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October 2021


Stormlover74
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On 10/15/2020 at 1:31 PM, SnoSki14 said:

We're really feeling the AGW effects now. 

It seems as though 2015/2016 was a tipping point with the mega Nino. I think every winter from this point on will be warm/wet or warm/dry.

Snow will be unlikely but not impossible as years like 2016/2017 could still happen. 

However this year will likely be another 2011/2012 style winter.

 

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

You know I'm right though.

Ill take my chances and bet against you. Lol

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, February 2015 was our only top 10 coldest winter month since 2010. But there have been 9 top 10 warmest winter months since 2010.  Funny how the 14° warmer February 2016 went below 0° but 2015 couldn’t. 
 

 

February 2015 was brutal riding the back of a garbage truck starting at 4am...it got below zero here, I remember mine and my co-workers boots were frozen that they sounded like tap dance shoes every step

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3 minutes ago, nyrangers1022 said:

February 2015 was brutal riding the back of a garbage truck starting at 4am...it got below zero here, I remember mine and my co-workers boots were frozen that they sounded like tap dance shoes every step

was crazy-big pieces of LI sound frozen-haven't seen it since and hadn't really seen it before (going back to 1990 when I came here)

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Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cool days. Nights will be mainly in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Warmer air will likely return by mid-week. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend.

Out West, Bismarck reached 75°. That was the 153rd 70° or above day, which tied the record set in 2016. Boston is still awaiting its first temperature in the 40s. The previous latest first such occurrence was October 13, 2018.

The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +19.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.732 today.

On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.966 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.417 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.7° (3.8° above normal).

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the only 70s winter that had impressive snowstorms by recent standards was 77-78. The 70s was the last time we saw a top 10 coldest winter in our area. Now its frequent top 10 or top 20 warmest winters.

 

Warmest winters NY climate division 4

200112 - 200202 39.3°F 126 5.8°F
201512 - 201602 39.3°F 126 5.8°F
201112 - 201202 38.7°F 124 5.2°F
201612 - 201702 37.8°F 123 4.3°F
193112 - 193202 37.7°F 122 4.2°F
199712 - 199802 37.7°F 122 4.2°F
201912 - 202002 37.6°F 120 4.1°F
199012 - 199102 36.5°F 119 3.0°F
199812 - 199902 36.4°F 118 2.9°F
193612 - 193702 36.3°F 117 2.8°F
199612 - 199702 36.1°F 116 2.6°F
194812 - 194902 35.9°F 115 2.4°F
195212 - 195302 35.8°F 114 2.3°F
201212 - 201302 35.8°F 114 2.3°F
193212 - 193302 35.6°F 112 2.1°F
200512 - 200602 35.5°F 111 2.0°F
199412 - 199502 35.4°F 110 1.9°F
198212 - 198302 35.3°F 109 1.8°F
200612 - 200702 35.3°F 109 1.8°F
197412 - 197502 35.2°F 107 1.7°F
195312 - 195402 35.1°F 106 1.6°F


 

Coldest winters

 

191712 - 191802 23.4°F 1 -10.1°F
190312 - 190402 24.2°F 2 -9.3°F
190412 - 190502 24.3°F 3 -9.2°F
191912 - 192002 25.4°F 4 -8.1°F
193512 - 193602 26.8°F 5 -6.7°F
193312 - 193402 27.0°F 6 -6.5°F
197612 - 197702 27.3°F 7 -6.2°F
190612 - 190702 27.4°F 8 -6.1°F
194712 - 194802 27.4°F 8 -6.1°F
192212 - 192302 27.8°F 10 -5.7°F
191112 - 191202 28.1°F 11 -5.4°F
196212 - 196302 28.1°F 11 -5.4°F
197712 - 197802 28.2°F 13 -5.3°F
190012 - 190102 28.4°F 14 -5.1°F
189812 - 189902 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F
194412 - 194502 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F
195812 - 195902 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F
190112 - 190202 28.6°F 18 -4.9°F
193912 - 194002 28.7°F 19 -4.8°F
191012 - 191102 28.8°F 20 -4.7°F
196012 - 196102 28.8°F 20 -4.7°F
196912 - 197002 29.0°F 22 -4.5°F
191612 - 191702 29.2°F 23 -4.3°F
199312 - 199402 29.2°F 23 -4.3°F
190912 - 191002 29.4°F 25 -4.1°F
189612 - 189702 29.5°F 26 -4.0°F
193412 - 193502 29.6°F 27 -3.9°F

 

 

 

Thanks do you find it interesting how our biggest snowstorms have shifted from February to January too?

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, February 2015 was our only top 10 coldest winter month since 2010. But there have been 9 top 10 warmest winter months since 2010.  Funny how the 14° warmer February 2016 went below 0° but 2015 couldn’t. 
 

 

February 2015 reminds me of January 2004, neither went below 0.  It's just really hard to go below 0.  JFK hasn't gone below 0 since January 1985 which surprises me, I know for sure I went below zero in January 1994 on the south shore of western Nassau, -3 as a matter of fact.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 60 degs.(54/67), +4.

Month to date is  65.3[+4.9].       Could be 63.7[+4.2] by the 25th.

Heavy rain gone for the 29th.       A late 70 reading still possible.

Only reached 62 here yesterday as sun shower hit around 2:15pm.

Today: 59-62,winds w. to nw., gusty, cloudy.

50*(80%RH) here at 6am.       52* at 9am.       57* at Noon.     60* at 3pm.      Reached 61* at 4pm.       55* at 6pm.

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Newark finally made it to 49°. This was the latest first 40s of the season by 5 days. The other records were in the last few years with the delayed falls. Boston is getting close at 50° to their latest 40s. NYC made 2nd latest.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164
1973 05-19 (1973) 42 10-11 (1973) 49 144
2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146
2002 05-23 (2002) 45 10-09 (2002) 48 138
2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150
1988 05-12 (1988) 48 10-05 (1988) 48 145
1964 06-04 (1964) 48 10-05 (1964) 46 122


 

 

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Morning thoughts…

This morning, the temperature fell below 50° for the first time this season in Central Park. That is the second latest first occurrence on record. Boston is still waiting for its first 40s of the season. The old record was October 13, 2008. 

It will partly to mostly sunny and cool today. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 63°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.6°; 15-Year: 64.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.2°; 15-Year: 66.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.4°; 15-Year: 67.0° 

Tomorrow will be another autumn-like day with readings mainly topping out in the lower 60s.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies should be interesting later as the GEFS is showing possible coupling with the strat warming.  But we will have to see where the potential blocking sets up. If it’s  more south based, then it wouldn’t be too cool like we saw last winter.
 

 

We will have to see if it actually downwells into the lower stratosphere and troposphere, last week the models weren’t showing that happening. Also, HM just pointed this fact out: 

 

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51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah I felt like we got an extra month of summer this year

That’s really the new normal. I’m sure you have seen me talk about by sea ice theory. It just takes the Arctic take longer to cool when you need to time to create ice. 
Today is great! I love this weather when I get hot working I just shed the jacket. 

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s really the new normal. I’m sure you have seen me talk about by sea ice theory. It just takes the Arctic take longer to cool when you need to time to create ice. 
Today is great! I love this weather when I get hot working I just shed the jacket. 

yep-a later freeze/sea ice up north leads to warmer airmasses.   Also the great lakes are warmer which modifies cold air coming from the NW

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