It's interesting.  

 

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