September 2021

[MJO812]

Beautiful outside 

58

I'm still wearing shorts lol

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, RippleEffect said:

How did the winters end up those years for Newark if you don’t mind telling me?

well 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters of all time and holds the record for the lowest minimum ever recorded in Central Park with a -15 on Feb 9th...there was a blizzard after Christmas and almost 30" of snow in February...1944-45 was very cold with average snow...1999-00 had one cold and snowy month starting mid January...otherwise terrible...1975-76 was cold but with below average snowfall...all four winters were la nina or a weak negative...2021 fits right in...we most likely will not see anything like a 1933-34 winter...1999-00 was a second year la nina but stronger than this year....1975-76 was a second year la nina but stronger...the average for the four of these winters would be an average winter...

[bluewave]

Five of our stations have already reached 50” of precipitation for the year.

 

Data for January 1, 2021 through September 29, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	54.25
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	51.96
NJ	NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	51.05
NJ	RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	50.37
NJ	WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE	CoCoRaHS	50.27

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah alot of times the models will show 7-10 days with little rain, but look at yesterday-that snuck up on us within 48 hrs

I view (unfortunately) media is less about news now, and more about 'stories-drama'.  Weather information and giving the viewer-listener what they need to make informed decisions is lacking. We (the presenter) boil it down too what we think is of essence, omitting some of the alternate possibilities, especially beyond 5 days.

06z GEFS is showing impressive positive anomalies of qpf for a 10 day period beginning the 3rd in the northeast.  I can still see southward slippage, depending on northern stream into NNE and the location of the upper low between the Apps and Miss River.  I do 'think' we're going to see some flooding rains (a couple of overlapped decent events) somewhere between the Ohio Valley and mid-north Atlantic. 

 

Edit add: also this seems to be without any tropical cyclone contribution (first two weeks Oct).

[dmillz25]

3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

56 here.

Hit a low of 53 here

[bluewave]

Long range ensembles seem to be better at seeing the ridges. It usually takes a while longer for the individual shortwaves that produce  the precipitation to show up. But we often see upper lows eventually getting stuck somewhere under strong blocks to our north.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range ensembles seem to be better at seeing the ridges. It usually takes a while longer for the individual shortwaves that produce  the precipitation to show up. But we often see upper lows eventually getting stuck somewhere under strong blocks to our north.

Maybe a home brew storm to watch next week

[uncle W]

here's a statistical tidbit for September...todays low temp in Central Park was 54...lowest so far this month...if it stands it will be with these years that had a September minimum of 54 since 1960...

1960...

1982...

2002...

2010...

2016...

2017...

some great analogs for snow in there...

[winterwx21]

70 degrees here, and it feels great with the dewpoint in the low 40s. Perfect Fall day.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

70 degrees here, and it feels great with the dewpoint in the low 40s. Perfect Fall day.

It could stay like this till Thanksgiving

[JustinRP37]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful outside 

58

I'm still wearing shorts lol

[SACRUS]

You can see the ULL closing off and heading south and by the looks of it, tomorrow looks mostly cloudy vs some more optimistic forecasts,

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

September 29th is the 2nd latest in the fall that HPN has dropped below 50°. It’s currently at 49°. All the top 5 latest dates have been since 2015.

Weather Conditions For:

White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY. KHPN 

29 Sep 6:56 am

49

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
2018	06-12 (2018)	49	10-12 (2018)	47	121
2017	06-09 (2017)	47	09-29 (2017)	47	111
2002	06-08 (2002)	48	09-29 (2002)	48	112
1970	05-30 (1970)	44	09-29 (1970)	42	121
1968	05-28 (1968)	46	09-29 (1968)	49	123
2005	05-25 (2005)	46	09-28 (2005)	46	125
2015	06-02 (2015)	48	09-27 (2015)	47	116
1980	06-14 (1980)	47	09-27 (1980)	44	104
2016	05-21 (2016)	48	09-25 (2016)	44	126

