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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...dude? It is a nina after all! Southern stream doesn't exist in these, lol

Lol it’s been like that to a tee so far, though looks like more active weather coming up. This winter really seems like a roll of the dice. One thing I can say is that aside from Ida (not that I was rooting for the damage it caused) it really hasn’t been a very exciting weather year, imo. I’m ready for something to track.

Edit: I should say large scale weather…there were a few healthy storms over the summer.

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26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

1) It’s not even met winter yet but the crying has already started.

2) our winter in this region aligns much more with astronomical winter than it does with met winter

1) I sure would like to know how you think people SHOULD act--especially in the most predictable ENSO state for the region.

2) That is true...history bears that out. And even in our best winters, mid Jan--President's Day (and occasionally early March) are the peak times. 

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Lol it’s been like that to a tee so far, though looks like more active weather coming up. This winter really seems like a roll of the dice. One thing I can say is that aside from Ida (not that I was rooting for the damage it caused) it really hasn’t been a very exciting weather year, imo. I’m ready for something to track.

Edit: I should say large scale weather…there were a few healthy storms over the summer.

While have a hard time believing a nina can be a roll of the dice (unless it's all the sides say "sucks", lol)...I guess any period of cold+ storminess can be worth tracking to see if we can get a few crumbs from something that passes north!

And yeah we have been lacking a bit in excitement this year...though severe season did have some nice moments (at least imby).

Side note: I was a bit confused about why the hurricane season ended so abruptly given the nina state...

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38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

1) I sure would like to know how you think people SHOULD act--especially in the most predictable ENSO state for the region.

2) That is true...history bears that out. And even in our best winters, mid Jan--President's Day (and occasionally early March) are the peak times. 

 

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

While have a hard time believing a nina can be a roll of the dice (unless it's all the sides say "sucks", lol)...I guess any period of cold+ storminess can be worth tracking to see if we can get a few crumbs from something that passes north!

And yeah we have been lacking a bit in excitement this year...though severe season did have some nice moments (at least imby).

Side note: I was a bit confused about why the hurricane season ended so abruptly given the nina state...

calm down. Let’s look at Nina’s in the last 30 years. 1996 was a Nina. And yea it was one fluke and I doubt that happens again nothing is set in stone. 
 

99/2000 And 2005/6 were near normal snowfall nina years. Both featured a big storm.

98/99, 2008/9, 2010/11, 2017/18, 2020/21 most of the region had at least one decent snowfall.

Only 2001, 2012, and 2017 were total duds and even those years there was some snow and threats to track.  We didn’t get lucky.  But your insistence we are doomed to no snowfall due to La Niña is not supported by historical probabilities.  

 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

calm down. Let’s look at Nina’s in the last 30 years. 1996 was a Nina. And yea it was one fluke and I doubt that happens again nothing is set in stone. 
 

99/2000 And 2005/6 were near normal snowfall nina years. Both featured a big storm.

98/99, 2008/9, 2010/11, 2017/18, 2020/21 most of the region had at least one decent snowfall.

Only 2001, 2012, and 2017 were total duds and even those years there was some snow and threats to track.  We didn’t get lucky.  But your insistence we are doomed to no snowfall due to La Niña is not supported by historical probabilities.  

 

Exactly. Wont be a shutout. But is going to require alot of patience. 

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10 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest GEFS extended and control…still dreaming of a cold, stormy pattern before Christmas.

I have not seen the Control for the GFS or the Euro score a win in many years during the late Fall or Winter when it comes to predicting potential snowfall.    Meanwhile, I would be concerned regarding a poor NAM state, and the lack of any posts from HM about the upcoming winter.  :thumbsdown: 

 

1069305451_ao.sprd2(23).thumb.gif.6dcf297bf90bd7cc07555cf8c6a25285.gif 

 

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Other than maybe a chance at something next week (seems low now), GEFS at day 15 is not promising for a lot of December.  Looks like the only hope is to have that Alaskan ridge push into the EPO region to dislodge some cold into the CONUS, but these anomalies are the opposite of what we would want.

