LibertyBell Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: can we get a sunshine percentage forecast? I am sick and tired of cloudy days "warm" temperatures or not. Amount of sunshine is more important for those of us who like to enjoy being outdoors yay the sun is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 Very dark here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: looks like highs in the 60s later next week? 40s for lows? The Euro has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s behind the cold front near the coast later next week. Still has a piece of the WAR hanging on. So the coldest departures remain to our west with the blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2021 Share Posted September 17, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s behind the cold front near the coast later next week. Still has a piece of the WAR hanging on. So the coldest departures remain to our west with the blocking. Hopefully we’re finally taking steps down in the daily temps. Also hopefully the end of the humidity-early this week was putrid. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Readings will likely reach the lower and middle 80s across much of the region. However the warmth will likely be fairly short-lived. Overnight, the guidance has taken a dramatic turn away from a warm close to September. Instead, early indications of a trough and cooler than normal readings have grown in magnitude. If the guidance holds up, it is close to a toss-up whether 2021 will become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +14.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.279 today. On September 15 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.852 (RMM). The September 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.022 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s behind the cold front near the coast later next week. Still has a piece of the WAR hanging on. So the coldest departures remain to our west with the blocking. that looks like a pattern where a TC if it was in the western atlantic would come right at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Readings will likely reach the lower and middle 80s across much of the region. However the warmth will likely be fairly short-lived. Overnight, the guidance has taken a dramatic turn away from a warm close to September. Instead, early indications of a trough and cooler than normal readings have grown in magnitude. If the guidance holds up, it is close to a toss-up whether 2021 will become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +14.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.279 today. On September 15 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.852 (RMM). The September 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.022 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal). what exactly caused this dramatic reversal? Was it something unforeseen and unforecastable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what exactly caused this dramatic reversal? Was it something unforeseen and unforecastable? Larry almost certainly enhanced the blocking. But at this time of year, long-range modeling can change dramatically. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Larry almost certainly enhanced the blocking. But at this time of year, long-range modeling can change dramatically. I think Larry is the furthest north a TC has ever made landfall and then it brought snow to Greenland which is amazing. I think we'll all end up moving north, I have a feeling Greenland is going to turn into a resort and NYC will be underwater by then anyway. Might not even have to wait that long, looks like people have been leaving NYC in droves even before it goes underwater 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Any truth to the rumors that NYC would be wiped out if that volcano goes off in the canary islands? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Any truth to the rumors that NYC would be wiped out if that volcano goes off in the canary islands? sounds like a reasonable scenario to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 69degs.(62/77), or +1. Month to date is 72.0[+0.5]. Should be about 71.1[+0.7] by the 26th. After today, both GFS&Ens. struggle to reach 80 again in the next 15. Reached 78 here yesterday. Quick shower at 6:30pm. 82-84 today, p. cloudy, e. wind. 69*(93%RH), hazy sky. 73* at 9am. 78* at Noon. 80* at 2pm. 83* at 3pm. 84* at 3:30pm. Reached 87* briefly, near 6pm. 80* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Since September has warmed so much, LGA only has a +1.4 departure through the 17th. So the departures don’t tell the whole story. In our warmer climate, +1.4 is all that is needed for a top 10 warmest first 17 days of September. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 17 Missing Count 1 1961-09-17 77.4 0 2 2015-09-17 77.2 0 3 2005-09-17 77.1 0 4 1947-09-17 76.7 0 5 2016-09-17 76.0 0 6 2018-09-17 75.3 0 7 1983-09-17 74.9 0 8 1971-09-17 74.7 0 9 2021-09-17 74.4 0 10 1957-09-17 74.3 0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 75.5°; 15-Year: 76.4° Newark: 30-Year: 77.0°; 15-Year: 78.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.2°; 15-Year: 79.1° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Models really slowing down the cold front later in the week due to the UL closing off over the Great Lakes. So heavy convection potential where the front stalls out. Probably several days of closer to normal temperatures behind the front. New run Old run 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Another perfect summers day on the beach. Odette really showed up. Head high and glassy with light NW wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: did anyone else notice that the fireflies quit early this year? i seem to remember a few years back they were swarming well into October due to warm moist weather. i might've thought they'd do the same this year if you told me the weather ahead of time, but i haven't seen them in several weeks, well back into mid-August. I saw a handful on September 14th this year, which is the latest here since I started paying close attention about 10 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Models really slowing down the cold front later in the week due to the UL closing off over the Great Lakes. So heavy convection potential where the front stalls out. Probably several days of closer to normal temperatures behind the front. 