Think low was 48

[Intensewind002]

In Lindenhurst, It seems I’ll finish the month with exactly 5.6” of rain. Low was 53 last night, the coldest of the month so far. We hit 39 for the low here in Albany by comparison

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Think low was 48

Yeah, the low was 48° at HPN. The first 40s and 30s have been getting later faster than the first freeze. My guess is that this is due to the September and October warming faster than November. So the first freeze date is closer to the colder weather arriving in November during recent years. Then as the warming has picked up in December, the first low below 20° since 2010  got pushed back by 12 days compared to the 1952-1980 climate normals period. 

HPN average first 40s 2010-2020…..9-20……1952-1980…..9-9

………………………….30s  2010-2020….10-17…….1952-1980…..10-06

………………………….32   2010-2020….10-30…….1952-1980…..10-26

………………………….10s  2010-2020    12-17……..1952-1980…..12-05

[SnoSki14]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the low was 48° at HPN. The first 40s and 30s have been getting later faster than the first freeze. My guess is that this is due to the September and October warming faster than November. So the first freeze date is closer to the colder weather arriving in November during recent years. Then as the warming has picked up in December, the first low below 20° since 2010  got pushed back by 12 days compared to the 1952-1980 climate normals period. 

HPN average first 40s 2010-2020…..9-20……1952-1980…..9-9

………………………….30s  2010-2020….10-17…….1952-1980…..10-06

………………………….32   2010-2020….10-30…….1952-1980…..10-26

………………………….10s  2010-2020    12-17……..1952-1980…..12-05

That's how you get these powerful 15-20F freezes that kill everything in one swoop.

[lee59]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

In Lindenhurst, It seems I’ll finish the month with exactly 5.6” of rain. Low was 53 last night, the coldest of the month so far. We hit 39 for the low here in Albany by comparison

Yea Long Island missed out on some of the heavy rain but still got plenty. I had about 8.5 inches in July, 7 inches in August and 7.5 this month.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's how you get these powerful 15-20F freezes that kill everything in one swoop.

Yeah, the November 2019 record early hard freeze following the October record warmth was a recent example of this. The record low 20s in November following the record mid 90s in October just flattened the late blooming fall plants. So November has been our month that we can still get record cold. Areas to our north that used to get late September freezes like Albany had them pushed back to mid-Ocrober. Since NYC has had the average first freeze November for a long time, the freeze date change isn’t as dramatic.

First freeze dates

Albany…1951-1980….9-29…..2010-2020….10-16

NYC…….1951-1980….11-11…..2010-2020….11-18

[lee59]

Brookhaven Labs on Long Island already down to 54 degrees, 61 here.

[donsutherland1]

Tonight will provide a genuine autumn preview. Temperatures will likely fall into the lower 50s in New York City, Newark, and perhaps Philadelphia. Outside the cities, temperatures could fall well into the 40s. Westhampton could see the mercury dip below 40°. Afterward, it will be variably cloudy with the mercury rising into the middle and upper 60s in much of the region. Newark's record-breaking 122-day streak with maximum temperatures of 70° or above will be severely challenged. Most of the modeling shows a high of 68°-70° there.

2021 is virtually certain to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Friday will be another relatively cool day. But warmer temperatures will return and the chance of precipitation will increase as the calendar presses deeper into the first week of October.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October (a general 2°-4° above normal).

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +30.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.308 today.

On September 27 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.346 (RMM). The September 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.087 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, lee59 said:

Brookhaven Labs on Long Island already down to 54 degrees, 61 here.

it's going to be in the 30s tomorrow night on Long Island, too bad it's going to be October 1 not September 30

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will start off with overcast skies in parts of the region. Those clouds will yield to sunshine. Elsewhere, it will be partly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 70°

Philadelphia: 70°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 70.6°; 15-Year: 71.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 72.2°; 15-Year: 73.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7°

Dry but cool weather will continue through tomorrow.

