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Winter 2021-22


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1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

It's a longstanding tradition for New englanders to tell us how good our winters were when New England scored.  Started with 04-05

Like Ferris Bueller going back to school after his day off and telling the kid who had to go to school that they had equally good days because the second kid got out of second class period five minutes early. 

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4 hours ago, frd said:

Growing support for a deeper dive with the Arctic oscillation for late October. If it happens it will support the idea that November would feature a weaker than normal polar vortex. 

QBO continues to trend more negative as we head towards winter. 30 mb value for Sept is -16.56, down from -13.82 in August.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

QBO continues to trend more negative as we head towards winter. 30 mb value for Sept is -16.56, down from -13.82 in August.

Excellent trend and no funny business so far with the QBO. 

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14 hours ago, CAPE said:

Looks great for getting outdoor projects done with no bugs and nice temps. We are rarely wetter than normal in a Nina. Looking forward to it.

EURO.D-F_H5.10-21.png.96828476c6607daf59970dab5855c030.png

 

Not that the reverse psychology works, but it seems the Euro and UK seasonal outlooks were promising in the 2 of past 3 winters. I guess last winter had some great features (-nao) with no blocking, so who knows.  That be a super warm winter though.. like you said. 

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15 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro can’t get a 5 day forecast right

I'm honestly through with seasonal outlooks at this point. I'm not at all disparaging those who are trying to forecast, and I'll read with some interest, but I will say that I have absolutely zero confidence in seasonal modeling.

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52 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I'm honestly through with seasonal outlooks at this point. I'm not at all disparaging those who are trying to forecast, and I'll read with some interest, but I will say that I have absolutely zero confidence in seasonal modeling.

I think seasonal pattern and temp forecasting has some degree of skill and accuracy. However, I think it is still a low probability of success no matter the method, skill, or experience. 
 

The part that I think has virtually zero reliability is snowfall prediction. I would love to go back and see the long range outlook for 2015-16. My guess with it being a Nino the predictions were normal to slightly cooler temps with normal to above snowfall. If so, the temps would have been off. The snow probably spot on but only because of pure luck. Take away the bomb, which easily could have never happened, and that winter was a total disaster that I am sure would not have been forecasted correctly.

we may end up above normal in temps this year. I don’t know. But we could end up above normal snow as well. Snow is so much about luck and timing. I just don’t think that can be forecast at long range.

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42 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

You currently have snow if you live in Kazakstan. One could hope that the cold in Russia will come over to the other side of the globe by winter. 

It never happened last winter. That was our biggest problem. All of the cold got trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early in the season. 

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2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

It never happened last winter. That was our biggest problem. All of the cold got trapped on the other side of the hemisphere early in the season. 

Because of the blocking. We need to get some of that cold over here and then set up some blocking 

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Because of the blocking. We need to get some of that cold over here and then set up some blocking 

So hang on...can we summarize last year as the cold air not having long enough to get over to our side before the blocking came? (with the secondary problem of an unfortunate split of the vortex in the wrong spot in February). Ya gotta wonder if the first (the cold air getting stuck on the other side of the world) was something random or part of a bigger problem.

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5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So hang on...can we summarize last year as the cold air not having long enough to get over to our side before the blocking came? (with the secondary problem of an unfortunate split of the vortex in the wrong spot in February). Ya gotta wonder if the first (the cold air getting stuck on the other side of the world) was something random or part of a bigger problem.

Negative AO/weak PV historically brings colder air. NA blocking promotes a more favorable storm track for the MA and puts the Highs and Lows to our north in the right places. Last winter our cold air source was largely cut off by the Pac jet flooding Canada with warmth, and there wasn't a significant/sustained -EPO to promote cross polar flow and overcome the anomalous warmth there.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m gonna go with 2%

I’d like to see 20. And I mean degrees. Last year I think I fell below 20 three times. And the lowest was 18 or 19.

eta  I just looked up BWI and they fell below 20 on two mornings last winter. 19 degrees on both 1/30 and 2/21.

Man, last year sucked.

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47 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’d like to see 20. And I mean degrees. Last year I think I fell below 20 three times. And the lowest was 18 or 19.

eta  I just looked up BWI and they fell below 20 on two mornings last winter. 19 degrees on both 1/30 and 2/21.

Man, last year sucked.

We only had 10 in Winchester.

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I’d like to see 20. And I mean degrees. Last year I think I fell below 20 three times. And the lowest was 18 or 19.

eta  I just looked up BWI and they fell below 20 on two mornings last winter. 19 degrees on both 1/30 and 2/21.

Man, last year sucked.

With the hikes in fuel prices (heating) methinks a winter like that is better for the wallet. ;)

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13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So hang on...can we summarize last year as the cold air not having long enough to get over to our side before the blocking came? (with the secondary problem of an unfortunate split of the vortex in the wrong spot in February). Ya gotta wonder if the first (the cold air getting stuck on the other side of the world) was something random or part of a bigger problem.

It's only early October. Are you going to be ok?

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2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

It's only early October. Are you going to be ok?

Better than okay--I won't be tracking (much) because I have no expectations for this winter based on what I've seen. This winter is already mediocre imo barring a fluke--and I'm kinda at peace with that. Will it still kinda suck watching it happen? Somewhat...but this time around I'm not gonna be looking on here as much to hear about pattern change this, potential that, digital snow this, digital snow that....not worth the energy. Just take whatever when it gets here, enjoy scenery snow (at least we can still get that!)

Get off my back, all of ya...I do not understand why everyone acts like I'm the only one who loves snow around here...y'all allow other folks to freak out but somehow when I do it ya wanna send me to the psych ward...y'all are somethin', smh.

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12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Negative AO/weak PV historically brings colder air. NA blocking promotes a more favorable storm track for the MA and puts the Highs and Lows to our north in the right places. Last winter our cold air source was largely cut off by the Pac jet flooding Canada with warmth, and there wasn't a significant/sustained -EPO to promote cross polar flow and overcome the anomalous warmth there.

Thank you for actually answering my question. I feel like I can't even do that here anymore...sheesh

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