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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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I understand what you are saying, but huge rainmakers with marginally gusty winds aren't the enthusiasts cup of tea. Of course marine interests and flooding will enjoy this one

Marginally? Around the eyewall will be akin to a Midwest derecho for hours with a 3-6’ storm surge. This will definitely be a hell of a hit
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9 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I wonder if it will just be similar to last years tropical twisty twist that came onshore and lashed us with one whip of a single rain band, and some 30 mph gusts.

I don’t want to undersell or underestimate though 

You and Kevin are gonna get smoked with rain. We tried to tell him about the Messenger shuffle 

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wow keeps moving east….

I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: 

A turn toward the north-northwest and
a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring
the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between
18-24 h.  With the more eastward initial position, the forecast
track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast.
However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as
several of the guidance models are to the left of the official
forecast. 
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: 

A turn toward the north-northwest and
a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring
the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between
18-24 h.  With the more eastward initial position, the forecast
track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast.
However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as
several of the guidance models are to the left of the official
forecast. 

We are only talking 10 to 20 miles

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Just now, Whineminster said:

It's possible this thing misses us completely it seems 

Doubt it. If it heads more eastward than what I am projecting it to hit (I am projecting a Newport RI vicinity landfall, at about 70-75 mph sustained winds), I would think the heavier rain would replace the heavier winds in Massachusetts/Rhode Island.

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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop.

The rain is visibly organizing at the very least. I don’t think I’m in a very safe place because I’m IN the river but I’m not going to sleep until the storm is over and there’s a nice long urban hill with lots of side streets of which access is easy, it’s a 15 minute walk or 2 minute drive 

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9 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It's possible this thing misses us completely it seems 

The low is not going to go out to sea. It is moving due north right now, if it were going out to sea you would already see signs of the low slipping to the east, but that isn’t happening. An eye is forming which suggests the strength of the low is also increasing.

 

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop.

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
  • dendrite unpinned this topic

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