doncat Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 80° high here today...record is 81°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 45 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: today felt like a legitimate beach day hey @MJO812 do cops get to wear shorts? Only some units Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 why? no one wants to turn on the heat right now lol, let it turn cold when it's time to snow I'm going to bed and have my air conditioner on. Would rather save on that electricity in October. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I don't want mid August weather in mid October. Good riddance to the crazy heat. I mean it's more like early September weather, which is ideal. Ideal is temps in the 70s for highs and 50s for lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will become mostly cloudy but remain unseasonably warm. Showers and thunderstorms are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 64.4°; 15-Year: 65.2° Newark: 30-Year: 65.9°; 15-Year: 67.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.1°; 15-Year: 67.9° Sunday and Monday will be autumn-like days with readings mainly topping out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Hopefully we get some strong storms for some solid rain. We are starting to flash to drought. Gone are the days of nice even precipitation distribution. Feast or famine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.(54/69), or +3. Month to date is 65.8[+5.0]. Could be 64.1[+4.3] by the 24th. Reached only 75 yesterday with seabreeze. Today: 73-76, wind s. to w., cloudy, rain{up to 0.5"} 6pm-Midnight. 67*(85%RH) here at 6am. 70*-71* from 9am-1pm. and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 65* RH 84% here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 10 hours ago, lee59 said: I just find it interesting that JFK would have an average January temperature colder than LaGuardia. It would be like Oceanside having a colder January average than say Oyster Bay. If it is radiational cooling then maybe the thermometer at JFK is in a more secluded area than LaGuardia, like in the heat island affect. JFK and LGA were nearly identical in January during the 1981-2010 climate normals period. But it changed during the new 1991-2020 climate normals. JFK is the only station in our area with not much of a January temperature increase for the new January climate normals. I doubt it’s UHI since LGA rose at exactly the same rate as HPN which is in a more rural part of our area near the CT border in Westchester. But the more interesting question is why did the average temperature at JFK hold steady while all the surrounding areas rose between +1.1 and +1.5°? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=81&location=NY Station…81-10….91-20…January increase EWR….31.6…32.8…+1.2 NYC….32.6...33.7…+1.1 LGA….32.9..34.4…+1.5 JFK….32.7….32.8…+0.1 ISP…..30.6…31.9…..+1.3 HPN…28.3…29.8….+1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html It could get a little rowdy later on. We’ll see what the next update has in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 72 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 In spite of the calendar and a breeze off the Long Island Sound, it felt like a late August morning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 This is another delayed fall. A top 3 warmest first half of fall around the area. Notice how many top 10s in the last several years. Even parts of Long Island averaged close to 70°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2021-10-15 71.0 0 2 1961-10-15 70.6 0 3 2005-10-15 70.2 0 4 1959-10-15 70.0 0 5 2017-10-15 69.9 0 6 2018-10-15 69.7 0 7 1990-10-15 69.1 0 8 2015-10-15 69.0 0 - 2007-10-15 69.0 0 - 1973-10-15 69.0 0 - 1971-10-15 69.0 0 9 1983-10-15 68.7 0 10 1970-10-15 68.6 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2005-10-15 69.0 1 2 2021-10-15 68.5 0 3 2018-10-15 68.0 0 - 2017-10-15 68.0 0 4 2015-10-15 67.8 0 5 2016-10-15 67.6 5 6 2007-10-15 66.5 0 7 2002-10-15 66.0 0 8 2011-10-15 65.7 0 - 2010-10-15 65.7 0 9 2020-10-15 65.6 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2018-10-15 68.1 0 2 2005-10-15 68.0 0 3 2021-10-15 67.9 0 - 2017-10-15 67.9 0 4 1990-10-15 66.8 0 5 2015-10-15 66.6 0 6 2011-10-15 66.4 0 7 2007-10-15 66.2 0 - 1983-10-15 66.2 0 8 1980-10-15 66.0 0 9 1971-10-15 65.6 0 10 1998-10-15 65.3 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Roller coaster trending overall nearer to normal beyond today's warmth. Clouds racing in and put a lid on 80s and most of the area will top out in the 70s before the front moves through with storms and much drier/cooler air in its wake. Taste of fall Sun (10/17) through Tue (10/19) much cooler and possible coolest of the season so far. By Tue pm and into Thu, heights and warmer than normal returns with gorgeous mid fall days bright sunshine and mid to perhaps a few stray upper 70s. Cooler again by later next week into next weekend (10/23). GFS looks long range stormy in the 10/24 period and ECM looks cooler. Looks like we het back into hungup cut off ULL towards the end of the month and depending where these ULL develop and close off will determine if we end on the warmer side overall. 