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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Across all guidance the trend is a better cold push but also a weaker system. That also means colder but in a Nina sheared apart is always a threat. This was always a thread the needle. Still is. 

I heard ukmet was decent

That's unfortunate

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There's not much more that needs to be dissected in the upper air pattern on the GFS and Euro to see why the two are so different. 

173914142_ECMWF5H1205.thumb.png.63af2b1fd7954fe92b03cb914a2df07e.png

Here's the Euro for 12z Wednesday. Look at the amplitude of the flow out ahead of the s/w that's moving through the Tenn. Valley. The height rises are almost non-existent, meaning the diffluent pattern is aimed at VA with weak PVA over MD to offer some light snow chances that'll amount to T-1" totals with 1-3" south of Fredericksburg.

Now, let's look at the 06z GFS....

331379669_GFS5H1205.thumb.png.755b3c112c83e2fef71928ac6c0d2780.png

Look at the vigor of the s/w over the Tenn. Valley and the attendant height rises out ahead of the disturbance. It's night and day where the diffluent pattern downstream is all the way up into MD/PA, meaning the mean QPF shield would be focused in our neck of the woods. Now, the thermal profile is more touchy in the beginning with some sleet/zr depictions at first, but when the upstream s/w over Minnesota catches up to the lead s/w, it amplifies the disturbance nearby and the dynamics aloft aid in changing precip back to snow for the back half of the storm, especially for areas north Rt 50. This is the best type of progression for a light-mod event with 2-5" possible for a larger coverage of the sub-forum. 

Keep an eye on those features as they are the main players in this ordeal. Flow will be fast, so don't expect any super amplification on this one. Quick and dirty is how you rack up stats in these parts outside the KU's and SWFE's. 

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