Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,988
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dankles
    Newest Member
    Dankles
    Joined

September 2021


wdrag
 Share

Recommended Posts

Down to 53 last night after a gorgeous day in the upper 70s high of 79.   This coming long weekend looks mostly very nice!  More of the same today with many upper 70s and low 80s.  Saturday a bit warmer and into the low 80s before warm front Sunday may keep us in clouds much of the day with some rain later that evening.  Monday (9/6 Holiday) looks to clear and warm to the low or mid 80s a huge difference from the chilly Memorial day weekend 3 months ago.

 

Ride the near normal trough till next Thu (9/9) before warming up by next weekend (9/10).  Week of 9/13 looks to offer the next chance of 90s for the hot spots and some late season strong plus departures.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, uncle W said:

Thanks, very interesting. I have looked at old newspapers on line a few times before, but I found some different features in this one. A lot of advertising was composed of large letters made up of smaller letters, like a huge E that was made up of two rows or columns of small Es. That seemed to be a short-lived fad that I didn't find in 1895 (went ahead to see how they reported on the May-June 1895 heat wave, it was quite extensively covererd).

Naturally I went back in the files to the March 1888 blizzard. This was also fascinating. The storm hit on the night of March 11-12, which was a Sunday night. Now this paper as you probably noticed was usually four pages of eight columns of type, but on Sundays it extended to sixteen pages of four columns. Anyway, on the Saturday March 10th they had a weather forecast (from Washington via telegraph) saying that Sunday would see increasing cloud and a rain-snow mix by evening. That was correct. The Sunday paper repeated that as the forecast which seemed odd to me (later on I figured out why, the storm had hit already to the southwest and destroyed the telegraph line so there was no new forecast). The Monday edition (this paper appeared after 3 p.m. because they had hourly temperatures in their little weather section that ended at 3 p.m.) had extensive coverage of the blizzard. In those days they called them "western blizzards" because they were more typical of the "west" which began in Ohio and extended into the plains states (the Midwest to us now). What we now call the west was on another planet I think. Anyway, the coverage on the 12th spoke extensively about stalled trains,  stranded trains, people gone missing between morning and lunch time, etc etc, and two feet of snow with drifts "to the second storey of houses" on side streets. A few trees had come down and winds estimated as high as 60 mph. A row of houses had all lost their roofs during the storm. (it makes me suspect our historical weather map recreations of the 1888 blizzard might be a bit underdone). They also mentioned a stronger wind on Feb 27, 1886 with a much less productive snowstorm (a few inches, that wind was apparently NNW in direction because it helpfully blew straight down the length of the Brooklyn Bridge and damage to it was avoided).

Back in 1888, the news was all on page three into parts of page four of this paper, most of first two pages and part of page four was advertising, classified ads and minor news or gossip. The main news was all on page three or the back page. And news varied from the death of the German emperor and reports from city hall, Albany and Washington, to a disclaimer from some dude who had met "Miss Harrison" in Dayton Ohio but it wasn't planned and there was no affair.  (the paragraph didn't mention why this information appeared or who the dude was other than his name which I suppose meant he was prominent enough to attract speculation, probably a politician or a minister perhaps) ... Also Mrs Jones had taken Mr Jones to court, he wasn't giving her enough money for shopping and made her do the boarders' laundry, and he threw a pail of hot ashes at her, but the judge said there was still hope of reconciliation and advised them to settle their differences. 

The next several days of news coverage were mostly about the recovery from the blizzard which was about three or four days, they fixed the telephone and telegraph lines within two or three days, they got the snow off the train tracks but out on Long Island some trains were still stranded in three feet of level snow and bigger drifts. Food was running scarce because it all used to come into the city on trains. A slow melt started around the 15th and I got the impression the sun was clearing the snow faster than the armies of men sent out to clear the business streets and the train stations etc. They stopped talking about it by about the 17th, and their weather section resumed a forecast eventually when the connection was restored. I don't know if there would have been an accurate forecast on the Sunday for the overnight storm and Monday's outcome or not, but I noticed there was an accurate forecast of a cold wave approaching later in that month.

