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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
  • 2 weeks later...

In the "what the" and "where did this come from?" category:

"GIVEN THE ABOVE CONCERNS FOR A POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL BAND OF SNOW  
DURING THE AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR INTO, OR VERY CLOSE TO THE CHICAGO  
METRO AREA, WE HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL, THE  
BAND OF SNOW LOOKS TO ONLY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, SO TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE  
OVERLY HIGH, BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOW RATES, WE   
COULD SEE SOME LOCAL AREAS PICKING UP AN INCH OR TWO OUT OF THIS.   
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, THEN HOVERING   
AROUND, OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS AS A  
DECENT RATE COULD ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES   
AND OVERPASS, SO THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS LATER TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA IF THIS MATERIALIZES. THE SNOW MAY MIX  
WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE IT ENDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CHICAGO  
METRO AREA AS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD  
INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID  
TO LATE MONDAY EVENING. "

 

I have to say LOT has the best AFD's these days. They can do 3 paragraphs on the potential of a snowshower.

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

GFS has a decent clipper for the lower lakes late weekend. High ratio fluff.  The usual weak until it blossoms along the east coast. It always amazes me when energy can look so weak around the lakes, then boom turns into a respectable storm for the coast.

Going to re-live the Dec 2010 nightmare, are we??

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3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

GFS has a decent clipper for the lower lakes late weekend. High ratio fluff.  The usual weak until it blossoms along the east coast. It always amazes me when energy can look so weak around the lakes, then boom turns into a respectable storm for the coast.

Really tho, nobody's been getting buried in the CONUS, so if the Euro wants to put 6-8" here with the next couple weak NW flow clippers. Well, I may just be inclined to let it. Heck an inch or two this time of year would set the spirit of the season. Took me til Dec 29th last winter to see that amount. 

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This thread has gone dry and lonely lately but some serious changes goin on that look mighty cold and interesting for December.  Would be nice if the trough of interest shifted about 500 miles to the west but I';; take the cold and wintery feel vs. the torch that was rearing it's head previously.  

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Guest chiTownSnow
20 hours ago, vortex said:

If no one has seen this from Tom’s FB. 
 

 

E410CED2-3D21-4457-9278-8AA3B4FB3E77.jpeg

Great post by Skilling.  In my opinion this is this is true forecasting l, which we see a little of these days.

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Unless you live in MN/WI/MI/Canada, there should be significant concern/pause that this upcoming pattern will be a miss.

The introduction of a -PNA will will bring an active pattern, but the NAO/AO will be of no help. Have to hope that the EPO can dip from time it time to help out, which is possible, but hard to bank on given the tendencies so far.

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