July 2021

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

After all the evidence posted by Bluewave over the last couple of months we're still going with, "something must be wrong with Newark's temp readings!!".  

 

Also Newark is mostly in line with interior Queens as posted by Bluewave several times.  

Both are cement jungles isolated from the nearby water…thus skewing temp

readings warmer than surrounding areas.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I wish there were as many complaints about the EWR readings as there were about CPK.

When you see EWR hotter than anywhere else including PHL, something is off

 

Newark is accurate.This summer is an over the top heat pattern. So DCA to Philly is running cooler than points further north. Notice how Corona, Queens reached 103° like Newark at the end of June. The Caldwell station to the NW also has 20 days that reached 90° this year so far.
 

Summer 2021 highs so far

Boston…….100°

Hartford…..99°

LGA…….….100°

Corona……103°

Newark…..103°

Philly……….97°

DCA………..95°

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2021	20	172

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2021	20	172

[the_other_guy]

Per the NWS. And what you find is that when you look at an urban place you can’t meet that standard

https://www.weather.gov/coop/sitingpolicy2

 

Temperature sensor siting: The sensor should be mounted 5 feet +/- 1 foot above the ground. The ground over which the shelter [radiation] is located should be typical of the surrounding area. A level, open clearing is desirable so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow. Do not install the sensor on a steep slope or in a sheltered hollow unless it is typical of the area or unless data from that type of site are desired. When possible, the shelter should be no closer than four times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.). The sensor should be at least 100 feet from any paved or concrete surface.”

 

 

 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.[73/88], or +2.0.

Month to date is  75.0[-2.0].          Should be 77.0[-0.4] by the 21st.

EURO/CMC have  1  90 between them for the next 10 days.    The GFS has 5.{06Z has 7} {12z has 8}    All keep nuisance rains or worse, till about the 19th/20th, in the mix.

71*(96%RH), here at 6am---fog and misty rain.    70* at 7am.

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

100 feet from any paved or concrete surface.”

It may be easier to do this at the airport since the ASOS units are placed on open grassy strips away from the paved surfaces. In the downtown parts of the city, it may be harder to find grassy areas away from buildings or pavement. So you can see how our only really compromised site is Central Park since it sits underneath trees.

 

[tim]

...beach weather this month so far has been NG..many days of clouds, wind,fog  has made the 1st 13 days of July not exactly chamber of commerce weather..i guess it helps the stores..Westhampton Beach village was packed on sunday afternoon with people opting to stay off the beaches.

[doncat]

Only rain here yesterday was from the 2am storm which dropped 0.41"...Mtd of 7.35". 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler today. There could still be a scattered shower or thundershower.  Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Philadelphia to Washington, DC will see readings in the 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer.

[bluewave]

This is probably our first mid-July backdoor pattern with such a strong ridge. In the past, these near record heights were associated with around 100° heat. So all the clouds, onshore flow, and rain are keeping temperatures significantly lower.

[rclab]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler today. There could still be a scattered shower or thundershower.  Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Philadelphia to Washington, DC will see readings in the 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer.

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It may be easier to do this at the airport since the ASOS units are placed on open grassy strips away from the paved surfaces. In the downtown parts of the city, it may be harder to find grassy areas away from buildings or pavement. So you can see how our only really compromised site is Central Park since it sits underneath trees.

 

Good morning Don and BW. I’ve been having a friendly dialogue with John Ceglarek, Project Manager/Central Park Conservancy. I explained to him that I was a non professional member of our weather forum and issues with the accuracy of the readings from the CPK ASOS were often discussed by the Meteorologists, pro forecasters, competent, well versed hobbyists and the basic members like myself. I mentioned to him that from what I could gather, from the discussions, was that the vegetation in, around and encroaching over the ASOS were effecting the accuracy of its temperature readings. His reply stated that “We have not been notified by the Weather Service of any concern they have about the readings for the station or any impact that the surround vegetation may have on it”. I, in reply, asked if the NWS has performed any evaluation of the site, since it’s installation. His response “I am not aware of any assessment that has been performed by the NWS. My understanding is that they would reach out to us if there was any concern about the equipment site”. My original inquiry to the Conservancy is as follows:

“The validity of the temperature readings from the ASOS has been questioned. The American Weather Forum, of which I am a member, often comments on this situation. The comments/observations come from both Meteorologists and well versed hobbyists. The remedy might be as easy as keeping the trees and foliage trimmed around the ASOS site. I dislike the idea that the the long-standing temperature records of the grandest park is in question. Thank you for your time, as always …”.