By 1895 they had figured out that news should be on page one. The coverage of the heat wave was fairly extensive, people were passing out on the streets from heat prostration and a police parade had to be cut short. By then, there was a New York City weather bureau and a guy you could go and interview about the weather, and he gave this paper a forecast with a lot of accurate details for the days ahead (on May 31st, which by the publication time had turned out to be hotter than the previous record from 1880 at 95 F) including a thunderstorm on the evening of June 1st and a slight cooldown followed by more heat. He had nothing to go by except weather reports from the rest of the continent, and probably a very sparse network west of the plains states too. He did mention to the reporter that the only cold place in America was Cheyenne WY at that time (it was 32 degrees there). 

I think I will dive back in and see what they have to say in the February 1899 snowstorm and cold wave. And wondering how the Jones couple made out with their reconciliation. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So when the topic started, anticipated a rather warm first week of Sept - overall it will not be.  TC moistures were anticipated and both are going to occur, however in a huge reverse order with IDA almost 5 days sooner than originally expected and Noras leftover PW about 4-5 days later than expected.

Worthy I think to pay attention to developments after the 17th in the western Atlantic to Gulf Coast. Maybe this is premature so I'll follow with probably no GMEX TC related thread post for at least a week.

 

Finally, at the behest of WPC-NWS,  they prefer all of us on the same page and not naming these TC's up here as remnant (despite IDA being half to 65% of what it was striking Louisiana).  Any future TC posts from myself will somehow migrate over to Post TC or TD.  That will take that issue off the table as a hindrance to messaging, if indeed it was significant. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So when the topic started, anticipated a rather warm first week of Sept - overall it will not be.  TC moistures were anticipated and both are going to occur, however in a huge reverse order with IDA almost 5 days sooner than originally expected and Noras leftover PW about 4-5 days later than expected.

Worthy I think to pay attention to developments after the 17th in the western Atlantic to Gulf Coast. Maybe this is premature so I'll follow with probably no GMEX TC related thread post for at least a week.

 

Finally, at the behest of WPC-NWS,  they prefer all of us on the same page and not naming these TC's up here as remnant (despite IDA being half to 65% of what it was striking Louisiana).  Any future TC posts from myself will somehow migrate over to Post TC or TD.  That will take that issue off the table as a hindrance to messaging, if indeed it was significant. 

Talking rather semantics here in all reality. There have been extreme events over the years that were the result of "remnants". The simple fact is that there are clearly many attempts at play to paint the picture that the NWS was negligent and delinquent when it comes to this most recent event. As I've said before: I'm always the first to jump on the NWS for a blown forecast. That said...of all the "blown" forecasts over the years in the northeastern quadrant of the US - I don't recall any that resulted in any loss of life or widespread damage. Most of the major events were forecast pretty well in advance. 

With this previous event, the wording was clear, well out in advance of the threat, and accurate. The NWS is by no means to blame for the loss of life in this historic event. If people tell you that 5-10" of rain is coming in a short period of time, along with tornados and waterspouts - pay some attention to the developments that day. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Thanks, very interesting. I have looked at old newspapers on line a few times before, but I found some different features in this one. A lot of advertising was composed of large letters made up of smaller letters, like a huge E that was made up of two rows or columns of small Es. That seemed to be a short-lived fad that I didn't find in 1895 (went ahead to see how they reported on the May-June 1895 heat wave, it was quite extensively covererd).

