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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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Picked up 2" of wet snow last night. It was another gorgeous plastering snow but as soon as the snow stopped it began dripping off the trees. Wasn't as exciting as the 4" snow the other day, nor did it have as low of visibility. Much of the snowcover has melted with 40゚ today, about 1" left on average. Some 2" spots but also some bare spot.  Definitely not a bad start till the season, but certainly hoping Winter kicks into high gear for the whole sub soon. The scenic nature of wet snow is photogenic to say the least, but I'm definitely a powder man...and a reminder to all here to all, Winter is only just beginning.

 

Props to my mom for giving me the idea about my baby pine tree lol.

FB_IMG_1638309102519.jpg

FB_IMG_1638309107883.jpg

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Picked up 2" of wet snow last night. It was another gorgeous plastering snow but as soon as the snow stopped it began dripping off the trees. Wasn't as exciting as the 4" snow the other day, nor did it have as low of visibility. Much of the snowcover has melted with 40゚ today, about 1" left on average. Some 2" spots but also some bare spot.  Definitely not a bad start till the season, but certainly hoping Winter kicks into high gear for the whole sub soon. The scenic nature of wet snow is photogenic to say the least, but I'm definitely a powder man...and a reminder to all here to all, Winter is only just beginning.

 

Props to my mom for giving me the idea about my baby pine tree lol.

FB_IMG_1638309102519.jpg

FB_IMG_1638309107883.jpg

What kind of pine? Super cute

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Red pine. Got it from up north. As if I didn't have enough trees in my backyard already lol.

Wow, that'll be stunning one day. I long to have a forest for a backyard one day, though maintenance might be a lot. Trees are so crazy... how something half-buried by a few inches of snow today might be over a hundred feet tall in a couple decades

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9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Wow, that'll be stunning one day. I long to have a forest for a backyard one day, though maintenance might be a lot. Trees are so crazy... how something half-buried by a few inches of snow today might be over a hundred feet tall in a couple decades

 Yup! In this picture from last night. On the left hand side is a Norway spruce, white pine, and Birch. Then I have a huge Fur tree of some kind. To the right of that you see an autumn blaze Maple. Out of shot of the picture are two young trees, a balsam fir and a spruce.  To the right of the walkway you see a young baby balsam Fir and to the left is the red pine pictured above.

FB_IMG_1638310932742.jpg

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Yup! In this picture from last night. On the left hand side is a Norway spruce, white pine, and Birch. Then I have a huge Fur tree of some kind. To the right of that you see an autumn blaze Maple. Out of shot of the picture are two young trees, a balsam fir and a spruce.  To the right of the walkway you see a young baby balsam Fir and to the left is the red pine pictured above.

FB_IMG_1638310932742.jpg

Damn that really is a lot. That'll be crazy to see in like twenty years, an absolute inner sanctum of a back yard. I bet that maple is absolutely beautiful in the fall

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I miss the medium range pattern discussions - where did all of those folks go?

There’s not much to discuss right now.

The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start).


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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


There’s not much to discuss right now.

The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start).


.

Just the fact that you acknowledged next week's storm -thread the needle or not- made my heart flutter

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2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


There’s not much to discuss right now.

The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start).


.

Ahh the elusive -EPO. Seldom seen but read about in books

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6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


There’s not much to discuss right now.

The pattern has been and will continue to be only favorable for portions of MN/WI/MI, through mid-month. The only exception appears to be the storm potential centered around next Tuesday. A dip to a brief -EPO this weekend with a PV lobe briefly moving into Canada, coupled with the trough moving into the West in a favorable fashion via the -PNA, could lead to a thread the needle type widespread potential then. But outside of that, things still look DOA and more mild for most areas (Minus the areas I mentioned at the start).


.

Was told the -PNA was gonna be rockin’

Not your best call 

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Can any other weather office top this?

LOT: "  
A 135+ KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ALL  
THE WAY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A 150+ KT MAXIMUM MOVING  
FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY  
MORNING. AS THAT JET MAX TRANSLATES, IT WILL SEND A VERY LOW   
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL WAVE TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND, MORE   
NOTEWORTHY, INCREASE A LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC  
(F-GEN) CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE TODAY HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF AN  
INCREASING SIGNAL OF ENOUGH SATURATION WITH THIS FOR QPF CLIPPING  
AT LEAST THE FAR NORTHERN CHICAGO METRO. WHILE THE OVERLAPPING   
SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE REMAINS BETTER FOR NORTH OF THE STATE LINE AND   
STILL FAIRLY LARGE SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY,   
THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A HIGH-RESOLUTION SIGNAL TO FURTHER INCREASE   
POPS FOR LAKE AND MCHENRY COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN ADJACENT   
AREAS. THE MAIN TIMING LOOKS TO BE ~2-7 A.M.  
  
DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM, GFS, RAP, AND HRRR   
(IRREGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY SHOW PRECIPITATION) DO SHOW   
MARGINALLY WARM ENOUGH PROFILES FOR MELTING ALOFT. FURTHER BELOW,   
THE PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE ALSO MARGINAL, AND SOME  
DEPENDENCY ON EVENING TRENDS AS NOTED EARLIER. SO RATES OF ANY  
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE KEY IN CHANGEOVER AND IMPACTS, AND   
THAT WILL BE TIED TO ENOUGH WELL-ALIGNED, NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV   
(INSTABILITY) ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ABOVE THE F-GEN.  
IN GENERAL THE MODELS DO SHOW THAT, SO FEEL THAT IF THERE IS AN   
ESTABLISHED F-GEN BAND INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, IT LIKELY WILL   
TURN PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO SNOW. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, SOME   
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS INCLUDING ON   
ROADS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR TO IMPACTING LEVELS STILL   
REMAINS ON THE LESS LIKELY SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM OF OUTCOMES. THE   
EVENING SHIFT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT THOUGH TO SEE IF TRENDS   
SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF IMPACTS. "

 

this is the discussion for a snow shower.

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On 12/2/2021 at 8:54 AM, Baum said:

he's been for awhile. Pops in periodically, starts a big snow thread, screws us, and than moves on.

How I roll.

Been an insane stretch of warmth out here the last several weeks. 70s and golf but ready for snow. 
 

I should start a thread for the next weekend cutter potential but Mr -PNA Joey might kill me 

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