I believe the sincerity of Mr Ceglarek response and wonder if the board or, at least our sub-forum (with NWS contacts) should pursue this. As always ….

[FPizz]

Thanks rclab.  Someone needs to take a current picture of it and send it to them.  The one pic that I always see posted seems like it has been going around for years.  Maybe having a current pic of the overgrown vegetation would get them to the site to take care of things.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Good morning Don and BW. I’ve been having a friendly dialogue with John Ceglarek, Project Manager/Central Park Conservancy. I explained to him that I was a non professional member of our weather forum and issues with the accuracy of the readings from the CPK ASOS were often discussed by the Meteorologists, pro forecasters, competent, well versed hobbyists and the basic members like myself. I mentioned to him that from what I could gather, from the discussions, was that the vegetation in, around and encroaching over the ASOS were effecting the accuracy of its temperature readings. His reply stated that “We have not been notified by the Weather Service of any concern they have about the readings for the station or any impact that the surround vegetation may have on it”. I, in reply, asked if the NWS has performed any evaluation of the site, since it’s installation. His response “I am not aware of any assessment that has been performed by the NWS. My understanding is that they would reach out to us if there was any concern about the equipment site”. My original inquiry to the Conservancy is as follows:

“The validity of the temperature readings from the ASOS has been questioned. The American Weather Forum, of which I am a member, often comments on this situation. The comments/observations come from both Meteorologists and well versed hobbyists. The remedy might be as easy as keeping the trees and foliage trimmed around the ASOS site. I dislike the idea that the the long-standing temperature records of the grandest park is in question. Thank you for your time, as always …”.

I believe the sincerity of Mr Ceglarek response and wonder if the board or, at least our sub-forum (with NWS contacts) should pursue this. As always ….

It’s more than likely that any NWS outreach occurred prior to Mr. Ceglarek’s tenure, possibly the late 1990s or early 2000s.

[psv88]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Both are cement jungles isolated from the nearby water…thus skewing temp

readings warmer than surrounding areas.

The newark sensor is not even at the airport…it’s located in an adjacent property over grass. Read that statement again.

next, much of the city and NE NJ is a concrete jungle, so the readings are representative of the area. 

[SACRUS]

 

Cloudy most of the day but any clearing for any prolonged gaps/periods should see temps spike to near 90 S/CNJ perhaps north.  Western Atlantic Ridge is pumping the humidity and heat and associated Florida like routine storms/rain.  Wed (7/14_ - Sat (7/17) 850 temps >16c peaking near 18-19C by Fri.  Look for temps in low to mid 90sperhaps an upper 90s Thu or Fri when rain chances are less.

By Sat evening (7/17)  / Sun (7/18) cold front and upper level weakness in the ridge should produce additional rain/clouds to end the weekend and start the work week (7/19)  Western ridge pumps heights centered into the Rockies then Plains and pieces of that heat ride east and delivery more heat into the region by the middle /end of next week. 

 

Overall warm to hot with Florida style humidity and frequent storms continues.  

[SACRUS]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

 

[SACRUS]

Departures through the 12th 

EWR:  +1.4
TTN: +0.9
NYC: -1.1
JFK: -0.5
LGA: -0.2

[forkyfork]

i drive by the newark asos all the time. the grassy area under it isn't as small as some think it is

[uncle W]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s more than likely that any NWS outreach occurred prior to Mr. Ceglarek’s tenure, possibly the late 1990s or early 2000s.

then they don't care about the problem...it could be a question about who will pay for the foilage trimming...

[495weatherguy]

On 7/7/2021 at 2:36 PM, forkyfork said:

what happened to the heat?

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s more than likely that any NWS outreach occurred prior to Mr. Ceglarek’s tenure, possibly the late 1990s or early 2000s.

