doncat Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 79° high today...currently 58° with 0.25" of post frontal rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 10/16 EWR: 82 New Brnswck: 82 PHL: 82 TEB: 80 TTN: 80 BLM: 78 LGA: 77 ACY: 76 NTC: 76 JFK: 75 ISP: 74 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Picked up 0.34" of rain for the day yesterday. High for the day yesterday was 82 Current temp 55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Some additional showers are likely, especially before midnight. Behind the frontal passage responsible for the showers and earlier thunderstorms, readings will return to near normal levels tomorrow and Monday. Warmer air will likely return near the middle of next week. Newark reached 70° for the 170th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 2007 for the 4th most days on record. Newark also reached 80° for the 115th time this year. That is the 2nd highest number of such days. At 11:59 pm yesterday, Bismarck saw the temperature dip to 32° under clear skies and a calm wind. That is the latest first freeze on record for Bismarck. The old record was October 14, 2008. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. La Niña conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +28.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.416 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal). How close to the record for 70 and 80 degree days for Newark, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Gulf of Maine SSTs are the warmest on record for mid-October. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ Thought we would have more tropical activity with all this warmth- what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: How close to the record for 70 and 80 degree days for Newark, Don? 3 days for each record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: 3 days for each record. Thanks, JFK isn't close to any of their records are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 58degs.(51/65), or Normal. Month to date is 65.8[+5.2]. Could be 62.7[+3.5] by the 25th. Over the next 15 days, highs of just 50 or 72 will trade places. Little rain till the 28th? Only reached 72 briefly here yesterday near Noon, on strong southerly sea breeze. Today: 63-67, w. wind, variable skies. 53*(83%RH) here at 6am. 60* at Noon. 62* at 2pm, then a quick shower and T never went passed the 62. 56* at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 It appears the overall quiet weather we have been experiencing since the remnants of Ida may continue for the next several days. There are signs things may become active right at the tail end of the month. We'll see. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Fall like temps up here in Berks this AM, currently 45 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 46. Beautiful morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly to mostly sunny and noticeably cooler today. High temperatures will likely reach lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 66° Philadelphia: 65° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.0°; 15-Year: 64.8° Newark: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.7°; 15-Year: 67.4° Monday and Tuesday will be autumn-like days with readings mainly topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, JFK isn't close to any of their records are they? 70 or above: 5th place 75 or above: 1st with 126 days (old record: 124, 1971, 2001, and 2010) 80 or above: Tied for 12th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: The good news is that the West Coast needs the rain with the record Pacific Jet and one of the strongest -PDO patterns in years. Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 @donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 58 right now here in Brooklyn Beautiful morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 got down to 51 beauty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Definitely the strongest -PDO/-PMM since 2011 The Meteo-France seasonal shows what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies. https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Meteo-France seasonal shows what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies. https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter Will be the only thing that'll prevent a 11/12 type winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Will be the only thing that'll prevent a 11/12 type winter We all thought that at this time last year..Go back to the posts last November when it was in the 70's and no cold air in sight.Turned out to be a decent winter.It could be a brutally cold fall like 89 and turn out to be a crappy warm winter.Hard to lock in a pattern 2 months ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: We all thought that at this time last year..Go back to the posts last November when it was in the 70's and no cold air in sight.Turned out to be a decent winter.It could be a brutally cold fall like 89 and turn out to be a crappy warm winter.Hard to lock in a pattern 2 months ahead. A very warm winter is a lock but blocking could still create snowfall opportunities. I don't think we'll ever see a cold winter again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A very warm winter is a lock but blocking could still create snowfall opportunities. I don't think we'll ever see a cold winter again. Nothing is a lock 2 months away in weather. Long range forecasting is not a accuarate science.Even the long range forecasters who post on this board will tell you the same thing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 hour ago, binbisso said: @donsutherland1 in your post above you have Nino 1.2 at slightly positive right now however when I look at tropical tidbits ocean analysis it's showing Nino 1.2 at -.8. Am I reading it wrong or is there another site with more accurate analysis? Edit. Nino 1.2 has also been negative for the last 6 weeks on tropical tidbits site The new data from CPC comes out tomorrow. It should be negative at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yep, assuming that’s correct, it’s showing the same weird -NAO/-AO structure that we had in Dec and Jan last winter Yeah, last winter was the strongest -AO that was south based. So it was the warmest on record for such a low -AO reading. You can see the -AO pressing further south into the Northeast over time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 years ago a very negative AO ment very cold at the time...now it yields a snowstorm... Feb 1969 and Feb 2020 had the lowest AO number after a major storm...Dec 2009 had a snowstorm in progress and 2011 would get one ten days later...even March 2018 had major storms after the AO minimum... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 High of 82 yesterday then all the way down to 48. A very sunny and pleasant 62/48. Cooler the next 60 hours peaking Monday (10/18) night into Tuesday morning. First 40s for metro/ upper 30s for inland? We'll see. Roller coaster back up by Wed - Fri with mid 70s and perhaps a stray upper 70s (77078) in the warmer spots. Then the ride goes back down next weekend 10/23 and into the next week 10/24. Beyond that models hint at cut off ULL could pump heights and humidity by the end of the month, likely it will come with rain near the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: 3 days for each record. Don, can you post the list for EWR (top 10 years and # of days 70+ / 80(+)? Also, is that calendar year or just from June ? Assuming its the whole year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 49 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A very warm winter is a lock but blocking could still create snowfall opportunities. I don't think we'll ever see a cold winter again. Nothing is a lock … 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 17, 2021 Share Posted October 17, 2021 Some high clouds now but very nice out regardless. Holding out on the heat but may need it Mon and Tue mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now