12z continues the trend and soaks us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 12z continues the trend and soaks us after the storm real fall weather begins summer is over! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, nycwinter said: after the storm real fall weather begins summer is over! six more weeks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 42 minutes ago, forkyfork said: six more weeks It will prob be 70 on Christmas 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: 12z continues the trend and soaks us It will make 3 months in a row with several local stations going 10”+ Monthly Data for September 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.92 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.26 NJ HARRISON COOP 9.25 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.23 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 8.79 Monthly Data for August 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 12.41 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.57 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 11.29 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10.73 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.54 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.34 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 10.32 NJ HARRISON COOP 10.24 Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWAClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 14.76 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 12.54 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 12.06 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.43 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 11.09 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT WESTPORT 2.5 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.01 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.98 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.75 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.71 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.68 CT STAMFORD 4.2 S CoCoRaHS 10.62 CT DURHAM 2.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.58 NY QUEENS 3.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.48 NJ LINDEN 2.2 NW CoCoRaHS 10.32 CT WEST HAVEN 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 10.29 CT REDDING 1.4 E CoCoRaHS 10.25 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.24 NY LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E CoCoRaHS 10.13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: hot today, caught me by surprise. strong sun too. did NBR hit 90? They just missed the record high of 90° by a few degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Bright sunshine was present at Robert Moses State Park. The waves were higher than usual on account of Odette, which is far offshore. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 The last weekend of astronomical summer began with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 80s across the New York City region. Tomorrow will be fair and somewhat cooler. The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of next week. Readings will mainly be in the 70s during the day and upper 50s and lower 60s at night. The recent guidance has taken a dramatic turn away from a warm close to September. Instead, early indications of a trough and cooler than normal readings have grown in magnitude. If the guidance holds up, it is close to a toss-up whether 2021 will become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +14.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.354 today. On September 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.826 (RMM). The September 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.851 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.2° (1.0° above normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 9/18 EWR: 88 PHL: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 BLM: 85 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 9/18 EWR: 88 PHL: 87 LGA: 86 JFK: 86 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 BLM: 85 ACY: 85 ISP: 84 NYC: 84 It felt even hotter than that. I was roasting more than most days mid summer. Glad better temps are coming even if there is some wetness coming with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 On 9/18/2021 at 4:07 AM, Will - Rutgers said: did anyone else notice that the fireflies quit early this year? i seem to remember a few years back they were swarming well into October due to warm moist weather. i might've thought they'd do the same this year if you told me the weather ahead of time, but i haven't seen them in several weeks, well back into mid-August. Maybe they have boom or bust years just like cicadas do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 6 hours ago, mattinpa said: It felt even hotter than that. I was roasting more than most days mid summer. Glad better temps are coming even if there is some wetness coming with them. well no wetness until well after the weekend at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 21 hours ago, bluewave said: Models really slowing down the cold front later in the week due to the UL closing off over the Great Lakes. So heavy convection potential where the front stalls out. Probably several days of closer to normal temperatures behind the front. New run Old run why does this happen so much?! I can understand one day of rain in a week, that's my limit but why is it every time it rains it rains for 3 days straight and we see no sun for half a week? you didn't see this stuff in the 90s, you saw actual summers with heat and sunshine not this crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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