 

 

GEFS Dec.png

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49 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Other than maybe a chance at something next week (seems low now), GEFS at day 15 is not promising for a lot of December.  Looks like the only hope is to have that Alaskan ridge push into the EPO region to dislodge some cold into the CONUS, but these anomalies are the opposite of what we would want.

 

 

GEFS Dec.png

sounds pretty great actually lol.  let it snow in jan/feb.  so far, if there wasn't any talk about la nina, then i would have thought we'd be in for a solid winter because it has most certainly been chilly for the last month or so, albeit not very active.  today's weather is an example of what i'm done with.  let's reboot this pattern and see what happens in the jan/feb wheelhouse.

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I may be retired, but I can dust off the ole tried and true panic cycle. The psychology of weenies (overly optimistic and overly pessimistic) has always fascinated me. 
 

nz2RTWo.png

Even if you don’t want to do the burials, can you at least bring back the winter despair rating scale?

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5 hours ago, mappy said:

IMO, the best frame of mind is a pessimistic one. then you can't be disappointed when the winter sucks. 

Exactly where I'm at. I'm resigned...especially given this nina. But yet...when I speak from where I'm at (that this winter is pretty much a foregone conclusion based on nina history), I somehow need to...calm down? Act like an adult? What...I'm just being a realist (or so I thought).

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Just now, TSG said:

It's absolutely an answer. What did you want him to say? would "stop crying like a baby" have been better?

I don't get it...like, seriously. Like it's illogical to want snow, or be disappointed when it doesn't. I mean who here ain't? So again...explain. You're NOT supposed to do any of those things?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't get it...like, seriously. Like it's illogical to want snow, or be disappointed when it doesn't. I mean who here ain't? So again...explain. You're NOT supposed to do any of those things?

Dude everyone wants it to snow in here. The difference is we all don't moan about it week in and week out when it doesn't. We get that you're invested and want to learn but the constant reiteration of the same statements over and over is exhausting. "It's a nina so it's pretty much a done deal this winter will suck".... you've said that like 20x over the past month. It adds NOTHING to the conversation. Like if you really believe that why are you here, go outside and enjoy the blowtorch

 

I don't want to mute you because you seem like a genuinely nice person... but I'm sure others already have.

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19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Exactly where I'm at. I'm resigned...especially given this nina. But yet...when I speak from where I'm at (that this winter is pretty much a foregone conclusion based on nina history), I somehow need to...calm down? Act like an adult? What...I'm just being a realist (or so I thought).

OT - but just a few friendly tips. I generally enjoy you as a poster - but you've gotta just chill a bit. There's a big difference between being in the crowd of "assuming it'll be a lower end winter - and being happily surprised if anything nice happens" and being an absolute deb at every opportunity. 

@mappy - just quietly sort of makes one comment and it's more of a "let's see what happens and it is what it is" 

Your posts tend to come across as much more of a "omg it really won't snow ever - we just need to throw in the towel because it's over and won't ever snow this winter"

I know those aren't your exact words - and I know you're trying to learn about meteorology (as we all are from the pros on here) - but I'd lean towards the mappy approach. You can definitely absorb what the pros are teaching us without needing to necessarily have a response. 

I've seen you post questions like "well there has to be an explanation as to why it doesn't snow anymore" and similar. 

There's rarely a single, catch-all answer to things in this field and it sometimes feels like you're assuming it's all down to one thing. 

Post counts aren't everything. I think we all have been through phases of panic over no snow and angst. I get it. Moderation is the key. I was really, really similar to you back in the EasternUSWX days. 

Just remember that the weather is going to do whatever the weather is going to do. As much as we joke about things like the snow blower curse, or cursing things with radio shows - there's so much in this field that is still unknown. 

It is what it is.

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