Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

how was a storm like 1821 possible especially coming only five years after the year without a summer...the waters must have warmed pretty fast back then...

I would like to hear some eyewitness reports, although the ones I have seen show the surge was really high and the pressure near the center was really low even when it was going over Manhattan.  Do you have any windspeed reports, did any part of our area have 100+ gusts?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is a pretty crazy track

Hartford is going to see the center of the storm twice lol

 

[uncle W]

esther from 1961 had a very interesting track...

 

[uncle W]

Ginny in 1963 had a double loop...

 

[nycsnow]

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I loved that a lot more than the October 2011 snowstorm lol, this was a real snowstorm and all snow lol

 

Winter sucked 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the 1821 Hurricane if it happened again right on that track and maintained that intensity (which was greater than 1938) would be the ultimate storm.

 

Your making assumptions based off the lower Manhattan reports. 1821 just happened to have the perfect track for surge for Manhattan.  But it was less impactful for the region as a whole then Sandy

[doncat]

Updated totals for Henri... 5.75" from Saturday thru today....Going back to the 19th ( Thurs.) 6.79". .. W shore si.

[nyrangers1022]

4.64 in the Guage down the road from me from someone I worked with.   I'm scratching my head on that, never seemed it rained that much lol.  But I guess tropical systems drop a lot 

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

Ginny and Ester from the early 1960's were loopers...

Ginny and Ester sound like two old broads who would destroy you in bridge. 

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

Ginny and Ester sound like two old broads who would destroy you in bridge. 

Good evening g77. They would probably destroy me without bridge. As always …

[Nibor]

I wouldn't be surprised if a Cat 2/3 landfall in the North East happens sometime this decade. 

[SRRTA22]

Ivan 2004 had a crazy track too

 

[wxallannj]

Storm total 6.75"  at my station in Clifton!

 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, forkyfork said:

this is a pretty crazy track

Thankfully the wind didn’t materialize outside a small area in RI. If there was 70 mph wind in NYC with the 8” of rain the tree/power line damage would’ve been horrific. As bad as Isaias was wind wise it happened with less than 1” of rain east of NYC. In a way it’s a blessing for hurricanes up here. 

[Rjay]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Thankfully the wind didn’t materialize outside a small area in RI. If there was 70 mph wind in NYC with the 8” of rain the tree/power line damage would’ve been horrific. As bad as Isaias was wind wise it happened with less than 1” of rain east of NYC. In a way it’s a blessing for hurricanes up here. 

It's hard to get the rain and wind combo up in the northeast with tropical systems.  Most of the rain is on the west side and most of the wind is on the east.   With Irene I got 5" of rain and 60+mph gusts for hours.  

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

It's hard to get the rain and wind combo up in the northeast with tropical systems.  Most of the rain is on the west side and most of the wind is on the east.   With Irene I got 5" of rain and 60+mph gusts for hours.  

Same here. Irene had a lot of front end rain in Long Beach and the surge was pretty bad-most basements flooded but not first floors like Sandy. We had 60mph winds or so but tree damage wasn’t too bad. 3/2010 and Sandy eliminated essentially every big tree here. 

[lee59]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it was Cat 2 and strengthening, just another doesnt make sense, the sheer size of the storm gave it more energy than any other hurricane other than Katrina

SS scale doesn't describes hurricanes like this well

 

I believe it was a Cat 2 briefly on Oct. 29 but when it came ashore it was a Cat 1 with 80mph winds. Regardless, my point was if Sandy took the typical hurricane track south to north, the severe flooding would not have happened in the NY and NJ area.  That is what Sandy will be most remembered for. Being so large the energy was spread out with strong winds over  a huge area. 

[lee59]

Was down at Jones Beach tonight. I could see the over wash from Henri was substantial. Looks like the water went up to and under the boardwalk.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

Ginny in 1963 had a double loop...

 

was Ginny the one that made it snow in Maine?

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Same here. Irene had a lot of front end rain in Long Beach and the surge was pretty bad-most basements flooded but not first floors like Sandy. We had 60mph winds or so but tree damage wasn’t too bad. 3/2010 and Sandy eliminated essentially every big tree here. 

Imagine if Irene had been stronger down south it would've been stronger up here.

I think the strongest we can reasonably expect for a Hatteras Cane to be is 130 mph.....I wonder if Irene was that strong there how strong it would have been up here on that track and make it move quicker, like 40-50 mph

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

I wouldn't be surprised if a Cat 2/3 landfall in the North East happens sometime this decade. 

Cat 2 can happen once a decade, but Cat 3 are ultra rare up here.  It could happen with the aforementioned Irene track as long as the storm is really strong in NC and moves really quickly.  130 mph Hatteras Cane moving 40 mph on an Irene track could do it.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, guinness77 said:

Ginny and Ester sound like two old broads who would destroy you in bridge. 

Ginny was a big snowicane in Maine!

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your making assumptions based off the lower Manhattan reports. 1821 just happened to have the perfect track for surge for Manhattan.  But it was less impactful for the region as a whole then Sandy

Only because it came in at low tide right?  It hit Cape May as a Cat 4 and was a Cat 3 right up to NYC that's amazing

Low tide was the only reason why it wasn't a bigger deal than Sandy.

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.55" of rain for the day.

Three day final storm total 5.29"

[dmillz25]

9.07” total

[wdrag]

Quick post to confirm: I think Bluewave or maybe Don posted this.

ONLY two successive months for CP 10+" are March-April 1983??

Once I know that, i can set up a tiny challenge with no financial reward.

Thanks,

Walt

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Quick post to confirm: I think Bluewave or maybe Don posted this.

ONLY two successive months for CP 10+" are March-April 1983??

Once I know that, i can set up a tiny challenge with no financial reward.

Thanks,

Walt

That was the year of the broken rain gauge in NYC. So we may never really know the exact rainfall in 1983. While it was a very wet year, the NYC totals were significantly higher than surrounding stations.

https://www.nytimes.com/1983/12/31/nyregion/city-s-rain-83-record-is-in-doubt.html

The heavy rains that pounded New York City during 1983 may not have broken the annual rainfall record here, after all, the National Weather Service said yesterday. The only thing broken for certain, it said, was the official rain gauge in Central Park.

To no one's surprise, the Weather Service announced on Nov. 15 that the year's drenching rains in Manhattan had surpassed a record of 67.04 inches, set in 1972. As of early yesterday, additional rains were said to have brought the year's total to 80.56 inches.

But the Weather Service's data acquisition division in Garden City, L.I., suspected something was amiss because the Central Park readings were much higher than official measurements at Kennedy International, Newark International and La Guardia Airports.

So the gauge at Belvedere Castle in the park was taken apart. It was found to be leaky. A faulty weld apparently was allowing water to seep in the side and be measured with rain entering the calibrated opening.

No one knows how much rain fell in the park in 1983. But the Weather Service said that an official estimate based on nearby readings would be made and that ''it likely will be close to the record, either just above or just below.''

[wdrag]

Thank you very much!  So, then i should reconfirm CP has never recorded two successive months of 10+"?  

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thank you very much!  So, then i should reconfirm CP has never recorded two successive months of 10+"?  

I am not sure if they know which month the rain gauge broke  in 1983. Newark had two successive months of 10+ In March and April like was shown at NYC. So NYC could have done it if the malfunction occurred after April.

Monthly Total Precipitation for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1983	4.37	3.03	11.14	11.14	4.22	2.81	1.59	3.46	2.93	5.80	5.54	9.47	65.50

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1983	5.01	3.22	10.54	14.01	4.60	2.82	3.40	7.26	4.62	8.63	6.68	9.77	80.56