Naturally I went back in the files to the March 1888 blizzard. This was also fascinating. The storm hit on the night of March 11-12, which was a Sunday night. Now this paper as you probably noticed was usually four pages of eight columns of type, but on Sundays it extended to sixteen pages of four columns. Anyway, on the Saturday March 10th they had a weather forecast (from Washington via telegraph) saying that Sunday would see increasing cloud and a rain-snow mix by evening. That was correct. The Sunday paper repeated that as the forecast which seemed odd to me (later on I figured out why, the storm had hit already to the southwest and destroyed the telegraph line so there was no new forecast). The Monday edition (this paper appeared after 3 p.m. because they had hourly temperatures in their little weather section that ended at 3 p.m.) had extensive coverage of the blizzard. In those days they called them "western blizzards" because they were more typical of the "west" which began in Ohio and extended into the plains states (the Midwest to us now). What we now call the west was on another planet I think. Anyway, the coverage on the 12th spoke extensively about stalled trains,  stranded trains, people gone missing between morning and lunch time, etc etc, and two feet of snow with drifts "to the second storey of houses" on side streets. A few trees had come down and winds estimated as high as 60 mph. A row of houses had all lost their roofs during the storm. (it makes me suspect our historical weather map recreations of the 1888 blizzard might be a bit underdone). They also mentioned a stronger wind on Feb 27, 1886 with a much less productive snowstorm (a few inches, that wind was apparently NNW in direction because it helpfully blew straight down the length of the Brooklyn Bridge and damage to it was avoided).

Back in 1888, the news was all on page three into parts of page four of this paper, most of first two pages and part of page four was advertising, classified ads and minor news or gossip. The main news was all on page three or the back page. And news varied from the death of the German emperor and reports from city hall, Albany and Washington, to a disclaimer from some dude who had met "Miss Harrison" in Dayton Ohio but it wasn't planned and there was no affair.  (the paragraph didn't mention why this information appeared or who the dude was other than his name which I suppose meant he was prominent enough to attract speculation, probably a politician or a minister perhaps) ... Also Mrs Jones had taken Mr Jones to court, he wasn't giving her enough money for shopping and made her do the boarders' laundry, and he threw a pail of hot ashes at her, but the judge said there was still hope of reconciliation and advised them to settle their differences. 

The next several days of news coverage were mostly about the recovery from the blizzard which was about three or four days, they fixed the telephone and telegraph lines within two or three days, they got the snow off the train tracks but out on Long Island some trains were still stranded in three feet of level snow and bigger drifts. Food was running scarce because it all used to come into the city on trains. A slow melt started around the 15th and I got the impression the sun was clearing the snow faster than the armies of men sent out to clear the business streets and the train stations etc. They stopped talking about it by about the 17th, and their weather section resumed a forecast eventually when the connection was restored. I don't know if there would have been an accurate forecast on the Sunday for the overnight storm and Monday's outcome or not, but I noticed there was an accurate forecast of a cold wave approaching later in that month.

By 1895 they had figured out that news should be on page one. The coverage of the heat wave was fairly extensive, people were passing out on the streets from heat prostration and a police parade had to be cut short. By then, there was a New York City weather bureau and a guy you could go and interview about the weather, and he gave this paper a forecast with a lot of accurate details for the days ahead (on May 31st, which by the publication time had turned out to be hotter than the previous record from 1880 at 95 F) including a thunderstorm on the evening of June 1st and a slight cooldown followed by more heat. He had nothing to go by except weather reports from the rest of the continent, and probably a very sparse network west of the plains states too. He did mention to the reporter that the only cold place in America was Cheyenne WY at that time (it was 32 degrees there). 

I think I will dive back in and see what they have to say in the February 1899 snowstorm and cold wave. And wondering how the Jones couple made out with their reconciliation. 

Thank you Roger Smith,  for this exceptionally informative posting.

Your insight about the way newspapers were laid out makes one recognize that their current format maybe should again change, now that the web handles the breaking news. 

Imho, the WSJ, the Wash Post and the NY Times have long adapted and view the front page as an editorial  page. But without the ads, it is only the view of the 0.01%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Abundant sunshine and cool temperatures will continue through the weekend. Warmer weather could return next week. Parts of the region might also have a shot at one or two light rainfall events next week. To date, Central Park has received 49.16" of rain, which would rank 2021 as the 39th wettest year on record if no additional rain fell. Records go back to 1869.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +9.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.744 today.

