Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m by no means an expert but I’m starting  to think we’ll (the USA) be lucky to emerge from this with only a world wide depression/Great Recession taking place 

The recession was already coming, this will just speed it up.

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The recession was already coming, this will just speed it up.

Mortgage rates to 7% will hurt a lot too. Bad times coming. Stock up. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

58 minutes ago, tamarack said:

How do you like the Maverick?  It looks like it's closer in size to the old Ranger than to the new.  Having driven Rangers/Mazdas since 1994, I've been disappointed at the lack of non-monster pickups.

It is based on the Ford Escape platform.  I’ve seen a couple.  Size is good. Price is good.  Capability is questionable   

[weathafella]

43 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Mortgage rates to 7% will hurt a lot too. Bad times coming. Stock up. 

Interesting.  When I bought a house in Los Angeles in 1980, I got a great deal with a fixed rate of 13%.   When I bought a house here in 1997 it was maybe 8%.  Ultimately I refinanced that down to 4% which seemed rock bottom.  I honestly could have put a lot more cash buying my current house but I surmised my savings will well exceed the 3.62% fixed rate and they obviously did. I’m now paying 2.8% on a 30 year fixed.   Mortgage rates 5-7% are historically not bad.  We just happen to be in a period that probably won’t replicate for awhile.  Someone your ago should be heavy equity invested.

[NorEastermass128]

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Interesting.  When I bought a house in Los Angeles in 1980, I got a great deal with a fixed rate of 13%.   When I bought a house here in 1997 it was maybe 8%.  Ultimately I refinanced that down to 4% which seemed rock bottom.  I honestly could have put a lot more cash buying my current house but I surmised my savings will well exceed the 3.62% fixed rate and they obviously did. I’m now paying 2.8% on a 30 year fixed.   Mortgage rates 5-7% are historically not bad.  We just happen to be in a period that probably won’t replicate for awhile.  Someone your ago should be heavy equity invested.

I’m FERS-FRAE. Saving 10% plus the 5% match. I’ve been house hunting for a year. One fell through because of the seller. The second fell through because we found out it was on a FEMA flood zone. We’re onto #3. Making an offer tonight. 

[weathafella]

49 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m FERS-FRAE. Saving 10% plus the 5% match. I’ve been house hunting for a year. One fell through because of the seller. The second fell through because we found out it was on a FEMA flood zone. We’re onto #3. Making an offer tonight. 

Good luck!

[IowaStorm05]

Those Iowa tornadoes struck pretty dang close to where I lived there. 

[IowaStorm05]

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The recession was already coming, this will just speed it up.

I put a huge write up right here actually about gas prices a couple days ago but I actually quickly deleted it because it was a massive rant and I felt it was too silly. 

But now I will say a shortened version... Gas prices had been low for a long enough time that SUV demand ratcheted up again in North America, and late in the process several auto makers began actually discontinuing sedans or sports cars or both. I have little doubt a recession is imminent, even in America. How severe is less certain, I just don't know.

I have been struck with disbelief at how quickly we forgot what it was like to have an SUV while gas prices are high.

SUV's made in the late 2010s are notably more fuel efficient than their 1990s or 2000s counterparts, but they are still not ideal for $6 gas. A lot of people now have SUVs instead of cars but those SUVs are mostly the unibody crossover type of a smaller variety. Still, Me thinks that Sedans are suddenly going to look appealing again because they are stlll more fuel efficient, to say nothing of electric cars, many of which are finally beginning to not cost 50,000 dollars. 

I wonder what a sudden recession materializing does to the corporate trend of having no problem jacking up consumer prices to ensure good profit margins. I realize companies need to survive, but I really get to feelin' that some of the people who are high on the totem pole of corporate finance and pricing are possibly psychopaths, and just don't care to give consumers a break even if it would not endanger the company's prosperity. 

[NorEastermass128]

WTI Crude surging like crazy. Just went over $125/barrel. 

[mreaves]

@ORH_wxmanis the RBOB, crack spread expert around here.  He has always had some good input regarding oil prices.  There was an interesting price split when I went to fill up today.  Most stations seemed to be in the $4.24 range but there are a couple of full service/garages that are closed on Sundays but you can still get gas using their pay at the pump.  Those places were $3.99.  I imagine they'll be upping the prices as soon as they open tomorrow morning.

[dendrite]

6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm getting my Mustang Mache in 2 weeks.  With an electric vehicle I get the $7500 fed tax credit, $1000 cash from my electric provider and for $3 per month my 240v outlet will have its own meter at .11 kwh.  So I should be able to drive about 100 miles for $3.50   The downside is there are not many NH superchargers other than Teslas.   We also have our new Ford Maverick hybrid truck which gets almost 40mpg.

heh...you've got me pricing an all-electric F-150 out.

Thinkin' about it...

[mreaves]

7 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm getting my Mustang Mache in 2 weeks.  With an electric vehicle I get the $7500 fed tax credit, $1000 cash from my electric provider and for $3 per month my 240v outlet will have its own meter at .11 kwh.  So I should be able to drive about 100 miles for $3.50   The downside is there are not many NH superchargers other than Teslas.   We also have our new Ford Maverick hybrid truck which gets almost 40mpg.

