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August 2021


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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is true. In fact I read somewhere you could squeeze the entire human population into Texas alone.

Everything you said about cities vs rural/suburbs is also true.

The fact people travel hours everyday just to get to & from work is insane and very bad for the environment.

The new Census data show urban population is growing rapidly in the US while rural pop continues to decline. We are an increasingly urban nation in terms of where people live. Southern and western cities are growing the most, some places with limited water supply as someone pointed out here earlier. But still NYC is now up to 8.8 million and Westchester County passed 1 million for the first time ever, thanks in part to Yonkers, now the 3rd largest city in NYS, passing Rochester 

Overall population growth is the slowest its been in a long time which isn't a good thing, but its trending much more toward cities. 

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing happens when I clicked on the link that you provided. But you can see how the weather station is hidden under the trees when fully leafed out. No other official weather observing station has this much dense tree cover so close to the thermometer. Prior to the 1990s, the tree growth was much more modest around the site. So the warm season highs weren’t that much different from LGA and EWR. 
 

914E3A37-E515-482F-B5AA-59B20C23BE13.thumb.jpeg.cfcc7c21075ab1bff7e320229fe3d48d.jpeg

2DC85865-F176-4F5B-A389-569367ADCB2A.jpeg.565d267bd213f7db71d84056acbfb2be.jpeg

 

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

Good afternoon BW. I never received a response from the NWS ASOS folks when I responded with the “ I am talking about CPK NYC.” I’m not surprised, silence can be so deafening. They seem to be professional politicians, well adept/versed at kicking the can down the road and weaving a roadmap reply that Rube Goldberg would love. Have a great weekend. As always ….

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good afternoon BW. I never received a response from the NWS ASOS folks when I responded with the “ I am talking about CPK NYC.” I’m not surprised, silence can be so deafening. They seem to be professional politicians, well adept/versed at kicking the can down the road and weaving a roadmap reply that Rube Goldberg would love. Have a great weekend. As always ….

Don’t feel so bad. This has been a well known issue for a long time. Since the NWS left Rockefeller Center in the early 90s, the quality of the Central Park weather observations has declined.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nothing happens when I clicked on the link that you provided. But you can see how the weather station is hidden under the trees when fully leafed out. No other official weather observing station has this much dense tree cover so close to the thermometer. Prior to the 1990s, the tree growth was much more modest around the site. So the warm season highs weren’t that much different from LGA and EWR. 
 

914E3A37-E515-482F-B5AA-59B20C23BE13.thumb.jpeg.cfcc7c21075ab1bff7e320229fe3d48d.jpeg

2DC85865-F176-4F5B-A389-569367ADCB2A.jpeg.565d267bd213f7db71d84056acbfb2be.jpeg

 

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

Maybe others were having the same problem and that is why no response. :)  Sorry about that, I am not a tech wizard so I'm not sure how to fix it. For some reason it opens for me so I thought all could see it. The picture you show is a good airial shot.

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July was Earth's hottest month on record
(Source:  The Hill, 8/13/21)

July 2021 was the planet’s hottest month ever recorded, according to data released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s numbers indicate the earth’s combined land and ocean-surface temperature was 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average of 60.4 degrees. The temperature was 0.02 degrees above the previous hottest month, July 2016, after 2019 and 2020 matched the 2016 record.

The Northern Hemisphere, meanwhile, saw an all-time high July land-surface-only temperature at 2.77 degrees above average. The previous record, July 2012, was 2.14 degrees above average.

Asia also saw its single hottest July on record, according to NOAA, while Europe tied its second-highest, July 2010.

Arctic sea ice coverage, meanwhile, was at its fourth-lowest level for July in the 43 years NOAA has kept records. July 2012, 2019 and 2020 were the only years Arctic sea ice was smaller. However, Antarctic sea ice saw its largest extent since 2015 and the overall eighth-highest extent on record.

“In this case, first place is the worst place to be,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said in a statement. “July is typically the world’s warmest month of the year, but July 2021 outdid itself as the hottest July and month ever recorded. This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe.”