[lee59]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's going to be in the 30s tomorrow night on Long Island, too bad it's going to be October 1 not September 30

 

Yea, projected lows last night were higher than expected thanks to overcast skies. 

[CIK62]

The last day of September is averaging 64degs.(59/69), or -1.

Month to date is  70.7[+1.3].      September should end at 70.1[+0.9]

60*(58%RH) here at 6am.     59* at 7am.          Still 59* at 9am.        62* at Noon.        65* at 2pm.     Reached 67* at 4pm.     62* at 9pm.

Today: 65-70, nw. wind, p. cloudy.

Coming rain reduced on GFS and T's way up.      Week 1 Oct.   68[60/77], +4.   EURO still has days of rain.

[bluewave]

The lack of any real cold air for September shows up with monthly minimum temperatures in the top 3 warmest. New records were set at EWR, BDR, and ISP. This reflects how fast the September temperatures have been rising. 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	54	1
2	2015	52	0
3	2018	51	0
4	2017	49	0
-	2011	49	0
-	2004	49	0
-	2002	49	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	51	0
2	2021	48	1
-	2008	48	0
-	2002	48	0
-	1999	48	2
-	1968	48	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	55	1
2	2015	54	0
3	2018	53	0
-	2002	53	0
-	1994	53	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1910	57	0
2	2015	56	0
-	1921	56	0
3	2021	54	1
-	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2016	54	0
-	2010	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1982	54	0
-	1960	54	0
-	1891	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	59	0
2	2018	57	0
-	2016	57	0
3	2021	56	1
-	2015	56	0
-	2012	56	0
-	2002	56	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	56	0
2	2021	54	1
-	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1994	54	0
-	1968	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	52	1
-	2018	52	0
2	2017	50	0
-	2015	50	0
-	2002	50	0
-	1977	50	0

[LoboLeader1]

52 here this AM

[SACRUS]

Down to 51 last night.  Much less clouds than i was expecting.  Cooler train 36 more hours before we warm up this weekend.  We will push 80 in the warmer spots Sat, if enough sun on Sunday (10/3) it will be low 80s (EWR record is 85).  More clouds and Mon (10/4) as upper low pushes west and hung up flow overall.  Should see more persistent onshore to more humid S/SE flow by the middle/end of next week Thu (10/7) - Sat (10/9). Beyond there ridge builds into the east and warmer mid month.  Not sure we see more 80s in the period 10/10 - 10/20 in the  warm spots but chances may be increasing.

[psv88]

No lows in the 40s this month

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of any real cold air for September shows up with monthly minimum temperatures in the top 3 warmest. New records were set at EWR, BDR, and ISP. This reflects how fast the September temperatures have been rising. 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	54	1
2	2015	52	0
3	2018	51	0
4	2017	49	0
-	2011	49	0
-	2004	49	0
-	2002	49	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	51	0
2	2021	48	1
-	2008	48	0
-	2002	48	0
-	1999	48	2
-	1968	48	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	55	1
2	2015	54	0
3	2018	53	0
-	2002	53	0
-	1994	53	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1910	57	0
2	2015	56	0
-	1921	56	0
3	2021	54	1
-	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2016	54	0
-	2010	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1982	54	0
-	1960	54	0
-	1891	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	59	0
2	2018	57	0
-	2016	57	0
3	2021	56	1
-	2015	56	0
-	2012	56	0
-	2002	56	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	56	0
2	2021	54	1
-	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1994	54	0
-	1968	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	52	1
-	2018	52	0
2	2017	50	0
-	2015	50	0
-	2002	50	0
-	1977	50	0

Just glad that the yucky 70 dew point crap is gone.  I think most would be happy with temps in the 70s during the day with 50s at night for the next 4-5 weeks and most of all low humidity (dew points 50s or lower.)

I dont really like cold weather in October or November, I like a slow transition.

[SACRUS]

So far EWR only up to 69 so the 70(+) streak is in jeopardy.  Mostly cloudy now too.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif