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51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has a nice cold shot on turkey week

It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. The monthly temperature departure may not be decided until the end of the month.

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. So the monthly temperature may not be decided until the end of the minth.

 

The one constant, consistent theme on all models is the solid +EPO. You aren’t sustaining cold even with a -WPO in that situation  

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An advancing cold front brought some periods of rain and gusty winds to the region. During the afternoon, sunshine returned from west to east. Rainfall totals were generally lighter than 0.50".

New York City's year-to-date rainfall increased to 57.71", which ranks 2021 as the 14th wettest year on record. There is an implied 95% probability (1971-2020 base) that New York City will reach 60" or more precipitation for only the 9th time on record. There is an implied 41% probability that New York City could reach 65" or more precipitation for the year. The last time New York City recorded 60" or more annual precipitation was 2018 when 65.55" of precipitation was measured.

In the wake of the cold front's passage, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week. Tomorrow could see an afternoon shower or thundershower as lapse rates increase and very cool air moves aloft. Sunday will be even cooler with the temperature staying below 50° in many parts of the region.

Overall, there remains considerable uncertainty about the temperature anomaly for the second half of November. With the MJO oscillating between Phases 3 and 4 over the past week, there is little signal for a change from the current back-and-forth pattern. The CFSv2 actually shows a strong warmup during and beyond week 1, but it is currently a warm outlier. However, the risk of that scenario cannot be written off altogether.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 12 4 pm is 15.78".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +14.82 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.272 today.

On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.070 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.892 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal).

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. The monthly temperature departure may not be decided until the end of the month.

It does seem like we are going +EPO, with no real chance of -EPO this Winter. I bet it evolves into more -PNA, but that evolution could be interesting, especially with strong -NAO signal. The Pacific might actually just cancel out. 

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14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The one constant, consistent theme on all models is the solid +EPO. You aren’t sustaining cold even with a -WPO in that situation  

Yeah, that’s why we see the temperature back and forth continuing. The models have been too weak day 10 with the Pacific Jet. Notice how the day 5 has more of an Alaska +EPO trough than the day 10 was forecasting. 

New 120

947DE72F-0CDA-417C-8D69-5FAE89418817.thumb.png.b61d7ef253dd6fedeb95174d4544070b.png
 

Old 240

 

A4017128-3C80-4F41-A948-091BDB465310.thumb.png.7c4653f90cec04cc6c895c4577cf5b3e.png

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 48degs.(42/54), or +1.

Reached 66* here yesterday.

Today:  56-59, winds e. to s. and gusty in PM., chance of rain then too.    40* by tomorrow AM.

54*(75%RH) here at 6am.     56* at 7am.     58* by 8am.      59* at 9am.    60* at 9:30am.     61* briefly Noon.      TS/HAIL at 2pm-2:30pm  60 down to 56.      50* by 3pm, gusty.      46* at 4pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny, breezy, and cooler. A heavier shower or thundershower is likely. A few locations could even see some pea-sized hail. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 60°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 54.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 56.8°

Tomorrow and early next week will feature unseasonably cool weather.

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13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow it would be amazing if they ever got accumulating snow from a coastal storm

 

That’s exactly what happened during the February 1899 beast. Look into that storm if your interested in all kinds of crazy snow in the south. It just missed us up here but gave 30”+ to cape may. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

A storm during Thanksgiving week looks more and more likely  but right now it looks like rain for the coast and snow well inland. 

We could use a powerful storm like we got at the end of November last year. That system created a big wave breaking event over the North Atlantic. It pumped the -NAO ridge into December.

 

B3E20EC0-DF86-432C-9412-80E35E7EEFB6.gif.34039f5ab56f2784c4d5a0317676d008.gif

 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great news

Screenshot_20211113-084945_Twitter.jpg

This has been a given for months, just for perspective, 10-11 was westerly QBO and 11-12 was easterly QBO. Easterly QBO doesn’t automatically mean super cold and snowy winter, in fact, with the research HM did, he showed that easterly QBO along with La Niña results in a flat Aleutian ridge, the westerly QBO La Niña combo was found to result in a poleward Aleutian ridge 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why we see the temperature back and forth continuing. The models have been too weak day 10 with the Pacific Jet. Notice how the day 5 has more of an Alaska +EPO trough than the day 10 was forecasting. 

New 120

947DE72F-0CDA-417C-8D69-5FAE89418817.thumb.png.b61d7ef253dd6fedeb95174d4544070b.png
 

Old 240

 

A4017128-3C80-4F41-A948-091BDB465310.thumb.png.7c4653f90cec04cc6c895c4577cf5b3e.png

 

Besides the +EPO issue, we now have consensus on a strong SPV for the foreseeable future and the atmospheric forcing for a displacement event is completely absent. Also, given the coupled La Niña and severely negative PDO and negative PMM, I seriously doubt the +PNA being shown for Thanksgiving week will have any staying power. All this may prove to be very problematic for those predicting a cold December…. 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Besides the +EPO issue, we now have consensus on a strong SPV for the foreseeable future and the atmospheric forcing for a displacement event is completely absent. Also, given the coupled La Niña and severely negative PDO and negative PMM, I seriously doubt the +PNA being shown for Thanksgiving week will have any staying power. All this may prove to be very problematic for those predicting a cold December…. 

We may continue to get -NAO -AO intervals as long as the troposphere remains uncoupled from the SPV.

 

 

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