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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We are well past peak now here in Metuchen with the foliage. The past week of cool temps with numerous nights of frost made up for the warm October. 

Almost impossible to say in Garwood, central Union County.  The color last week was bland, and now, with half the leaves down, the color has turned much more vibrant.

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Sad to say, no confidence at all in any of these 'forecasts'.

Here in sunny Manhattan, the forecast changed in minutes from weekly nighttime lows in the high 40s to the mid 30s .

Clearly there remains great uncertainty.

Imho, forecasts will not improve until forecasters are compelled to post their prior forecasts as well.

Right now, the past is completely opaque, no weather channel afaik allows one to go back a day to see what actually happened.

This unwillingness to honestly face up to what worked and what did not is probably a result of TV/net  channel pressures, the effect remains the same.

Those unable to learn from the past simply make the same mistakes again.

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Mild and tranquil conditions came to a crashing end as violent thunderstorms with high winds, hail, and heavy downpours moved rapidly across the region. Tornadoes inflicted damage in parts of Long Island. In the wake of the responsible frontal passage, temperatures plummeted into the lower and middle 40s.

Tomorrow will be an unseasonably cool day. Much of the region will see temperatures rise no higher than the middle and upper 40s. The cool weather will likely continue until midweek.

Overall, there remains uncertainty about the temperature anomaly for the second half of November. With the MJO oscillating between Phases 3 and 4 over the past week, there is little signal for a change from the current back-and-forth pattern. The CFSv2 actually shows a strong warmup during and beyond week 1, but it is currently a warm outlier. However, the risk of that scenario cannot be written off altogether.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 13 4 pm is 16.11".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +13.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.195 today.

On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.132 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.071 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal).

 

 

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The December pattern will probably begin to set up during the last week of November. We need a strong cutter or hugger to pump the -NAO into December like last year. All our La Ninas that have near to above normal snows have a front loaded part when we put down snow at some point in December.  This was true during our last La Niña Decembers in 2016 and 2017.

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AE53A5C2-0735-4945-A072-CA5EF1FE2D71.thumb.png.41ea18a1aeff72d8f6c117824dc310bf.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  48degs.(42/53), or +1.

Month to date is  50.9[+0.2].        Should be about  49.8[+0.5] by the 22nd.

Reached 61 briefly yesterday.

Today:  46-50, wind w., m. sunny then clouds move in.    42 tomorrow AM.      Our last 60 on the 18th.?    All 5-Day periods centered on the 21st. to the 30th. look BN.

40*(74%RH) here at 6am.     42* at 9pm.      44* at 10am.      46* at 11pm.     47* at Noon.      Reached 48* at 3pm.

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13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter forecasts from many people have a wintry December . After that is when things are unclear.

DT states that February is unclear.

The pattern has become clear…

 

Transient cold shots that last 3 to 4 days;  2 to 3 days well above normal.

A lot depends on timing

I’m not sure what constitutes a “big” winter: 

1. snow

2. cold

3. both

 

If I was a betting man, I would go with 1 not 3…

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12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

The pattern has become clear…

 

Transient cold shots that last 3 to 4 days;  2 to 3 days well above normal.

A lot depends on timing

I’m not sure what constitutes a “big” winter: 

1. snow

2. cold

3. both

 

If I was a betting man, I would go with 1 not 3…

What has been clear ? It's only mid November.

Step down continues with a chilly Thanksgiving .

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8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 34F at 8 am. I really thought we were going below freezing when I saw 38° at 8 PM but I guess not

I don’t see any forecast that has central park getting below freezing anytime soon

Thanksgiving week most likely 

It's amazing how areas around the area have gotten to freezing many times and Central Park can't.  Have to get rid  of the asphalt  lol

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 48°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 54.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.5°; 15-Year: 55.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 56.4°

Unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek.

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