 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

heh...you've got me pricing an all-electric F-150 out.

Thinkin' about it...

You guys need to get one of these.  The company had their American roll out yesterday in Stowe and I got to hop on one.  It was a blast

https://www.taigamotors.com/products/nomad

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

WTI Crude surging like crazy. Just went over $125/barrel. 

Breaking point coming This week…$5 gas by this coming weekend at the latest 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Breaking point coming This week…$5 gas by this coming weekend at the latest 

Good times. I doubt we see $5/gallon. Maybe $4.75-4.85 at the peak?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Good times. I doubt we see $5/gallon. Maybe $4.75-4.85 at the peak?

I’m not optimistic… it’s gone up like 75 cents in a week lol. Hard to imagine it stopping now 

[QCD17]

I think there is a huge opportunity for electric boats.  Most pleasure boats you see at the marina have an outboard, so there is the possibility of retrofitting an existing hull vs. buying a whole new boat.  People mostly boat in warm/sunny weather, so solar can be a big part of it..  Some boats have room for a solar panel on top, and most boats just sit in the marina 50%+ of the time, baking in the sun all summer.  Those boats could all plugged into the marina's grid, where everyone can plug in and get charged up.  The challenge lies with the battery size/weight and how many hours of cruising time you can get.  But if I had $millions to invest, I would be looking into it.

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, QCD17 said:

I think there is a huge opportunity for electric boats.  Most pleasure boats you see at the marina have an outboard, so there is the possibility of retrofitting an existing hull vs. buying a whole new boat.  People mostly boat in warm/sunny weather, so solar can be a big part of it..  Some boats have room for a solar panel on top, and most boats just sit in the marina 50%+ of the time, baking in the sun all summer.  Those boats could all plugged into the marina's grid, where everyone can plug in and get charged up.  The challenge lies with the battery size/weight and how many hours of cruising time you can get.  But if I had $millions to invest, I would be looking into it.

Check that link I posted above for the electric snowmobile. The company is also developing an electric jet ski. If it’s anything like the snowmobile, it will be a blast to ride. 

[PhineasC]

29 minutes ago, QCD17 said:

I think there is a huge opportunity for electric boats.  Most pleasure boats you see at the marina have an outboard, so there is the possibility of retrofitting an existing hull vs. buying a whole new boat.  People mostly boat in warm/sunny weather, so solar can be a big part of it..  Some boats have room for a solar panel on top, and most boats just sit in the marina 50%+ of the time, baking in the sun all summer.  Those boats could all plugged into the marina's grid, where everyone can plug in and get charged up.  The challenge lies with the battery size/weight and how many hours of cruising time you can get.  But if I had $millions to invest, I would be looking into it.

I have a boat that sits in a marina all summer and that all sounds like a great way to have another component that breaks and costs 3,000 dollars to fix. 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I have a boat that sits in a marina all summer and that all sounds like a great way to have another component that breaks and costs 3,000 dollars to fix. 

The beauty of electric motors is that there are far fewer moving parts to break. 

[eekuasepinniW]

I was able to reduce my gas usage by losing just the right amount of eyesight to make driving doable but terrifying. I think I put more miles on my riding mower than my car the last few years. 

[PhineasC]

27 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The beauty of electric motors is that there are far fewer moving parts to break. 

Salt water and electronics are a bitch, though.

[monadnocks]

8 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm getting my Mustang Mache in 2 weeks.  With an electric vehicle I get the $7500 fed tax credit, $1000 cash from my electric provider and for $3 per month my 240v outlet will have its own meter at .11 kwh.  So I should be able to drive about 100 miles for $3.50   The downside is there are not many NH superchargers other than Teslas.   We also have our new Ford Maverick hybrid truck which gets almost 40mpg.

Last winter we bought a Bolt (yes, the halt and catch fire car). This fall, with no indication that energy prices would be any weirder than they were then, I locked electricity rates in for three years. At the moment, we're trying to try drive it most of the time. The whole solar panel idea is also good but not sure given our location if it would be truly useful in terms of generation, never mind ROI.

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, QCD17 said:

I think there is a huge opportunity for electric boats.  Most pleasure boats you see at the marina have an outboard, so there is the possibility of retrofitting an existing hull vs. buying a whole new boat.  People mostly boat in warm/sunny weather, so solar can be a big part of it..  Some boats have room for a solar panel on top, and most boats just sit in the marina 50%+ of the time, baking in the sun all summer.  Those boats could all plugged into the marina's grid, where everyone can plug in and get charged up.  The challenge lies with the battery size/weight and how many hours of cruising time you can get.  But if I had $millions to invest, I would be looking into it.

All of the boats on the lake where my girlfriend lives, with the exception of a tiny contingent are required to electric.

[IowaStorm05]

2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

WTI Crude surging like crazy. Just went over $125/barrel. 

This is dangerous. I am not an oil expert, so I can’t really make any definite accusations but I am left with the feeling that you have a bunch of traders jumping up and down with joy over profits at the cost of triggering a session and economic malaise of a lot of people. 
 

It’s not like I can really judge someone for seeking to make more money in of itself, but they really should have something to make sure gas can’t reach something like $10 per gallon or it will shut the country down.

I’m assuming $10 gas would require $200 per barrel

there really is a fundamental problem with energy costs with the system if gas would be $1.85 in 2020 and then $6 or $7 in 2022. That is a severe shock. It’s not an optional luxury. It’s frickin energy.

[weathafella]

58 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This is dangerous. I am not an oil expert, so I can’t really make any definite accusations but I am left with the feeling that you have a bunch of traders jumping up and down with joy over profits at the cost of triggering a session and economic malaise of a lot of people. 
 

It’s not like I can really judge someone for seeking to make more money in of itself, but they really should have something to make sure gas can’t reach something like $10 per gallon or it will shut the country down.

I’m assuming $10 gas would require $200 per barrel

there really is a fundamental problem with energy costs with the system if gas would be $1.85 in 2020 and then $6 or $7 in 2022. That is a severe shock. It’s not an optional luxury. It’s frickin energy.

People forget that 10 years ago price/gallon was >$4.00 in many areas.   I remember taking my daughter to her friends house one Saturday around 2013 or 2014 and gas went below $4 and I was amazed.  We’ve gotten used to high supply and lower demand and cheap oil for many years.   We were cycling higher and now we have a potential supply crisis and the OPECkers are continuing to squeeze us by not increasing production.

[IowaStorm05]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

People forget that 10 years ago price/gallon was >$4.00 in many areas.   I remember taking my daughter to her friends house one Saturday around 2013 or 2014 and gas went below $4 and I was amazed.  We’ve gotten used to high supply and lower demand and cheap oil for many years.   We were cycling higher and now we have a potential supply crisis and the OPECkers are continuing to squeeze us by not increasing production.

This is correct. But I did not forget it at all, earlier today I was talking about how people forgot the late 2000s and early 2010s prices in the context of causing SUVs to become semi taboo. But then the prices of gas fell in the late 2010s and auto makers wasted no time ushering them back in, sometimes to the exclusion of Sedans.

what you say seems to confirm my suspicions, that perhaps this is the actions of psychopaths or maybe a mere shortage of workers.

$4 in 2008 is equal to $5 now. The problem is, It is probably not going to stop at $5 now… and despite knowing we don’t have the whole mortgage crisis deal this time, I would imagine if gas averages went north of $5 in the US, it will trigger a recession. It could also create a situation of people springing for electric cars, serving to inflate the price of those. As usual, people in lower economic status will get the shaft, they cannot spring for a $37,000 dollar electric car at the drop of a hat.

Still, if gas prices really stay this high, it will accelerate investment in electric cars overall and given how much more they are ubiquitous than the were in, say, 2012, this could actually backfire on big oil somehow by leading to permanently lower demand. But that could take years. But then my question is how much of big oil is fueled by driving, and if that could play out this way.

[Ginx snewx]

We are screwed

[SlantStick]

They are just so smug about it...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not optimistic… it’s gone up like 75 cents in a week lol. Hard to imagine it stopping now 

It’s the trading of oil on the markets that is out of control. Consumers get screwed, as always, while the fat cats get fatter…even off tragedy.

[Hoth]

9 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This is correct. But I did not forget it at all, earlier today I was talking about how people forgot the late 2000s and early 2010s prices in the context of causing SUVs to become semi taboo. But then the prices of gas fell in the late 2010s and auto makers wasted no time ushering them back in, sometimes to the exclusion of Sedans.

what you say seems to confirm my suspicions, that perhaps this is the actions of psychopaths or maybe a mere shortage of workers.

$4 in 2008 is equal to $5 now. The problem is, It is probably not going to stop at $5 now… and despite knowing we don’t have the whole mortgage crisis deal this time, I would imagine if gas averages went north of $5 in the US, it will trigger a recession. It could also create a situation of people springing for electric cars, serving to inflate the price of those. As usual, people in lower economic status will get the shaft, they cannot spring for a $37,000 dollar electric car at the drop of a hat.

Still, if gas prices really stay this high, it will accelerate investment in electric cars overall and given how much more they are ubiquitous than the were in, say, 2012, this could actually backfire on big oil somehow by leading to permanently lower demand. But that could take years. But then my question is how much of big oil is fueled by driving, and if that could play out this way.

At some point high energy prices will create real demand destruction, but nobody can say when that will transpire. Take 2008. The economy was already in deep recession and the banking system was imploding and oil was nearing $150. It eventually imploded into the $30s. 

Anyway, I wouldn't expect EVs to be some kind of haven. Charging rates are often based on electricity produced by natural gas or oil. And take a look at the commodity price trends for many EV components. Going vertical. Battery packs are going to get miiiiighty pricey.