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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas


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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually....

But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice:

 

 

Dec15_12zEPS360.png

It seems like I kind of rushed everything a hair in my outlook, and the early Dec warmup following the coolish Novie was more pronounced and protracted than postulated.

I never mowed again after returning from Africa, so while it wasn't a lot, some areas needed touching up. I have one oak in my neighbor's yard that haunts me into December, as they all blow to me on west winds, which is the majority of the time...its finally done.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually....

But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice:

 

 

Dec15_12zEPS360.png

 

Honestly don't recall ever seeing that type of pattern for any duration longer than a few days...usually that sort of RNA setup in the EPAC/W Coast occurs in regimes where your NAO/AO is positive 9 out of 10 times...

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually....

But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice:

 

 

Dec15_12zEPS360.png

Forkys face as he realizes how wrong he was

.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually....

But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice:

 

 

Dec15_12zEPS360.png

I am guessing the only thing that would be a concern is lack of precipitation/dry? Otherwise that's a great blocking setup.

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The woods behind my house has a ton of oaks...so even though I had the yard pristine 3 weeks ago, there are a lot of stragglers that blew leaves into the yard. Really annoying actually....

But anyways, EPS going full nuclear into January is nice:

 

 

Dec15_12zEPS360.png

How long do you think it's sticking around?

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18z NAM wasn't just north, but it was weaker with confluence, so you dont get that nice fronto thump....the precip is more diffuse. Hopefully it's just a happy hour sauce run....but who knows. I do expect this to trend north at some point, but my hope is that we get a few ticks colder before that happens.

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19 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How long do you think it's sticking around?

Your guess is prob as good as mine. :lol:

But there are some good signs that it will be around for at least 2-3 weeks....the PV really gets stretched and takes a good hit, so that will want to promote blocking sticking around for more than just a week or so....the weeklies have been hinting at this staying around for a few weeks as well....and the ensembles have been showing a very strong signal for so far out in the run. Usually when you add all those up, it's a sign that the pattern isn't just a 7-10 day transient blip....we're likely going to have the blocking around well into January.

But as we all know, LR forecasting is the ultimate humbling hobby, so things could change.

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Hey I have a WWA for tonight:

https://www.weather.gov/btv/headlines

.WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to two inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Most areas along and east of the Green Mountains in 
  Vermont.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions tonight, including
  the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will begin by late this afternoon and  
  gradually mix with sleet and freezing rain before changing over 
  to all rain during the early morning hours on Thursday. Road 
  temperatures will be cold enough to enhance the potential for 
  freezing rain and difficult travel conditions.

 

Big big winter in progress!

 

NWS map:

StormTotalSnow.jpg

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57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Honestly don't recall ever seeing that type of pattern for any duration longer than a few days...usually that sort of RNA setup in the EPAC/W Coast occurs in regimes where your NAO/AO is positive 9 out of 10 times...

December 1970 looked a lot like that.

 

Dec1970.gif

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