On September 1 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.896 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.182 (RMM).

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As part of an ongoing research project where I have analyzed various aspects of the NYC temp and precip data sets, I have noted the daily precip record values and so far 2021 now holds six of them. That already places 2021 into a large tied group for third place, behind the leader 1983 which holds nine, and second place 1913 with eight. 

There was one tied daily value, that being June 12 where 1903 tied 1910. Those are both worth 0.5 for those two years.

Going back to the start of data in 1869, this is the number of daily records held by each year

(add 0.5 to 1903 and 1910 marked with asterisks)

Decade __ 0 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _ 5 _ 6 _ 7 _ 8 _ 9

1860s ____ ____________ (no data) _________ 2

1870s ____ 0 _ 4 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 6 _ 1

1880s ____ 1 __3 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6

1890s ____ 1 __ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 1 _ 2

1900s ____ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3*_ 0 _ 0_ 2 _ 1 _ 5 _ 5

1910s _____2*_ 6 _ 3 _ 8 _ 4 _ 4_ 2 _ 4 _ 0 _ 3

1920s _____2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 __2 _ 3 _ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3

1930s ____ 3 _ 0 _ 2 _ 3 _ 4 _ 0 _ 4 _ 3 _ 1 _ 1

1940s ____ 5 _ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 3 _ 1 __ 1 __1 _ 2 _ 0

1950s ____ 2 _ 0 _ 1 _ 2 _ 2 _ 2 __ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0

1960s ____ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _ 0 _ 2 __1 _ 3 _ 1 

1970s ____ 2 _ 2 _ 6 _ 4 _ 4 _ 3 _ 2 _ 4 _ 4 _ 4

1980s ____ 4 _ 3 _ 2 _ 9 _ 6 _ 3 _ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 6 

1990s ____ 3 _ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 3 _ 6 _ 3 _ 1 _ 4 _ 2

2000s ____ 2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _ 0

2010s ____ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 5 _ 2 _ 2 _ 2 __ 1 __0

2020s ____ 2 _ 6

__________________________________

So 2021 is currently tied with 1878, 1889, 1911, 1972, 1984, 1989, and 1995 for third.

Will update this if 2021 moves further up the standings. 

__________________________________

Also 2021 has had 49.16" of precip so far (incl Sep 1-2) and that is already ahead of all but 37 of the 152 years completed so far. If just 20.84" more falls and the year ends on 70" it would pass all but two of those -- the wettest three are 1983 (80.56"), 2011 (72.81"), 1972 (67.03").

It would only take modestly above normal precip for the rest of the year for 2021 to move into that zone and perhaps challenge either 1972 or 2011 -- 1983 would take another 31.40" which is an average of 7.85" a month (counting Sept 4-30 as a month). That seems a bit out of reach to me but you never know. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(67/83), or +4.

GFS changes again, and has clouds only for the rest of Holiday.

GFS has 13 of the next 16 days at AN.      Any >80 is AN from now on.          Reached 77* at 4pm.

Reached 78* here yesterday.

64*(75%RH) here at 6am, thin overcast, breaks.          72* by Noon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.1°; 15-Year: 80.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.6°; 15-Year: 81.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.6°

A slow warmup could commence next week.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC has had the wettest June 1st to September 3rd by a wide margin. 6 out of the top 10 wettest years have all occurred since 2003. It’s also interesting that so many new snowfall records have happened  over this same period. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 3
Missing Count
1 2021-09-03 31.26 0
2 2011-09-03 25.23 0
3 1927-09-03 23.89 0
4 1975-09-03 22.40 0
5 1989-09-03 22.39 0
6 2006-09-03 22.14 0
7 2003-09-03 21.54 0
8 1928-09-03 21.41 0
9 2009-09-03 21.38 0
10 2007-09-03 20.62 0
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC has had the wettest June 1st to September 3rd by a wide margin. 6 out of the top 10 wettest years have all occurred since 2003. It’s also interesting that so many new snowfall records have happened  over this same period. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jun 1 to Sep 3
Missing Count
1 2021-09-03 31.26 0
2 2011-09-03 25.23 0
3 1927-09-03 23.89 0
4 1975-09-03 22.40 0
5 1989-09-03 22.39 0
6 2006-09-03 22.14 0
7 2003-09-03 21.54 0
8 1928-09-03 21.41 0
9 2009-09-03 21.38 0
10 2007-09-03 20.62 0

