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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Are you thinking the 60-70mph gusts forecasts for BDL are overdone?

Going with the GFS?

Yeeeah, winds gusting that high seems a bit excessive at that location, for this storm's azimuth. 

As it approaches from the ESE toward SE zones ...they are naked to sky with still relatively elevated SSTs offering little or no inversion protection and the lower eddy tumbling probably mixes momentum down more proficiently and all that... 

But out that way, the storm approaches actually excites more NE pull of stabler central NE air. Probably there is a semblance of coastal boundary along or near west of a Willamantic CT- ~ ASH NH ...  and west of there you have more pedestrian gusts ( 45ers .....maybe 52), which can kick the power off - no doubt. But the bigger hassle with wind issues likely is SE of said line.

There are other models though - not sure what they are all getting at but the idea of the SE approach appeared overnight to be rather unanimously agreed upon - just a matter of idiosyncratic detailing with pressure depth and wind banding but the consensus was apparent -

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's what I'm thinking..  I'll be at work but I'm sure I'll come home to no power.. we get a gust over 30 and it seems like we go out 

Unless you have an accurate anemometer, we'll never know....if trees fall over when you get 35mph gusts, then that means they fall over from sub-wind advisory criteria.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Going with the GFS?

Yeeeah, winds gusting that high seems a bit excessive at that location, for this storm's azimuth. 

As it approaches from the ESE toward SE zones ...they are naked to sky with still relatively elevated SSTs offering little or no inversion protection and the lower eddy tumbling probably mixes momentum down more proficiently and all that... 

But out that way, the storm approaches actually excites more NE pull of stabler central NE air. Probably there is a semblance of coastal boundary along or near west of a Willamantic CT- ~ ASH NH ...  and west of there you have more pedestrian gusts ( 45ers .....maybe 52), which can kick the power off - no doubt. But the bigger hassle with wind issues likely is SE of said line.

There are other models though - not sure what they are all getting at but the idea of the SE approach appeared overnight to be rather unanimously agreed upon - just a matter of idiosyncratic detailing with pressure depth and wind banding but the consensus was apparent -

I'm not sure where some forecasts are getting their 60mph gusts in the interior from but I don't see it along and nw of 84. SE of there towards IJD and GON, sure. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And Ineedawindadvisory would be berate BOS for not issuing one. 

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

What’s your forecast for peak gusts ORH down to here and Ginx?

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

ORH will be a good gauge....they are further east and exposed on NE winds, so they are going to be on the higher end of anything in the interior.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH will be a good gauge....they are further east and exposed on NE winds, so they are going to be on the higher end of anything in the interior.

Heh...the Prudential - Blue HIll - ORH AP axis of 1K evil

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A friend of mine is flying into Boston from Jacksonville (flight has already been delayed a couple of hours) and apparently she heard the pilot say “It’s going to be bad” regarding the flight. Yikes. I hope that wasn’t over the PA

Edit: came on right before takeoff..WTH

 

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56 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Interior weenies want big wind so bad, but it's where wind goes to die.

It'll be pretty breezy, but the core of the LLJ is much further east and the colder sfc temps will allow for less mixing than coastal locales. Of course the innie weenies will be abusing the Beaufort scale and report 60mph estimated gusts as a few rotted oak branches come down.

I think a lot of the interior is likely to do better when the CAA kicks in Wed and erodes the inversion, winds go north.

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