10/15 (highs) EWR: 84 LGA: 83 New Brnswck: 82 BLM: 82 PHL: 82 TEB: 81 ACY: 80 TTN: 80 NYC: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Feels like summer morning out Jesus. 72/66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Numerous cities saw their warmest Oct 1-15 including: Akron, OH; Grand Rapids, MI; Milwaukee; Rockford, IL; and, Youngstown, OH. Baltimore (3rd), Chicago (2nd); Cleveland (2nd), Detroit (2nd), and Duluth (2nd) were very warm. Locally, Newark was tied for 3rd warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 12 hours ago, lee59 said: Looks like Monday many areas may stay in the 50s, about time. What areas? I’m not seeing that at all. Maybe in New England. We will be 65+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 Could see our first 40s tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, psv88 said: Feels like summer morning out Jesus. 72/66 at least there is a breeze...something you don't usually get on a summer morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: What areas? I’m not seeing that at all. Maybe in New England. We will be 65+ This morning's GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: JFK and LGA were nearly identical in January during the 1981-2010 climate normals period. But it changed during the new 1991-2020 climate normals. JFK is the only station in our area with not much of a January temperature increase for the new January climate normals. I doubt it’s UHI since LGA rose at exactly the same rate as HPN which is in a more rural part of our area near the CT border in Westchester. But the more interesting question is why did the average temperature at JFK hold steady while all the surrounding areas rose between +1.1 and +1.5°? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/us-climate-normals/#dataset=normals-monthly&timeframe=81&location=NY Station…81-10….91-20…January increase EWR….31.6…32.8…+1.2 NYC….32.6...33.7…+1.1 LGA….32.9..34.4…+1.5 JFK….32.7….32.8…+0.1 ISP…..30.6…31.9…..+1.3 HPN…28.3…29.8….+1.5 My stats were from 2000-2021. That would mean LGA actually fell .3 degrees from the 1991-2020 period. JFk went up .2 in the same time frames. Islip also fell in the 2000-2021 time frame compared to 1990-2020 by some .4 degrees. Central Park fell .3 also. Newark stayed about the same. Sounds like the 1990s were very mild January. Station 2000-2021 1990-2020 JFK 33 32.8 LGA 34.1 34.4 ISP 31.5 31.9 EWR 32.8 32.8 NYC 33.4 33.7 I understand my stats are not a 30 yr time frame. I got them off the NWS site and they listed the 2000-2021 time frame. Interesting that JFK is the only station of the immediate metro area that rose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 35 minutes ago, SnowDemon said: This morning's GFS. Those are not the forecasted highs… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: Those are not the forecasted highs… I mean, the NWS is even predicting of 63 at Newark and 59 at White Plains. So its definitely possible, if not likely, that many in the area will stay in the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowDemon said: I mean, the NWS is even predicting of 63 at Newark. So its definitely possible, if not likely, that many in the area will stay in the 50s. If could see Putnam north, Fairfield north, Sussex county staying in the 50. But most of the area will stay in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: If could see Putnam north, Fairfield north, Sussex county staying in the 50. But most of the area will stay in the 60s. Well, perhaps. But this is not what you were claiming initially. And forecasts and models show that it could stay in the 50s in additional areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 High of 61 here for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 16, 2021 Share Posted October 16, 2021 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: If could see Putnam north, Fairfield north, Sussex county staying in the 50. But most of the area will stay in the 60s. Highs look around 60 depending on clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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