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Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
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21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s a decades long  debate 

Not really. It’s called having some humanity. It’s one thing to be fascinated by extreme weather. We all are. But to actually be disappointed if it doesn’t happen, to me, is just somehow not ok .

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     Interesting to see whether SPC will add a 10% TOR contour in the upcoming day 2 outlook.     There is probably just enough uncertainty in the exact area to draw a 10 to make them wait until tomorrow to better define a higher threat area, but the setup as currently progged may support greater than a 5% TOR outlook.     If you're looking for TORs, you can't ask for much more in this setup than what's currently shown:    a dry slot keeping us dry through a big chunk of Wednesday, allowing surface heating to maximize instability ahead of strong forcing and strengthening wind fields at the right time of day.

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5 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Interesting to see whether SPC will add a 10% TOR contour in the upcoming day 2 outlook.     There is probably just enough uncertainty in the exact area to draw a 10 to make them wait until tomorrow to better define a higher threat area, but the setup as currently progged may support greater than a 5% TOR outlook.     If you're looking for TORs, you can't ask for much more in this setup than what's currently shown:    a dry slot keeping us dry through a big chunk of Wednesday, allowing surface heating to maximize instability ahead of strong forcing and strengthening wind fields at the right time of day.

They did it!

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44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not really. It’s called having some humanity. It’s one thing to be fascinated by extreme weather. We all are. But to actually be disappointed if it doesn’t happen, to me, is just somehow not ok .

The psychology doesn't make sense, but it is possible to feel both. It's like...you want no one to get hurt. But yet...you want that extreme weather too. Like when we got Snowmageddon...someone died walking in the street due to unplowed sidewalks. Did ya want that to happen? Of course not! It's awful. But were we happy with the legendary snow? Absolutely. Same with hurricanes...awesome to see powerful ones, yet awful to see the results.

So the humanity feels for the victims of such and wishes no harm. But yet...something in the brain also wants the extremes for excitement too. So when that part of the brain/psyche doesn't get the extreme weather, there's disappointment. And yet you're happy nobody gets hurt. If I had a magic button I'd make it so you could have extreme yet no damage, lol

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

But I was told it would be cloudy and dry?

It really looks like this is gonna be a central PA event. The severe is a little intriguing.. but these things tend to shine WRT flooding... it is disappointing that we cant cash in on another Agnes type event

 

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1 minute ago, Kleimax said:

Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs

It's all contingent on us breaking out into sunshine to build surface instability. We don't do that well in these parts.

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Regardless of EJs' poo-pooing everything, make sure yall have a plan in place in case the tornado threat pans out

Of course, it could all fail and we see low stratus and off/on rain all day. But... just in case. 

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2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs

Flooding is a better bet depending on where the rain sets up, but 10% TOR is nothing to scoff at. This is a high end remnant setup. 

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8 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Why are people focusing on the rain and flooding when we’re in a 10% TOR zone? Being socked in with rain all day will lessen our chances for TORs

               But that's not what the guidance shows.     There is a lot of consensus that much of the area along and southeast of an IAD-FDK line will stay mostly dry tomorrow until the convection rolls in during the mid to late afternoon.

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4 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

^^ and more recently than Snowmageddon, we talk about severe, but only a few weeks ago lightning struck a house in Frederick County and a firefighter was killed.   

And that's terrible...see that's what you hate to hear. Not as tragic, but still kinda bad...last month lighting struck the steeple of the church where I just became Music Director...fire coulda burned down the whole church had it not been for someone, Praise God, being there at the right time (and it being next to a fire station). So in that instance, it's like...yeah ya love the weather but when bad things happen? Ya hate that! It's a strange psychology...

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12 minutes ago, high risk said:

               But that's not what the guidance shows.     There is a lot of consensus that much of the area along and southeast of an IAD-FDK line will stay mostly dry tomorrow until the convection rolls in during the mid to late afternoon.

But a coupe inches of rain over 12 hours is so exciting

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13 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

But a coupe inches of rain over 12 hours is so exciting

                   I'm WAY more worried about the TOR potential in the DC-Baltimore corridor than I am about flooding.     That said, I think it's worth noting that while the major flooding potential is going to be in PA/WV/western MD tomorrow, there will absolutely be potential for FLASH flooding in the DC-Baltimore region.     It's going to be a roughly 6 hour period late tomorrow with several bands of convection (with potential for TORs) that will have torrential rainfall.    I can certainly see some localized 3-4" totals that will create major problems for the evening rush hour.      Things will be worse if the warm advection rain later tonight ends up overperforming, which is always a possibility in this type of environment.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we are talking system wide threats, I’d say a major flooding threat would be more of a threat to people’s safety. Especially in mountainous terrain where flash flooding is gonna be a real concern. 

OlswyFy.png

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16 minutes ago, H2O said:

I've done the couple inches of rain in one hour.  It wasn't fun.

With TS Lee, I had somewhere in the 7" range in like three hours, after there having been 3" or something earlier in the day. Just SE of me around Belvoir, they had it even worse. It was kind of exciting, but the bailing out of the basement and the complete water damage in one bathroom and partial in one ceiling just sucked.

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