Based on both the latest data and numbers from June, 2021 will likely end up one of the 10 warmest recorded years, according to NOAA, citing a projection from the National Centers for Environmental Information.

The data’s release comes days after a long-awaited report from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issued a dire warning on global temperatures. The report projected average global temperatures 1.5 degrees higher than the pre-industrial baseline by 2040, past the previously established point the U.N. agency said would result in major impacts on weather, biodiversity and food availability.

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Temperatures surged into the 90s across most of the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through August 13):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 21 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 40 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 19 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 10 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 9 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 28 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 20 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 5 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 7 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 20 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 14 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 31 (2020: 32 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 28 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 16 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 37 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 18 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 20 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

A cold front will move across the region tomorrow. It could trigger showers and thunderstorms. Sunday will turn cooler. At least the first half of next week will likely see near to somewhat below normal readings.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September.

The SOI was +3.34 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.008 today.

On August 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.408 (RMM). The August 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.962 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.2° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 81degs.(74/88), or +6.

Starting Tues., chances of rain are higher than the average 30% thru Sat. at least.     Models can not decide where the TS remnants are going however, so stand by for a Page 1 Replate.

Grace set to be stronger than Fred and on about the 22nd, be where Fred will be on the 16th.        Fred remnants end up in Ohio Valley in 5 days?

Summer to date is +0.20{74 Days}[75.3 to date]

77*(84%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.      80* by 9am.       82* at 10am.       84*(64%RH) by Noon.        88*(58%RH) by 2pm.        89* at 3pm.      91*(52%RH) at 4pm  HI = 98.     92*(50%RH) at 4:30pm.

Only reached 88 here yesterday.

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The strongest heat was west of the Hudson this summer. Newark is currently at the 8th warmest summer position. LGA is currently at the 11th warmest summer temperature. ISP is similar to the LGA ranking at 12 warmest. The much warmer climate allowed a place like ISP to still rank this high even with only a+1.6…June….-0.4…July….-0.7…August. Last summer was an east of the Hudson heat pattern with LGA and ISP top 3 warmest through August 13th and Newark in 6th place.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13
Missing Count
1 2010-08-13 79.5 0
2 1994-08-13 79.3 0
3 1993-08-13 79.1 0
4 2011-08-13 78.8 0
5 1988-08-13 78.2 0
6 2020-08-13 78.0 0
7 1999-08-13 77.9 0
8 2021-08-13 77.8 0
9 2005-08-13 77.7 0
10 1973-08-13 77.4 0

 

Time Series Summary for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13
Missing Count
1 2020-08-13 79.8 0
2 2010-08-13 79.7 0
3 1999-08-13 78.3 0
4 2016-08-13 78.1 0
5 2006-08-13 77.9 0
- 2005-08-13 77.9 0
- 1994-08-13 77.9 0
6 2019-08-13 77.5 0
- 2018-08-13 77.5 0
- 2012-08-13 77.5 0
- 2008-08-13 77.5 0
- 1966-08-13 77.5 0
7 2013-08-13 77.4 0
8 1952-08-13 77.2 0
9 1991-08-13 77.1 0
- 1949-08-13 77.1 0
10 2011-08-13 77.0 0
11 2021-08-13 76.9 0
- 2002-08-13 76.9 0
- 1995-08-13 76.9 0
- 1988-08-13 76.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 13
Missing Count
1 2010-08-13 75.2 0
- 1999-08-13 75.2 0
2 2020-08-13 74.8 0
3 2011-08-13 74.4 0
4 2019-08-13 74.1 0
5 2013-08-13 73.8 0
- 1994-08-13 73.8 0
6 2016-08-13 73.6 0
- 2008-08-13 73.6 0
7 2012-08-13 73.4 0
8 2006-08-13 73.3 0
- 1966-08-13 73.3 0
9 2005-08-13 73.2 0
10 2018-08-13 73.1 0
11 2014-08-13 73.0 0
- 1991-08-13 73.0 0
- 1988-08-13 73.0 0
12 2021-08-13 72.9 0
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