Yeah, that is probably the case. Recent studies have shown how much lower the temperatures are under an urban tree canopy. The older Central Park observations weren’t located under the canopy like they are now. So it’s no surprise that NYC had more 90° and 100° days back then. This recent study found significant temperature differences between open and forested parts of parks. The differences in Central Park summer high temperatures before 1990 and after seem to match their study. The paper in the link goes into more detail than the news article. The 1990 date is around the time that the canopy began to cover the observation site.

https://www.ncel.net/2019/09/01/canopy-tree-cover-can-drastically-reduce-heat-island-effect/

Results: Researchers found an urban tree canopy of at least 40% results in the most cooling – as much as four to five degrees Celsius (seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit). Anything less than 40% canopy cover results in very small amounts of cooling.

Since this threshold was previously unknown, researchers hope this will guide strategies for increasing tree cover. Trees are often planted in wealthier neighborhoods. Therefore, distributing planting to be more equitable can help to not only lower temperatures but also bring mental and physical health benefits to the community. 

Resources:

• Read the full study through PNAS.

 

[uncle W]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that is probably the case. Recent studies have shown how much lower the temperatures are under an urban tree canopy. The older Central Park observations weren’t located under the canopy like they are now. So it’s no surprise that NYC had more 90° and 100° days back then. This recent study found significant temperature differences between open and forested parts of parks. The differences in Central Park summer high temperatures before 1990 and after seem to match their study. The paper in the link goes into more detail than the news article. The 1990 date is around the time that the canopy began to cover the observation site.

https://www.ncel.net/2019/09/01/canopy-tree-cover-can-drastically-reduce-heat-island-effect/

Results: Researchers found an urban tree canopy of at least 40% results in the most cooling – as much as four to five degrees Celsius (seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit). Anything less than 40% canopy cover results in very small amounts of cooling.

Since this threshold was previously unknown, researchers hope this will guide strategies for increasing tree cover. Trees are often planted in wealthier neighborhoods. Therefore, distributing planting to be more equitable can help to not only lower temperatures but also bring mental and physical health benefits to the community. 

Resources:

• Read the full study through PNAS.

 

did they research night time lows the same way?...its a hard way to radiate with a tree branch hanging over...

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, uncle W said:

did they research night time lows the same way?...its a hard way to radiate with a tree branch hanging over...

They found the effect was greater on daily maximum temperatures than the minimums.

Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 °C (range, 1.1–5.7 °C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60–90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 °C (range, 1.2–3.0 °C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

what happened to the heat?

it hit 90 yesterday and will again tomorrow

[binbisso]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it hit 90 yesterday and will again tomorrow

 Newark was the only area to hit 90ﾟ yesterday The 5 boroughs Long Island most of northern New Jersey lower Hudson Valley were all between 82 and 87ﾟ.  I think we gotta give the 90ﾟ threshold a break.  Normal highs in the urban areas are between 86 and 88, so 90ﾟ is 2 to 4ﾟ above normal. not very special any more especially in warming climate.  It's no different in Winter when a 35ﾟ high is not cold or remarkable when the normal high is 38.  95ﾟ should be the new threshold in this warming climate.   anyway a beautiful 71ﾟ dew point of 67 on July 13th In this new age of global warming

[495weatherguy]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it hit 90 yesterday and will again tomorrow

I guess this is another example of how different the weather is across the area---On LI--yesterday was 82 and overcast, minimal rain, currently 70 and cloudy and muggy.  Was hoping for another heatwave

[binbisso]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Departures through the 12th 

EWR:  +1.4
TTN: +0.9
NYC: -1.1
JFK: -0.5
LGA: -0.2

 I believe those departures are off a bit I know Central Park is -2

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

then they don't care about the problem...it could be a question about who will pay for the foilage trimming...

I am wondering if it would take a scientific journal article on the cooling of NYC summer high temperatures? We have  shown on this forum how there has been a cooling since around 1990. Perhaps a well publicized scientific paper on how the quality of weather observations in our biggest city has been compromised would get the attention need for improvement. 

[nycwinter]

lovely day for the city nice comfortable temps wont hit 80 for almost the middle of july not bad at all..

[gravitylover]

48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it hit 90 yesterday and will again tomorrow

I stayed in the low to mid 70s. It's 71 now.

[forkyfork]

4 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I stayed in the low to mid 70s. It's 71 now.

let's revisit this sunday