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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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The next pattern shift looking likely to occur next weekend (Weekend of 18/19th).

A little more on this now…

As I mentioned a few days ago, we will be transitioning to a new pattern late this week into next weekend. This pattern will continue a -PNA, and will introduce a neutral to - EPO/AO/NAO.

At face value, this ‘should’ bring more cold and snow opportunities across more of the sub-forum. Obviously any particular threat within this new pattern will rely on how much of a dip that the EPO/AO/NAO is taking at any particular time.


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A little more on this now…

As I mentioned a few days ago, we will be transitioning to a new pattern late this week into next weekend. This pattern will continue a -PNA, and will introduce a neutral to - EPO/AO/NAO.

At face value, this ‘should’ bring more cold and snow opportunities across more of the sub-forum. Obviously any particular threat within this new pattern will rely on how much of a dip that the EPO/AO/NAO is taking at any particular time.


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‘Should’ is the key point here, by the way.

You want to see how it could still go wrong, even in a more favorable teleconnection pattern? Check out the new Euro weeklies control run.


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MKX mentions 55 MPH gusts possible Wed. night in my point forecast. We're not even close to the expected corridor of highest winds, either. @madwx @DanLarsen34 @notsoencrypted

I'm actually considering a drive to Iowa Wednesday afternoon to chase synoptic wind, lol. Although that would make the drive home...interesting.

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51 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

MKX mentions 55 MPH gusts possible Wed. night in my point forecast. We're not even close to the expected corridor of highest winds, either. @madwx @DanLarsen34 @notsoencrypted

I'm actually considering a drive to Iowa Wednesday afternoon to chase synoptic wind, lol. Although that would make the drive home...interesting.

You can bag some tornadoes while you’re out there

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The next pattern shift looking likely to occur next weekend (Weekend of 18/19th).

Bump for a second time…

This pattern will be -PNA/-AO/-NAO, with a neutral to slightly -EPO.

Shaping up to be a gradient pattern, which could be good or bad depending on your location. Obviously MN/WI/MI should be a lock in that pattern, with areas further south having the ability to cash quite well in or swing and miss big (In terms of cold/snow).

In other words, good luck.


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