Good morning BW. I remember a senior Industrial Engineer going over line graphs with me 35 years ago. He said if your evaluating a performance and the graph is moving In a steady up or down direction then the operation is still controllable. If however you see significant spikes up and down continuing and grouping then your operation is in danger and needs intervention before a possible collapse. Your June to September/snowfall paragraph brought that memory right to the surface. As always ….

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low of 54 now up to a gorgeous 68 degrees.  Crickets and ragweed in full force.  Partly cloudy today and temps near or low 80s (with enough sunshine)  Sunday more cloudy with morning rain showers and from the overnight.  It may clear later in the day but warm in the near 80 and dewpoints rising.  Monday (9/6 Holiday) and Tue (9/7) warmer low / mid 80s before front and associated storms on Wed (9/8).  Thu (9/9) - Sat (9/11) cooler and near normal before ridge builds east and offers the next shot at heat 90s in the 9/12 and into the following week 9/14 week period.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Low of 54 now up to a gorgeous 68 degrees.  Crickets and ragweed in full force.  Partly cloudy today and temps near or low 80s (with enough sunshine)  Sunday more cloudy with morning rain showers and from the overnight.  It may clear later in the day but warm in the near 80 and dewpoints rising.  Monday (9/6 Holiday) and Tue (9/7) warmer low / mid 80s before front and associated storms on Wed (9/8).  Thu (9/9) - Sat (9/11) cooler and near normal before ridge builds east and offers the next shot at heat 90s in the 9/12 and into the following week 9/14 week period.

Cicadas are still around too.

How do you get rid of ragweed? This stuff is awful

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Cicadas are still around too.

How do you get rid of ragweed? This stuff is awful

 

Have to wait for the 1st frost, whenever that occurs. My step-dad has an allergy to it, every late August into September he was miserable when we vacationed in New Hampshire/Vermont and couldn’t wait for the first cold shot that brought a frost with it. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tranquil and mainly dry weather will continue through much of next week. Some light rain is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, but the recent guidance has become even less impressed with the precipitation potential.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature some much above normal temperatures.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +17.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.343 today.

On September 2 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.801 (RMM). The September 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.894 (RMM).

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Have to wait for the 1st frost, whenever that occurs. My step-dad has an allergy to it, every late August into September he was miserable when we vacationed in New Hampshire/Vermont and couldn’t wait for the fiery cold shot that brought a frost with it. 

I think the colorful birds I like to photograph spread this stuff around

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/82), or +3.       Basically the next 10 days are near Normal or AN.     Week 3 looks BN.   ***The GEFS/GFS could not be more different late.

Larry gives Bermuda a scare Thursday PM, but misses by about 150mi.       It is just Cat. 1 then.     We get minor? swells here on Thurs./Fri.  and a 700mi. miss.

68*(87%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds, some blue.     67* at 7am.     70* at 9am.

Reached 77* yesterday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like warming w respect to normal begins to normal... whether its continuous or interrupted by the next trough midweek, unknown but overall September looks to be heading to the warmer than normal side of the ledger by mid month.

Continue to look to the period after the 17th for opportunity for possibly more significant TC moisture. For now, am seeing the midweek tropical moisture in the se USA just passing se of us. So Larry's swells-rip current impact is the apparent biggest TC related action this week for our asubforum, with Nora's moisture contribution noticeable today-tonight but small.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...