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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Today's edition of the Weeklies isn't awful at h5 for the last week of the month with a slightly -EPO/-NAO, with surface temps average to slightly below. The most impressive feature is still the +heights near the Aleutians. Soo Nina. Conceivably workable though if it were to somehow materialize. Not a torch for the holidays at least lol.1640822400-R9v6r5LeJKQ.png

That screams cold/dry warm/wet to me.  We need the epo ridge to extend into western Canada without blocking. An epo ridge with no blocking tends to have storms cut to our west. We get cold behind them but I don’t see what would keep any amplified storm under us in that look.  Could see ice perhaps in that setup. It’s forever out. What we need is either for that epo ridge that shift east or for the NAO to go negative 

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Nothing has outdone GFS ensembles or Euro from 2013. Those Euro weeklies have to have some other purpose. I like the warmth in northern Europe/Russia at Day 14-15, but it's starting to evolve wrong the last 1-2 runs. Sometimes lately the Northern Europe warmth has been +time correlated with SE ridge, instead of -NAO.That's why I ask if there's a 10mb warming signature with it (probably not, also the last 21 -NAO's have been -PNA or +EPO). 

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That screams cold/dry warm/wet to me.  We need the epo ridge to extend into western Canada without blocking. An epo ridge with no blocking tends to have storms cut to our west. We get cold behind them but I don’t see what would keep any amplified storm under us in that look.  Could see ice perhaps in that setup. It’s forever out. What we need is either for that epo ridge that shift east or for the NAO to go negative 
Seems like we can't buy a real epo ridge anymore. We have had more luck lately with greenland ridging
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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Somehow we managed to totally waste a pretty good longwave pattern Jan and Feb that winter. Did get a storm in early March. 

tempwise, i feel like this has been a pretty classic start to the season (minus today).  it's just been a dry pattern overall which i can tell just from riding the trails recently.  it's gonna be interesting to see how this season plays out.  i saw that denver is in a snow drought as well.  not sure what that means for the mid-atlantic, but we're not alone.  need a more active southern stream as just about everyone has said and less reliance on upper midwest clipper scraps.

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

How did we waste this in January 2009?   8934D3F6-070B-48C1-8E74-055836F4D684.png.0aacfdb6f7c151b396049afd97b92f64.png

asking because this year kinda reminds me of Dec 2008 so far. 

I remember that winter being incredibly frustrating.  I think our snowfall up here was roughly average, but I remember it consisting of small snow-to-rain events.  Just bad luck?

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