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August 2021 Discussion/Obs


George BM
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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

After spits and drizzle earlier, a steady rain has moved in here now.

temp is 69.

lol the GFS had damn near 90 here a few days ago when it went nuts with the 7 day run of mid-upper 90s. The Euro haters should maybe take a step back. :lol:

It’s not the model itself I hate, it’s the people freaking out over it saying it’s “the best model for everything” and that everything else sucks.

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2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

It’s not the model itself I hate, it’s the people freaking out over it saying it’s “the best model for everything” and that everything else sucks.

All global models struggle in the medium to long range to some degree, and more so when the synoptics are more complicated. I find the 'fandom' with model guidance to be completely hilarious.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Pretty compact low. There will probably be some 2"+ amounts not too far east of here, but if the latest mesos are correct, I may struggle to see much more than what I have now, which is just shy of a quarter inch.

Euro sucks. 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

75 degrees here today. Devastating heat wave, really.

High of 72 here early. Been upper 60s most of the day.

Highest forecast temp here is 89 through next Friday. I am sure the city will manage a few days of 93 or so, but not the widespread scorching 95-100 week the GFS was all giddy about a few days ago.

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48 minutes ago, frd said:

Euro sucks. 

To be fair everything jumped east/southeast with the heavy rain, even the mesos. The 12z 12km NAM had 1.5"+ here and now next to nothing at 18z. I cant see the 18z Euro, but I would guess it probably looks different than the 12z run.

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59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

To be fair everything jumped east/southeast with the heavy rain, even the mesos. The 12z 12km NAM had 1.5"+ here and now next to nothing at 18z. I cant see the 18z Euro, but I would guess it probably looks different than the 12z run.

It simply seems that even in the medium term it can not be trusted.  So many failed forecasts by the Euro and the EPS.   

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

It simply seems that even in the medium term it can not be trusted.  So many failed forecasts by the Euro and the EPS.   

Read my earlier post. What global model can be "trusted" in the medium-long range period? Lately I might take the ICON over the GFS or Euro.

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